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GBP/USD: Upcoming Bearish Breakout?

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The GBP/USD is possibly formatting a head-shoulders-pattern with the neckline ranging from 1.21 to 1.2080. The ‘first shoulder’-high was at 1.2345, so if sterling bulls are unable to climb back above 1.2350 in an attempt to break above 1.2450 and 1.25, chances increase significantly in favor of the bears. A break below 1.2080 and further 1.2020 could open the door for a fall towards 1.1750.

Let’s wait and see.

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GBP/USD: Prepare For Reversals

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Dear Traders,

U.S. President Donald Trump accused China and Russia of devaluing their currencies with the consequence that investors refrained from buying dollars amid concerns about the U.S. policy. The dollar further weakened against the euro and pound.

The British pound was the best performing currency on Monday and rose to a high of 1.4344. While buyers in the GBP/USD were recently able to gain a good profit by the cable’s upward move, we now prepare for pullbacks that could send the pound back towards a test of the 1.4250/70-support. Bear in mind that the pair is in overbought territory, a situation that makes upcoming corrections more likely.

Today we will watch the U.K. employment report at 8:30 UTC which could have an impact on the pound.

The EUR/USD was accompanied by an upward tilt but the euro still refrained from taking out the 1.24-barrier. As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, we expect a higher resistance-zone to come in at 1.2430-50 but for now, a break above 1.24 must be done first. If the euro, however, formats a double-top below 1.24, bearish momentum may gather steam, driving the euro back towards 1.2350 and possibly even 1.23.

The German and Eurozone ZEW Surveys are scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC, but the impact on the euro could be short-lived.

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Will Turn-Around Tuesday Live Up To Its Name Following Bullish Breakouts?

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Dear Traders,

It has been a profitable trading day for both euro and sterling bulls. The euro rose to a five-week high against the dollar and we were thus able to book a good profit by trading our long signal yesterday.

Trading the bullish breakout in the GBP/USD went also very well and the big question among traders is now whether there will be further gains. While momentum is still undeniably bullish, the pound is at overbought levels in larger time frames and traders should therefore prepare for pullbacks in short-term time frames. As long as the pound remains above 1.42 we favor a bullish stance, targeting at higher levels at 1.43 and 1.4350. If the pound falls below 1.4190 we expect it to extend its slide towards 1.4150 and 1.41.

The same is true for the EUR/USD: The euro remains in overbought territory and traders should therefore anticipate upcoming corrections. If the euro remains trading between 1.2490 and 1.24 a short-term uptrend channel remains intact. If the euro, however, drops back below 1.2350, the bias shifts from bullish to neutral.

Moreover, traders should bear in mind that today is Tuesday and while this is a normal weekday the so-called ‘Turnaround Tuesday’ often lived up to its name after significant price breakouts on Monday. In a nutshell, watch out for potential reversals today.

The only piece of economic data will be U.S. Consumer Confidence due at 14:00 UTC.

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EUR And GBP: Bearish Reversal Ahead?

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Dear Traders,

We saw some profit taking Tuesday with both euro and pound giving up some of their recent gains versus the U.S. dollar. We were thus able to pocket some profit with our short entries. The modest rebound happened before both currency pairs were poised for another bullish run towards higher highs. In thin Asia trading the euro took a short glimpse above 1.23 but was unable to hold above that level. The pound sterling climbed to a high of 1.3836 before it dropped back below the 1.38-barrier.

Whether we will see further gains in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD depends on the market’s risk appetite for euros and pounds. The euro recently received a boost from speculation, the ECB could end its bond-buying program earlier than the market currently expects but we bear in mind that it is a sensitive time for the ECB. A strengthening euro could damp prices, giving ECB policy makers an excuse to keep monetary policy steady, at least until after the end of QE, which is set to expire in September.

Apart from fundamental drivers, we keep tabs on technical barriers. On a daily basis, both pairs are still overbought, increasing the chances of steeper corrections. For the time being we expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.2350 and 1.21.

Traders should keep an eye on the Eurozone Consumer Price Report today at 10:00 UTC.

The British pound remained below 1.3850 and as long as that barrier holds, we see chances in favor of a bearish reversal, provided that the cable drops below 1.3730. Lower targets could be around 1.3690 and 1.3610.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co