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Risk-Off Mode

Bearish momentum accelerated, sending our trading instruments towards lower targets.

The reason behind the steep sell-off is the bond sell-off and rising yields in the U.S., buoying the dollar while making risk assets unattractive.

The euro knew no other direction than south and hit the crucial 1.05-support area. A downside break below 1.0480 could spark fresh bearish momentum towards 1.0290 and further 1.01. A current resistance is however seen at around 1.07.

The pound sterling fell below 1.2170 and headed towards 1.21. Our next lower target is 1.20 now.

The DAX slid below 15400, heading towards 15100. Watch out for prices below 15070 now. On the topside, a current resistance comes in at 15400.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 28/9/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0535

Short @ 1.0485

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2210

Short @ 1.2125

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15310

Short @ 15210

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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After Hawkish Fed Focus Shifts To BoE

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% and left the door open for one more rate hike before the end of the year. The Summary of Economic Projections showed 50bp fewer rate cuts in 2024 than previously indicated. The Fed sees just two rate cuts next year which would put the funds rate around 5.1 percent.

The U.S. dollar rose in the aftermath of the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and pushed both euro and pound sterling lower in turn.

This morning we see GBP/USD trading around 1.23. Below 1.2270 we expect further losses.

The focus today shifts to the Bank of England rate decision (due 13:00 UTC) while the BoE could go either way. Previous expectations were firmly in favor of another 25bp rate hike today but yesterday’s U.K. Consumer Price Index showed softening inflationary pressures which is why market pricing significantly shifts towards a rate pause now. However, according to a statement from UK Chancellor Hunt saying that “Inflation is still too high” and “It’s all the more important to stick to our plan to halve inflation”. In other words, a BoE 25bp rate hike is still well in the cards.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 21/9/23:

 

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2380

Short @ 1.2290

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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All Eyes On The Fed

Very little movement was seen in both pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD in the beginning of the week and before the FOMC meeting. In the euro we currently focus on a trading range between 1.08 and 1.06 while in the cable it will be interesting whether the pound also drops below 1.2330 and further towards 1.23. On the upside, resistance is seen at around 1.2550.

Today is Federal Reserve decision day and it is widely expected that the central bank will pause rate hikes. Instead, the focus will be on fresh economic projections and the dot plot forecast and whether another 2023 hike is in the cards. Traders expect that the Fed’s tightening campaign has ended. Thus, the U.S. dollar will rise if there are signals for further tightening, triggering a hawkish repricing of rate expectations.

The Fed decision and release of economic projections is scheduled for 18:00 UTC followed by the press conference 30 minutes later.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 20/9/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0715

Short @ 1.0660

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2435

Short @ 1.2330

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15740

Short @ 15640

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Nach U.S. Dollarstärke etwas Erholung für Euro und Pfund?

Die vergangene Woche war durch einen stärkeren US-Dollar aufgrund höherer Treasury-Renditen gekennzeichnet, was sowohl den Euro als auch das britische Pfund nach unten drückte.

Aus technischer Sicht haben beide Währungspaare sekundäre Abwärtstrendkanäle ausgebildet, die nun eine gewisse Erleichterung für den Euro und das Pfund Sterling darstellen könnten.

EUR/USD

Der Euro berührte 1,0686, was der unteren absteigenden Trendlinie eines kurzfristigen Abwärtskanals entspricht. Oberhalb von 1,0760 stehen die Chancen gut für die Bullen mit einem höheren Ziel bei etwa 1,0840. Auf der Unterseite erwarten wir, dass die 1,0650-Unterstützung etwas Halt bieten wird.

Beim GBP/USD zeigt sich fast das gleiche Bild wie beim Euro. Nach dem jüngsten Tief bei 1,2445 könnten die Bären eine Verschnaufpause einlegen, so dass die Bullen die 1,2550 und 1,2630 anpeilen könnten. Sollte das Pfund jedoch unter 1,2440 fallen, liegt die nächste wichtige Unterstützung bei 1,24.

Was ist für diese Woche wichtig?

Am Mittwoch richtet sich das Augenmerk auf den US-Inflationsbericht. Es wird mit einem gemischten Bericht gerechnet: Die Kerninflation dürfte sich abschwächen, während die Gesamtinflationsrate von 3,2 Prozent auf 3,6 Prozent steigen dürfte.

Am Donnerstag richten sich alle Augen auf die Zinsentscheidung der Europäischen Zentralbank. Bullen und Bären sind geteilter Meinung über die diesmonatige Entscheidung, während die Preise eher in Richtung einer Zinspause tendieren. Die wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen verschlechtern sich, so dass dieser Monat die letzte Gelegenheit für die EZB sein könnte, die Zinsen zu erhöhen.

Am Donnerstag werden wir mehr wissen.

Wir wünschen allen eine gute und erfolgreiche Woche.

 

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

Copyright © 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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After U.S. Dollar Strength Relief For The Euro And Pound?

The last week was characterized by a strengthening U.S. dollar due to higher Treasury yields, pushing both euro and British pound lower in turn.

Looking at the technical picture, both currency pairs formatted secondary downtrend channels which now could be a reason providing some relief for the euro and sterling.

EUR/USD

The euro touched 1.0686 which corresponds with the lower descending trendline of a short-term downside channel. Above 1.0760 chances are in favor of bulls with a higher target at around 1.0840. On the downside we expect that the 1.0650-support will provide some hold.

Like the euro, we almost see the same picture in the GBP/USD. After a recent low at 1.2445, bears could take a breather, allowing bulls to go for 1.2550 and 1.2630. If, however, the pound falls below 1.2440, the next crucial support lies at 1.24.

