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Quiet Trading

Dear Traders,

U.S. inflation data came in line with expectations whereupon the dollar gave up some of its gains. However, the greenback had a rather mixed day while it ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged against the euro and British pound.

Generally speaking, it seems that many market participants refrain from taking any larger positions now amidst the liquidity drain during the summer months. Therefore, we recommend to trade at a low risk or stay at the sidelines as long as risk events are lacking.

The Fed will deliver its monetary policy report to Congress today at 15:00 UTC.

We wish you a wonderful weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Will Payrolls Hurt Or Help The U.S. Dollar?

Dear Traders,

While Thursday proved to be a volatile trading day, the volatile but choppy swings in the market were not to our liking. Entries were triggered and stopped out due to heightened volatility but there was little follow-through on either side.

The U.S. dollar gained traction ahead of yesterday’s FOMC minutes but the statement did not alter rate hike expectations. While the Fed saw gradual rate hikes as needed given a very strong U.S. economy, some Fed members are concerned about intensified risks around trade policy.

The focus now shifts to the U.S. NFP report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Pound Surges On BoE Rate Hike Speculation

Dear Traders,

The Bank of England delivered a hawkish twist at yesterday’s BoE meeting and the British pound responded with a short squeeze towards 1.3270. The MPC voted 6-3 to hold rates steady, but the fact that there were three dissents voting in favor of an immediate rate hike leaves room for speculation about a rate increase in August. Thus, odds for a rate hike at the next BoE decision in August have increased to 45 percent from 33 percent, which in turn pushed the pound sterling towards higher price levels.

Following yesterday’s short squeeze, we may now see some consolidated movement between 1.33-1.32. If the pound is, however, able to overtake the 1.33-handle we expect a higher resistance at 1.34. Traders should generally expect more strength in the pound as we approach the BoE August meeting.

As for the U.S. dollar, the last trading session was dominated by intense selling pressure with prices rebounding off an 11-month high. We will keep tabs on the technical picture but will also take into account volatile fundamental themes such as escalating trade tensions between the US and China which are continuing to roil the markets in the near-term.

The euro benefited from the selling pressure in the greenback and recovered some losses after sellers got shy as the euro approached the 1.15-boundary.

Technically speaking, we still see the EUR/USD confined to a sideways trading range between 1.17 – 1.15.  As long as this range holds, the outlook remains neutral. For the bias to slightly shift in favor of the bulls, we would need to see a sustained break above 1.1730 with higher resistances coming in at 1.1850 and 1.19.

Have a beautiful weekend.

 

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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GBP/USD: Prepare For Reversals

Dear Traders,

U.S. President Donald Trump accused China and Russia of devaluing their currencies with the consequence that investors refrained from buying dollars amid concerns about the U.S. policy. The dollar further weakened against the euro and pound.

The British pound was the best performing currency on Monday and rose to a high of 1.4344. While buyers in the GBP/USD were recently able to gain a good profit by the cable’s upward move, we now prepare for pullbacks that could send the pound back towards a test of the 1.4250/70-support. Bear in mind that the pair is in overbought territory, a situation that makes upcoming corrections more likely.

Today we will watch the U.K. employment report at 8:30 UTC which could have an impact on the pound.

The EUR/USD was accompanied by an upward tilt but the euro still refrained from taking out the 1.24-barrier. As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, we expect a higher resistance-zone to come in at 1.2430-50 but for now, a break above 1.24 must be done first. If the euro, however, formats a double-top below 1.24, bearish momentum may gather steam, driving the euro back towards 1.2350 and possibly even 1.23.

The German and Eurozone ZEW Surveys are scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC, but the impact on the euro could be short-lived.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Geopolitical Tensions Lead To Risk-Aversion In The Market

Dear Traders,

Yesterday’s U.S. inflation data and March FOMC minutes took a backseat to geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Syria. U.S. President Trump warned Russia of incoming airstrikes on Syria for the Assad regime’s suspected use of chemical weapons. The prospect of U.S. military action against Syria have led to broad-based risk aversion in the market with Gold benefiting from its reputation as a safe-haven investment.

From a technical perspective there was nothing to gain for day traders in the Forex market with the U.S. CPI data and FOMC having only a limited impact on yesterday’s price action amidst the risk-off mode in the market.

As long as the risk of military conflict between Russia and the U.S. in Syria remains very high, we may see a lackluster price development in the market which provides little profitable trading opportunities.

Looking at the technical daily chart in both major currency pairs we see that near-term momentum is deep in overbought territory which is why we are looking for upcoming pullbacks.

EUR/USD: A drop below 1.2330 could open the door for accelerated bearish momentum towards 1.23 and 1.2250. However, given the overall uptrend buyers may swoop in at lower levels following a potential pullback. On the topside, the euro would need to take out the 1.24-hurdle to spark fresh bullish momentum towards 1.2430 and 1.2470.

Euro traders should keep an eye on the ECB minutes which are due for release today at 11:30 UTC.

GBP/USD: The pound refrained from stabilizing above 1.42 and dropped back towards 1.4160. We now expect a lower support zone to come in between 1.4120-1.4080. A current resistance is however seen at 1.4270.

Daily Forex Signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Further U.S. Dollar Strength Ahead? Waiting For NFP Outcome

Dear Traders,

Bullish exposure seems to be fading ahead of the March U.S. employment report with bears gaining control of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. However, we are hesitant in our assessment of further dollar strength as we know that payrolls can catch traders on the wrong foot.

While U.S. job growth is expected to have slowed last month, the jobless rate was forecast to have fallen to 4.0 percent amid stronger wage growth. If the latter headline figure meets or even exceeds expectations it might be dollar-positive but traders should be careful. There is plenty of room for a surprise and volatile swings can make today’s trading difficult.

