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Euro Drops On Fears The EU Could Collapse

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Dear Traders,

The euro weakened against the U.S. dollar after investors have been reminded that the French election is one of the biggest risks this year with the prospect of a victory of Marine Le Pen fueling concern that the European Union will collapse. France’s far-right leader Le Pen unveiled a manifesto pledge on Monday in which she said that she would take the country out of the EU should she win. Within this climate of increasing anti-globalism there is not much that is positive and currencies become victims of these policies. The euro fell towards 1.07 and we will now wait for a sustained break below that support-level. If the euro falls below 1.0680 we expect further losses towards 1.0620. On the upside we see a current resistance around 1.0780.

The British pound’s downward movement came to a short-term halt near 1.2425. We are anticipating further losses in the cable and thus focus on a significant break below 1.24. A short-term resistance is however seen around 1.2550.

With no major economic data on the docket, the price action will be determined by political developments and global risk appetite.

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Bearish Momentum To Continue? All Eyes On NFP Numbers

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Yesterday’s Super Thursday disappointed the market’s expectations with the Bank of England’s moderate inflation expectations making a potential rate hike this year less likely. Sterling bulls have hoped for a change in the central bank’s policy stance as well as higher inflation forecasts. However, the opposite turned out to be the case: While growth forecasts were raised slightly higher, inflation forecasts for 2017 were lowered down to 2.7% from 2.8%. Furthermore there was no change in the BoE’s monetary policy stance as Brexit and Trump lead to uncertainty, making it difficult for the BoE to consider higher rates anytime soon.

The pound dropped in response to the ‘less-hawkish’ statement and is currently hovering just above the 1.25 level. From a technical perspective, we now expect further near-term losses in the GBP/USD and still focus on a break below 1.24. Lower targets could be at 1.23 and 1.2270.

The euro traded confined to a narrow 80-pips trading range. While a break above 1.0810 failed to provide any sustained profit, bearish momentum appears to be not yet enough to push the euro significantly lower. We recommend waiting for a break below 1.0730 in order to sell euros towards 1.0680.

Today’s price action will however mainly hinge on the outcome of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC. Economists expect a 175,000 increase in payrolls for January with unemployment likely to remain relatively stable. The focus will also be on wage pressures.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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All Eyes On May’s Speech

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Those who traded yesterday’s consolidation in the GBP/USD had to struggle with volatile but choppy price swings, generating only losses ahead of today’s key event risk. Sterling traders are in the starting blocks for high volatility when U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is scheduled to give a speech on the Brexit approach and we hope for more profitable trading opportunities today. May’s speech will be closely watched as it is designed to set out the government’s position and goals over the upcoming Brexit negotiations. Traders will look for any hints as to whether the U.K. will pursue a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit. The market is currently pricing in a higher likelihood of a hard Brexit approach with the U.K. being likely to pull out of the European Union’s single market for goods and services. May will use her speech to explicitly say she expects the U.K. to leave the single market (hard Brexit), according to a person familiar with the matter. Given the fact that May is expected to be aiming for full separation from the EU, we expect the pound to remain under pressure. Pullbacks may therefore be an attractive opportunity to sell the pound at higher levels. However, we bear in mind that when market’s expectations are very high, there is a greater potential for disappointment and thus there is also a small chance of a short squeeze in the pound. In short, anything can happen today and we recommend traders to prepare for both bullish and bearish scenario even if the risk is to the downside.

PM May’s speech is scheduled for 11:45 UTC.

Until this morning, the pound traded sideways between 1.2085 and 1.1985 and the focus has therefore shifted to breakouts above or below this range. Bearing in mind that Monday’s gap was not yet closed, the pound might tend to test the 1.2170 area before falling back towards 1.1965. A significant break above 1.22 however, could send the pound toward 1.23. On the downside, the 1.1960-level needs to be broken in order to reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum.

Before May’s important speech we have the U.K. Consumer Price report scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC. Analysts are looking for an uptick in inflation while this report alone could help the pound strengthening in short-term time frames. With inflation being on the rise, the Bank of England could intend to raise interest rates in a next move, unless Brexit developments undermine the economy.

