Posts

Focus On Powell Speech

/in /by

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will give a speech today at 18:30 UTC at the Brookings Institute. His speech with the title Economic Outlook, Inflation, and the Labor Market comes just before the release of the latest U.S. inflation and jobs data. Powell is expected to confirm expectations the Fed will slow its pace of rate hikes next month, even though the fight against inflation is not over yet. If Powell, however, states that interest rates will need to remain elevated for longer to counter high inflation, the U.S. dollar will push higher again.

Our trading ideas for today 30/11/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0380

Short @ 1.0310

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.1990

Short @ 1.1930

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 14440

Short @ 14390

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

Fed Decision: Is ‘Dovish Tightening’ A Done Deal?

/in /by

It’s decision day at the Federal Reserve. A quarter-point rate increase is widely expected, the first since 2018. The market’s focus will be on the Fed’s dot plot and if the dot plot projects more than six interest hikes this year, it would be a hawkish signal, resulting in a stronger U.S. dollar.

However, this decision is a tricky one for Fed Chair Jerome Powell since FOMC members have expressed divergent views especially against the background of uncertainties facing the global economy because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Having mischaracterized inflation as “transitory” until November, the Fed would now have to signal an aggressive rate hike cycle that would have to start with an increase of at least 50bps today to regain some of its lost credibility. However, being an aggressive hawk is not an easy approach as it risks sending the U.S. economy into recession.

The other option, and possibly the more likely scenario today, is “dovish tightening”. A 25bps rate hike and language about maximum policy flexibility on further rate hikes and on the balance sheet.

Whatever the Fed will decide, traders brace for heightened volatility around the decision and press conference at 18:00/18:30 UTC.

EUR/USD – Potential bear-flag to signal further losses ahead?

We are bracing for another leg-down towards 1.07, provided that the euro remains below 1.1060 and breaks below 1.0920. Bulls, in the short-term, will watch for prices above 1.1020 in order to buy euros towards 1.1060 and possibly even 1.11, but be warned, sellers may take the opportunity to jump in at higher price levels.

Our trading ideas for today 16/3/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1010, Short @ 1.0940 (SL 25, TP 100)

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

Is This The Beginning Of A Bear Market?

/in /by

King Dollar has risen against almost everything as investors looked for shelter.

Many traders now question whether the Ukraine war could be the begin of a bear market. Prices whipsawed when the Russian military invaded Ukraine last week but some traders saw it as an opportunity to “buy the invasion”, a behavior that has led to a tremendous reversal in the market. While buying-the-dip gains show investors are piling in, more voices are now warning investors to be careful. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will cause higher inflation which will force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. The invasion also increases the risk of stagflation, when inflation remains high while economic growth and unemployment are also high. The conflict in the middle of Europe could thus mean the end of the bull era of central bank excess and signal the beginning of a bear era of government intervention, social and political polarization and geopolitical isolationism, according to a Friday note from Bank of America Research.

However, while most of the past market declines did not become bear markets, the risk of a bear market is currently higher than at any other time. The sentiment will however depend on developments and may change any day.

EUR/USD – Opening with a downside gap

The down gap indicates a continuation of the downtrend but before bears assume the downtrend to resume, we may see short covering filling the gap. In other words, we may see a correction towards 1.1240 before selling pressures increases again. Nevertheless, if the euro drops below 1.1090, we brace for a decline towards 1.09.

DAX – Heading South

The index opened with a downside gap and could now face the lower support area at around 13600. Short-term bulls will watch out for prices above 14400 with higher targets seen at 14500 and 14800.

Our buy position today at 14210 was closed in profit at 14250.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

Hawkish Fed Boosts U.S. Dollar

/in /by

And at the end of the Federal Reserve story, traders that had hoped for a short squeeze in some USD-crosses left disappointed. Thus, we had to be satisfied with some small gains when trading the dollar’s rise.

Overall, yesterday’s FOMC decision was viewed as hawkish. As a result, bond yields moved higher and the U.S. dollar appreciated. Fed chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was ready to raise interest rates in March (which was expected) but the most hawkish take-away is that Fed policy makers didn’t rule out moving at every meeting to tackle the highest inflation in a generation.  In other words, the central bank is willing to hike faster given high inflation than ease in the face of downside surprises.

The greenback advanced. Let’s briefly look at the next targets in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

EUR/USD: Next bearish target is the 1.12-handle. If the pair breaks below 1.1180, we will turn our focus to a next medium-term target at 1.10. As long as the resistance at 1.14 remains intact, the outlook is bearish.

GBP/USD: Support area between 1.34-1.3370 is still intact. Bears will wait for a break below 1.3350 in order to sell sterling towards 1.32. A current resistance-area is however seen between 1.3670-1.37.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Try out our new signals for cryptocurrencies:

ETH/USD

Long @ 2470

Short @ 2380

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

Could The U.S. Dollar Rebound Prove Short-lived?

/in /by

The U.S. dollar extended its gains versus other major peers Thursday after the Federal Reserve marked a turning point in the communication to the market from ultra-dovish to a hawkish tilt. However, while a Fed rate hike is still a long way off, the rebound in the dollar could be limited in the short-term.

EUR/USD: The euro dipped slightly below 1.19 but was able to hold above that threshold until at least Friday morning. We see a short-term resistance now at 1.1950 followed by a crucial resistance at 1.20 – which served as a former crucial support in this pair. Falling below 1.1860 however, bears may push the euro lower towards 1.18.

