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Final Working Week of 2024

This is the final working week of 2024 and investors were cautious ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

The Fed is set to decide its interest rates on Wednesday, where a 25 basis points cut is largely priced in. However, markets were cautious about the Fed’s long-term rate trajectory as inflation has remained a major concern. Sticky inflation figures last week have clouded the long-term rate outlook. The focus on Wednesday will thus be on the updated rate projections.  Fed chair Jerome Powell’s remarks last month, highlighting that downside risks to the labor market had diminished while inflation remained more persistent than anticipated, have traders on edge for a potential hawkish cut. The Fed’s forward guidance will therefore be key. If the central bank maintains its projection of four 25bp cuts next year, it could stoke concerns about its willingness to finish the inflation fight.

The EUR/USD struggled to find a direction and remained sideways between 1.06 and 1.04. Traders hope for the Fed decision to ignite volatility.

Also, the GBP/USD took a breather from its recent downtrend and trended between 1.2850 and 1.26. In case of a renewed break below 1.2590, we pencil in next lower targets at 1.25 and 1.24.

 

We wish you a happy Christmas season and the best of luck and success in the new year!

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Focus On U.S. CPI

Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data did little to deter bets on a December rate cut this week.

Elsewhere, a major regime change in Syria will entail for geopolitics in the Middle East, after rebel forces ousted President Bashar al-Assad.

This week, the focus will also be on the consumer price index, due on Wednesday. Sticky inflation would give the Federal Reserve less impetus to cut interest rates aggressively. The Fed is expected to cut be 25bp next week, but to slow its pace of rate cuts in 2025 given sticky inflation and a strong labor market.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank is anticipated to cut rates by another 25bp amid meager eurozone growth.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Euro Falls To Two-Year Low

On Friday we saw a sharp downside breakout in the EUR/USD that has sent the currency pair as low as 1.0332 from where it swiftly recovered back to the former support at 1.05.

Some of the reasons for the euro’s downside was the escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war ahead of potential Trump-led ceasefire discussions in January 2025 while another reason for the slump was weak data illustrating the weak state of the eurozone economy.

If the euro falls back below 1.04, we see a next lower target at 1.0220. On the other side, if the pair is able to stabilize above 1.0550 again, we see increased chances for a correction towards 1.06 and 1.07.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Euro And Cable: U.S. Dollar Correction Ahead?

We saw a strong U.S. dollar rally following the U.S. election but a correction seems to be inevitable now, which is why caution is warranted when chasing the current rally much further. However, the overall momentum remains bearish in both currency pairs and with the incoming U.S. President Donald Trump policy mix, the markets will probably favor a strong dollar.

We have penciled in the next lower targets in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

EUR/USD: The euro dropped until the crucial support at 1.05 from where it took a breather. Since the 1.05 area is seen a strong support, we marked a next lower target at 1.0460 but remain cautious in terms of further lower targets for now. On the upside, an important resistance is seen at 1.0770.

GBP/USD: Remaining below 1.27 would see increased odds for a further leg down towards 1.23 and probably even 1.20. If the cable is, however, able to stabilize above 1.28, the trend would return to neutral.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Euro Tilts Downwards

The euro has been pressured by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals for tariffs on imports, which could hurt European exports and risk a global trade war.

Furthermore, political uncertainty remained a drag as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he would be willing to call a vote of confidence before Christmas, paving the way for snap elections following the collapse of his governing coalition.

The EUR/USD was stuck at 1.07. Watch out for price breaks either above 1.0770-80 or below 1.0680.

GBP/USD: The cable is considered to be within a downward trend channel as long as it remains below 1.30. A new lower target would be around 1.2820.

On Thursday we will watch the U.S. consumer price reading, which could, in case inflation comes in above the 0.3 percent forecast, further reduce the chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Dollar Rally Loses Steam, Focus On Fed

Donald Trump will be, once again, the next president of the USA and the U.S. dollar soared, at least in the beginning of yesterday’s early vote counting. Now it appears as if the dollar rally loses steam. Investors now look to the Federal Reserve decision later int the day for more cues on interest rates.

The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25bp today but the future rate outlook remains uncertain in the face of a Trump presidency.

EUR/USD: As long as the euro remains below 1.0830 but more importantly below 1.09, chances are in favor of a further dollar rally. Watch out for a break below 1.0680.

GBP/USD: 1.30 remains an important resistance for the pound. A break below 1.2830 could lead to a next leg lower towards 1.2650.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

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Trump Victory Likely

Donald Trump is now expected to win the U.S. election and the U.S. dollar strengthens.