What is important for this week?

On Wednesday the focus turns to the U.S. inflation report. A mixed report is expected with core inflation seen weakening while the headline rate is estimated to rise from 3.2 percent to 3.6 percent.

On Thursday all eyes turn to the European Central bank rate decision. Bulls and bears are divided on this month’s decision while pricing is skewed towards a rate pause. Economic conditions deteriorate so this month might be the last opportunity for the ECB to raise rates.

We will know more on Thursday.

We wish everyone a good and successful week ahead.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Quiet Start To The New Week?

Friday’s U.S. jobs data came in slightly higher than expected while the unemployment rate jumped to 3.8 percent from previous 3.5 percent. The U.S. dollar strengthened across the board which was mainly due to higher treasury yields. U.S. markets are closed today due to Labour Day holiday which could lead to lighter trading volumes and a quieter start to the new week.

EUR/USD – Things are not looking good for the euro

After a failed bullish attempt to break the 1.0950-barrier last week, the single currency fell back towards 1.0770. Chances are in favor of more bearish momentum towards 1.0660, but more importantly 1.05.

GBP/USD

Traders will pay attention to a break below the 200-day-EMA at 1.2540 in order to sell the pound towards 1.2370. We favor a bearish stance in this pair as long as 1.27 remains intact.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Händler bereiten sich diese Woche auf erhöhte Volatilität vor

Nach mehreren Tagen mit gedämpften Handelsbedingungen wird die Volatilität in dieser Woche wahrscheinlich zunehmen, da wichtige Zentralbankentscheidungen auf der Tagesordnung stehen.

Es wird allgemein erwartet, dass die Federal Reserve die Zinssätze am Mittwoch um 25 Basispunkte anheben wird. Das Hauptaugenmerk der Händler wird auf dem weiteren Kurs der Fed liegen. Sollte die Zentralbank eine weitere Zinserhöhung signalisieren, wird der US-Dollar Auftrieb erhalten.

Am Donnerstag wird auch von der Europäischen Zentralbank eine Anhebung der Leitzinsen um einen Viertelpunkt erwartet, doch im Gegensatz zum US-Dollar könnte der Euro Gefahr laufen, stark zu fallen. Angesichts der Verschlechterung des Wachstums in der Eurozone könnten die Währungshüter der EZB weniger entschlossen klingen, die Geldpolitik weiter zu straffen.

Zu guter Letzt werden die Händler am Freitag die PCE-Daten für Juni bewerten. Ein höherer Wert würde für eine weitere Straffung der US-Notenbank sprechen und somit dem Dollar zugute kommen.

 

Sommerflaute: Wir raten Anlegern, nicht zu viel zu investieren oder eine Handelspause einzulegen, da die Volatilität in den Sommermonaten Juli und August in der Regel auf einem sehr niedrigen Niveau bleibt. Bei niedriger Volatilität gibt es mehr zu verlieren als zu gewinnen.

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

Copyright © 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Traders Brace For Higher Volatility This Week

After several days of muted trading conditions, volatility is likely to increase this week, with major central bank decision on tab.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25bp on Wednesday. Traders’ focus will be on the forward guidance. If the Fed signals a further hawkish bias, the U.S. dollar will receive a boost.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank is also expected to deliver a quarter-point hike but unlike the U.S. dollar, the euro could be at risk of a sharp drop. Given the deterioration of growth in the eurozone, ECB policy makers may sound less committed about further tightening.

Last but not least, traders will assess the June PCE data on Friday. A higher reading would argue in favor of additional Fed tightening, and thus, benefit the greenback.

 

Summer doldrums: We advise traders not invest too much or doing a trading break since volatility typically remains at very muted levels during the summer months of July and August. When volatility is low, there is more to lose than to gain.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

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Bullish Bias

We saw some bullish breakouts yesterday with the pound sterling rising towards 1.30 and the euro breaking above 1.11. Also, the DAX headed, as expected, towards 16000 and finds itself currently at around 16050.

The reason for the bullish bias was a slower-than-expected U.S. inflation print in June. This reinforced the market’s assumption of a nearing end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. The greenback thus weakened against other peers.

Traders should brace for upcoming corrections in short-term time frames, even though the latest bullish moves appeared to be strong – paving the way for a continuation of the uptrend.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 13/7/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1160

Short @ 1.1125

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3020

Short @ 1.2980

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 16060

Short @ 15970

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

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Further U.S. Dollar Weakness Ahead?

Friday’s U.S. Job report surprised to the downside with 209k versus a 225k forecast. The latest job print validated market expectations of a last 25bp Federal Reserve rate hike this month to conclude the overall hiking cycle. The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro and British pound.

Let’s take a look at the technical picture.

GBP/USD – The start of a bullish continuation?

The pound strongly rose towards 1.2850- the recent resistance-area – on the back of a weakening dollar. Looking at larger time frames, we pencil in a next higher target at 1.30 – provided that the pair holds above 1.26 (the lower ascending trendline). However, we bear in mind that the pair entered overbought territory, making it more vulnerable to corrections.

EUR/USD – Hiding within a consolidation range

There are more interesting things in the market than watching the euro’s sideways movement. The pair remains consolidated in a 500-pips trading range between 1.11 and 1.06. Bulls will focus on a recent support at 1.0850 and as long as it holds, we could see a test of the upper resistance area.

DAX – Breaking below 15600

For the first time in three months, the index broke below its recent support at 15600. Given the strength of the latest downward move we expect some further downside momentum toward at least 15400. For a bullish return, it would need a significant break above 15700. A higher target could then be at 16000.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

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