Trading in the EUR/USD was very quiet and none of our yesterday’s entries was triggered. Today, euro traders will watch the German ZEW Survey at 10:00 UTC, which could have a impact on the euro. The 1.0685-resistance area remains in focus and if the single currency climbs above that level we may see an extended upward move toward 1.07/1.0715.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Euro And Pound Trade Near Crucial Price Levels

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The biggest story in the market was the sharp decline of the British pound on Monday. Sterling touched its lowest level since October on hardening Brexit talk and we are curious to see whether the 1.21-level will be able to withstand the downward pressure. In case of a dip below 1.21 a next lower target could be at 1.2080 but this should be the lower bound of a short-lived downward trend. Those who bet on a pullback now, should focus on prices above 1.2080 to evaluate their positions. If the pound drops below that level we expect accelerated bearish momentum, driving the pound towards 1.19. In case of pullback in the GBP/USD, we expect the 1.2230-level to act as a short-term resistance. Anyway, yesterday was a profitable trading day for sterling traders with our short entry providing a good gain.

The euro rose towards the upper bound of its current trading range and we will now focus on the 1.0640/60-resistance area. There is a risk that the single currency may overshoot the 1.0670-level and head for 1.0850 following a stronger upward correction. On the downside, the 1.0480-level remains in focus.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Pound Comes Under Selling Pressure After May Comments

/in /by

Dear Traders,

We welcome you to a new trading week. While liquidity returns to the markets, providing a more volatile trading environment, there will be no top-tier economic reports until late in the week. Thus, with no market-moving data scheduled for release until Friday, trading could be quieter and prices more range-bound in the first half of the week.

Those who did a trading break last Friday and did not reinvest weekly profits (as recommended), have not missed out on anything. On the contrary, trading during U.S. payrolls release has once again proved to be more loss-making rather than profitable as high volatile swings bear a high risk for both pending and open orders. The U.S. dollar received a small boost as wage growth rose by 0.4 percent, giving reason for optimism that growth in the U.S. economy is poised to accelerate. While the focus was on wages, monthly payrolls fell short of analysts’ expectations but this decline is not enough to change the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy stance.

The euro tumbled toward the lower bound of 1.05 and we shall now turn our focus to the 1.0480-level. If the euro falls below that support level we expect further losses towards 1.04 and 1.0370. However, considering that the euro recently traded sideways, we anticipate the price action to be limited to a price range between 1.0640 and 1.0340.

The pound’s price action is dominated by political risk and fears of a so-called hard Brexit.The pound sterling traded lower against the greenback after comments by Prime Minister Theresa May on the U.K.’s European Union negotiations. May signaled regaining control of immigration and lawmaking are her Brexit priorities even if that means quitting Europe’s single market. Bearish momentum accelerated this morning, pushing the pound below its crucial support at 1.22. If the currency pair is unable to stabilize above 1.22, we expect further losses towards 1.2120 and 1.21. Looking at the technical picture we see that the descending trend line of the recent downward channel is currently at 1.2120, providing an attractive opportunity to buy sterling towards 1.22. A short-term resistance is however seen at 1.2270.

Apart from a busy docket of scheduled speeches from several central bank officials, the only interesting piece of economic data will be U.S. Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence on Friday.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Thin Liquidity Before The Christmas Break?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

We are entering the final trading period of this year while financial markets are gradually becoming quiet.

Now that top-tier event risk is largely exhausted for the remaining trading days of 2016 we saw some corrective price action last Friday with some profit taking in the U.S. dollar. Nonetheless, there was nothing to be gained for us as currency fluctuations have been modest given the year-end liquidity drain. We recommend securing your monthly and annual profits now and trading at a low risk in the pre-holiday period.

From a technical perspective there is the possibility of further corrective movements in the dollar on the back of profit taking, driving the euro towards 1.0530 while the cable may tend to test the 1.2550-resistance level. Above 1.2570 the pound sterling may head for a test of 1.2650/80. A current support is however seen at around 1.2425.

The euro traded consolidated at around 1.0450 and if it holds above 1.0420 we may see a run for 1.0530. Below 1.04 however, we favor a bearish bias targeting at 1.03.

However we do not expect exaggerated movements within the next days and will take potential profits at smaller targets. The economic calendar is very light in terms of market moving data. The most interesting piece of data could be U.S. Durable Goods Orders alongside the final estimate of third-quarter GDP (Thursday), while the German IFO report scheduled for release today at 9:00 UTC could be worth watching for euro traders.