Sign-up for our professional day trading support if you want to know how we trade the NFP report.

The NFP Report is due at 12:30 UTC.

GBP/USD

The worst performing currency was the British pound which dropped below its crucial support at 1.40 and extended its slide towards 1.3965. As mentioned in previous analysis, our focus now shifts to a lower target of 1.3880, provided that the pound remains below 1.4050. A break above 1.4060, however, could encourage sterling bulls for a test of 1.41 but it all depends on the outcome of the payrolls.

EUR/USD: The euro dropped below 1.2235 and this pair seems to be heading towards 1.2190 now. A break below 1.2180 could spark bearish momentum towards 1.2150 and possibly even 1.2050 but that remains to be seen. The 1.23-level could act as a short-term resistance.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend!

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

GBP/USD: Upswing Toward 1.43 or Drop Below 1.40?

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar has proven to be stable on Tuesday amid trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Furthermore, the greenback was supported by speculation for an extended Federal Reserve hiking-cycle following hawkish commentary from Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Elsewhere, San Francisco President John Williams will be the successor to NY President William Dudley. Williams is more hawkish than Dudley.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro but ended the trading day unchanged against the British pound.

As expected in our technical analysis from yesterday, the euro found a current support at 1.2250 from where it corrected some losses. If the euro now drops below 1.2240 we expect further losses towards 1.22. For bullish momentum to gain steam we would need to see a break above 1.2360.

Euro traders will watch the Eurozone Consumer Price Index today at 9:00 UTC, a report which could have an impact on the single currency.

The pound sterling rose towards 1.41 after it refrained from a decline below the rising trendline (see our analysis from Tuesday, April 3). If there is a renewed break below 1.4030 the pound could be vulnerable to further losses towards 1.40 and 1.39. However, as long as the pound remains above 1.40 we favor a bullish stance in the GBP/USD.

From the U.S., we have the ADP report scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC followed by the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 14:00 UTC.

Daily Forex Signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Trade War Has Begun

Dear Traders,

Yesterday was the official start of a trade war with the Trump administration announcing a at least $50 billion tariff on Chinese imports. And that decision had a reciprocal effect. Subsequently, China announced plans for tariffs on $3 billion of imports from the U.S., including products from steel to pork.

Investors now fear an escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China while an escalation in trade wars could hurt global growth.

The Japanese yen served as a safe haven while the U.S. dollar’s fate is still uncertain amidst an uncertain geopolitical environment.

The British pound’s reaction to the Bank of England announcement was strong but short-lived. The BoE rate decision was a bit more hawkish than expected, increasing the odds for a next rate in May to 72 percent now. The pound soared to a high of 1.4220 but quickly deviated from its highs as market participants took profit at 1.42. We still see the pound trading within an uptrend channel which is why we expect further gains towards 1.4270. As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, the current support around 1.4070 proved intact from where some buyers have shown up. For the bias to shift from bullish to bearish it would require a sustained break below 1.40.

The euro bounced off the falling trendline and tested the 1.23/1.2280 support area. If the euro climbs back above 1.2370 we expect further gains towards 1.24. A break above 1.2415 would shift the bias in favor of the bulls.

Traders will watch U.S. Durable Goods Orders today at 12:30 UTC.

It has been a very profitable trading week and we therefore advise traders to secure their weekly profit now.

Enjoy the weekend.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Focus Turns To The Fed: Dot-Plot To Show 4 Rate Hikes This Year?

Dear Traders,

This trading week has been, so far, not only volatile but also very profitable for traders. Yesterday, we saw the U.S. dollar gaining back ground against the euro and British pound ahead of today’s highly anticipated FOMC decision. Thus, short traders were able to book a good profit.

The pound slipped below 1.40 after U.K. inflation data came in worse-than-expected but losses were limited due to hopes that tomorrow’s Bank of England statement will be hawkish.

The euro sold off after the German and Eurozone ZEW Surveys fell well below expectations.

Today, all eyes will be on the Fed decision due at 18:00 UTC followed by Jerome Powell’s news conference 30 minutes later. Market participants are curious whether the central bank will lift its projections for the pace of policy tightening this year. While a 25-basis-point rate is almost certain the focus will turn to updated economic projections (SEP – Summary of Economic Projections) and the Fed’s dot plot forecast. If the dot plot shows monetary policy makers favoring 4 rate hikes this year, the dollar will rise. Anything else could disappoint the market’s high expectations and could send the dollar tumbling.

While today’s Fed decision will be one of the most important decisions in years, it does not mean that it will be market-moving in terms of profitable trading opportunities. As usual, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenarios and will update traders (subscribers) about all current and pending trades on our live signal page.

We wish you profitable trades for today!

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Currency Pairs Remain Range-Bound Ahead Of Next Week’s Central Bank Meetings

Dear Traders,

The euro and pound were unable to hold onto their recent gains and weakened against the U.S. dollar Thursday despite political turmoil in the Trump administration. The euro tested the 1.23-threshold but was able to stabilize above that barrier – at least for the time being. Short traders were able to pocket a good profit yesterday as we entered short as soon as the euro dropped below 1.2350.

The pound sterling still rejects 1.40 and thus, remains range-bound between 1.40 and 1.39. As long as there is no sustained break above or below that range, there is nothing new to report.

This Friday we do not have great expectations as the focus turns to the central bank meetings next week so market movements could be flat ahead of the upcoming risk events.

Traders may keep an eye on the Eurozone Consumer Price Index at 10:00 UTC and the University of Michigan Sentiment at 14:00 UTC. However, none of these reports is expected to have a significant impact on the currencies.

We wish you a beautiful weekend!

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co