GBP/USD: The cable tested a lower target at 1.39 from where it stabilized. Below 1.3890, a next bearish target could be 1.3860 followed by 1.38. Given that the pair is in oversold territory, a pullback becomes more likely now with short-term resistances seen at 1.40 and 1.4050.

DAX: The index traded recently sideways and made it difficult for traders to benefit from small sideways swings. We nee to see a break above 15810 in order to shift the focus towards a higher target at 15880. A support area is however seen between 15590 and 15530.

Have a wonderful weekend.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

 

 

 

Wait-And-See Approach Ahead of U.S. Job Report

/in /by

The market was relatively quiet Wednesday as market participants took a wait-and-see approach ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report. We could see some bigger moves today as we have ADP employment change (12:15 UTC) and the ISM index (14:00 UTC) scheduled for release, offering a small foretaste of what to expect from Friday’s payrolls. If ISM data disappoints, we could see the U.S. dollar depreciating with traders positioning for weaker job growth.

The British pound found a slightly lower support at 1.4110 rather than 1.4120 but remained overall sideways in short-term time frames. We expect a lower support to come in at around 1.4080 whereas a break below 1.4070 could open the door for larger losses. On the upside, the 1.4340-mark is seen as a next bullish target.

The EUR/USD trades flat. Above 1.2250, the next target is 1.23, whereas below 1.2170, the focus shift towards 1.21.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

U.S. Dollar Strengthens And Short Traders Profit

/in /by

The U.S. dollar advanced against other major currency pairs on Monday and short traders were able to take some profits.

EUR/USD: As anticipated in yesterday’s analysis, the euro broke out of its narrow trading range and slid towards its lower support at 1.2050. For more bearish action we will need to see a drop below 1.2040. A short-term resistance is now seen at around 1.21.

GBP/USD: The British pound slid below 1.3660 but that short-lived dip was not enough to invigorate fresh bearish momentum. In case of a break below 1.3650 we see a next lower target at 1.3620. If the cable holds above 1.3660, traders should anticipate upward swings towards 1.3760.

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

 

U.S. Dollar zieht sich zurück – weitere Gewinne im EUR/USD und GBP/USD?

/in /by

Dienstags stärkster Performer war der Euro, welcher in Richtung seines aktuellen 1.2150-Widerstandes kletterte. Die jüngste Stärke im U.S. Dollar war bisher nur von kurzer Dauer und sollte es dem Euro gelingen, oberhalb von 1.2180 auszubrechen, könnten wir eventuell weitere Gewinne gen 1.2270 zu Gesicht bekommen. Die Chancen stehen momentan jedenfalls zugunsten weiterer Bullenbewegung im EUR/USD.

Die künftige U.S. Finanzministerin Janet Yellen unterstützte derweil Bidens Billionen Hilfspaket in ihrer gestrigen Anhörung vor dem Senat und sprach sich gegen eine gezielte Schwächung des Dollar-Kurses aus. Yellens Kommentare unterstützen die Reflationshoffnungen und dienen am Markt als Hintergrund für mehr Risikobereitschaft. Der U.S. Dollar erweiterte seinen Rückzug.

Heute Nachmittag wird Joe Biden als neuer U.S. Präsident in Washington eingeschworen. Ob dies jedoch einen Einfluss auf die Volatilität am Markt hat, bleibt abzuwarten.

GBP/USD

Das Pfund konnte sich oberhalb von 1.36 stabilisieren nachdem ein Halt bei 1.3520 gefunden wurde. Seitdem sich das Paar allerdings kurzfristig wieder im überkauften Bereich befindet, rechnen wir nun mit Korrekturbewegungen.  Die 1.3550-Region könnte dabei als Unterstützung dienen. Auf der Oberseite könnten potentielle Gewinne hingegen bis 1.3750-80 begrenzt bleiben.

  • Hier können Sie unseren Signal Service abonnieren

Wir wünschen gute Trades!

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

Copyright © 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Folgen Sie uns über die sozialen Medien:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

Investors Look Past Violence in Washington, Focus Turns to NFP Data

/in /by

Investors have mostly looked past the violence in Washington as they concentrate on the prospect for more economic stimulus and the likelihood that calm will prevail as Joe Biden takes the presidency.

The U.S. dollar steadied after accelerating against its major peers Thursday.

Today, all eyes will turn to the release of the nonfarm payrolls report at 13:30 UTC. The U.S. jobs report is forecast to show a sharp slowdown in hiring. While a softer release is normally dollar-negative, the impact now depends on the overall positive prevailing mood in the market since market participants have looked past weak data throughout last year.

 

The DAX surpassed the 14000 mark and more gains could be in play. A next target is 14250 but bear in mind that the market is never straight-lined, which is why the index could first test the 14000-level as a new support before we see another leg up.

We wish you good trades and a peaceful weekend!

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

 

 

Quiet Trading

/in /by

Dear Traders,

U.S. inflation data came in line with expectations whereupon the dollar gave up some of its gains. However, the greenback had a rather mixed day while it ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged against the euro and British pound.

Generally speaking, it seems that many market participants refrain from taking any larger positions now amidst the liquidity drain during the summer months. Therefore, we recommend to trade at a low risk or stay at the sidelines as long as risk events are lacking.

The Fed will deliver its monetary policy report to Congress today at 15:00 UTC.

We wish you a wonderful weekend.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co