Furthermore, Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on the state of the job market today at 18:30 UTC.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will U.K. CPI Data Push The Pound Above 1.27?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar weakened against most major currencies on Monday. Ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve statement investors are concerned that US-policymakers were to flag the risk of a strengthening dollar on the U.S. economy, suggesting that the dollar rally has gone too far. Most of the dollar gains have come about as a result of expectations that Trump will enact policies that increase spending as well as spur growth and inflation. It remains to be seen how the political program will look like during Trump’s term as president while the details of an eventual fiscal-spending program are still written in the stars.

The euro tested the 1.0650-level and our yesterday’s long-entry has proved successful. We will now wait for the euro to overcome the 1.0665-barrier in order to focus at higher targets at 1.0710 and 08. On the bottom side, the 1.0470-support remains intact. Euro traders should keep an eye on the ZEW Survey, due for release at 10:00 UTC. The euro might tend to strengthen ahead of that report.

Particular attention will be paid to the British pound and the U.K. Consumer Price report scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC. CPI data is expected to show an uptick in November which is why the pound may appreciate against the greenback ahead of that report. We will focus on an upside break above 1.27, which could drive the pound towards higher targets at 1.2770 and perhaps even 1.2870. A current support is however seen at 1.2530.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Euro And Pound Are Not Able To Maintain High Levels

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar slightly strengthened versus the euro and pound Tuesday. The euro gave up some of its recent gains but was, for the time being, able to hold above the 1.07-mark. With only one day to go before the ECB meeting we do not expect huge market moves in the EUR/USD. Rather, we expect the euro to range-trade between 1.0760 on the upside and 1.0660 on the downside. There are no major important economic reports scheduled for release today, so market participants may stay on the sidelines.

The British pound reversed after peaking at 1.2775 and fell back below 1.27. Recently, sterling was supported by hopes that a hard Brexit can be avoided but the Supreme Court’s ruling on the legitimacy of the U.K. government to trigger Britain’s exit from the EU is still far from done and dusted. From a technical perspective we see next supports around 1.2550 and 1.25 where the pound is probably headed before gaining some ground.

U.K. Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures are scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC and could impact the cable’s price action.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Quiet Trading On Thanksgiving?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The FOMC minutes did not provide any new insights but did confirm the market’s assumption that a December rate hike should be a done deal. The minutes showed that Federal Reserve officials saw a strengthening case to raise interest rates as the labor market improved ‘appreciably’, with some saying a hike should take place next month. The U.S. dollar extended its gains versus the euro while the common currency fell to a fresh one-year low.

As stated in yesterday’s analysis, we now see next support levels at 1.0520 and 1.0470 and if these barriers fall, the next stop could be at parity. A current resistance is however seen at 1.06.

U.S. markets will be closed for Thanksgiving, which is why we expect market movements to be limited amid a low liquidity environment. Let’s see.

The only piece of economic data will be the German IFO index due at 9:00 UTC, which could have a minor impact on the euro.

The British pound remains the only major currency to outperform the U.S. dollar and traded resiliently between 1.2470 and 1.2360. Sterling traders were looking in vain for any profitable movements and so we had to record some losses after three failed sell attempts. However, the technical picture has not changed and we still wait for a break of 1.2515 or 1.2350 respectively.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

The Euro Refrains To Trade Below 1.07

/in /by

Dear Traders,

There was little consistency in the performance of the EUR/USD Tuesday and the euro’s roller coaster ride gave traders no cause for joy. The euro peaked at 1.0816 before it ended the day in negative territory. We went long and short but no movement proved to be sustained. However, the 1.07-support level is still unbroken and as long as the euro remains firmly above that level, we shift our focus to an upside break above 1.0820.

There is no important economic data from the Eurozone today. From the U.S. we have the PPI Report at 13:30 UTC and Industrial Production figures at 14:15 UTC due for release but these reports are not expected to have a dramatic impact on the greenback.

The pound sterling fell towards 1.2380 after a report showed U.K. inflation unexpectedly slowed last month. Meanwhile, BoE policy makers shifted to a neutral stance with Carney saying in testimony that the neutral path is “appropriate” and officials are not considering expansion of any of the Bank of England’s programs. Sterling traders should pay attention to U.K. Employment Report at 9:30 UTC today as any surprises may lead to volatile swings in the GBP/USD. Technically we are waiting for a renewed break below 1.24 in order to sell the pound towards 1.2350. Above 1.2560 however, the bias may shift in favor of the bulls.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co