Our last sell order in the EUR/USD was stopped out with a profit of 50 pips this morning. Currently we still have an open sell order in the GBP/USD. Let’s wait and see.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 6/11/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0760

Short @ 1.0725

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2880

Short @ 1.2840

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 19470

Short @ 19230

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 100

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Fasten Your Seatbelts For A Volatile Election Night

It’s one more trading session before Tuesday as U.S. voters choose their next president and traders are in the starting blocks for a long and volatile election night tomorrow. However, the winner might not be known for days after tomorrow’s voting ends.

The polls signal a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and as long as there is no signal for a clear leader, the U.S. dollar tends to weaken. Also, a softer-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls reading last Friday buoyed Federal Reserve rate cut bets and thus, weakens the greenback. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bp on Thursday.

Regarding the outcome of the U.S. election, it is widely considered that a Trump win will be positive for the dollar. The most impactful outcome for the market, however, would be a Trump presidency with full control of the Congress. A Harris win and a split Congress would likely result in a U.S. dollar sell-off.

We wish everyone very profitable trades for tomorrow and the days ahead. We will be publishing daily trading signals Tuesday.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Der Countdown für die US-Wahl – was zu erwarten ist

Die Marktdynamik scheint nun etwas ins Stocken geraten zu sein, da die große Erwartung auf die bevorstehenden US-Präsidentschaftswahlen (5. November) und die Sitzung der Federal Reserve (6./7. November) die Anleger in Atem hält.

In den kommenden Wochen werden wir eine erhöhte Volatilität erleben.

Anstehende US-Wahlen (5. November)

In der Vergangenheit hat der Dollar im Vorfeld von US-Wahlen seine Muskeln spielen lassen, da die Nachfrage nach sicheren Häfen aufgrund der Ungewissheit über den Wahlausgang anstieg – ein Muster, das sich in den kommenden Wochen wiederholen könnte.

Countdown für die US-Wahl:

  • Ein Sieg Trumps dürfte dem Dollar zunächst Auftrieb geben, während ein Sieg Harris eine kurzfristige Schwäche auslösen könnte. Experten warnen jedoch davor, darauf zu wetten, dass die Bewegung unmittelbar nach dem Wahlergebnis bis ins Jahr 2025 anhalten wird.
  • Ein sauberer Wahlsieg der Republikaner, der den Weg für mehr fiskalische Anreize ebnet, wird kurzfristig als am günstigsten für den Dollar angesehen. In Bezug auf die Geldpolitik würden Trumps Kernmaßnahmen in Bezug auf Zölle, Einwanderung und Steuern zu einem inflationäreren Ausblick in den USA führen und die Aussichten auf aggressive Zinssenkungen der Federal Reserve im Laufe des Zyklus verringern.
  • Im Falle einer gespaltenen Regierung würde eine Trump-Präsidentschaft wahrscheinlich immer noch eine anfängliche Dollar-Rallye auslösen, aber in diesem Szenario fehlt die Erwartung einer fiskalischen Lockerung, die ein sauberer Wahlsieg mit sich bringen würde.
  • Ein demokratischer „Clean Sweep“ könnte jedoch zu einer „Schleuderkurve“ für den Dollar führen, wobei sich die anfängliche Schwäche bis 2025 umkehren könnte, da die Märkte verschiedene Formen der fiskalischen Stimulierung einpreisen.
  • Eine Harris-Präsidentschaft mit geteilter Regierung wird als ultimatives „Status-quo-Ergebnis“ angesehen und könnte zu einer anfänglichen Dollarschwäche führen, hätte aber wahrscheinlich keine dauerhaften Auswirkungen auf die Währung.

 

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Copyright © 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

 

The U.S. Election Countdown – What To Expect

The market’s momentum now appeared to be somewhat stalling, as anticipation of the upcoming U.S. presidential election (November 5) and the Federal Reserve meeting (November 6-7) kept investors wary.

We will see increased volatility in the coming weeks!

! Upcoming U.S. elections (November 5)

The dollar has historically flexed its muscles in the run-up to U.S. elections, driven by rising safe-haven demand amid uncertainty about the election outcome—a pattern that could repeat itself in the coming weeks.

U.S. election countdown:

A Trump victory is likely boosting the greenback initially, while a Harris win may trigger short-term weakness, but experts warn against betting that any immediate post-result move will likely continue into 2025.

A Republican clean sweep, which smooths the path for more fiscal stimulus is seen as the most bullish for the greenback in the short term. In regard to monetary policy, Trump’s core policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes would produce a more inflationary outlook in the U.S., diminishing prospects for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts over the cycle.

In the event of a divided government, a Trump presidency would still likely trigger an initial dollar rally but this scenario lacks the fiscal easing expectations that a clean sweep would bring.

A Democratic clean sweep, however, could lead to a “sling-shot path” for the dollar, with initial weakness potentially reversing in 2025 as markets price in different forms of fiscal stimulus.

A Harris presidency with divided government is viewed as the ultimate “status-quo outcome” and might see some initial dollar weakness but would likely not have lasting implications for the currency.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co