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Geopolitische Risiken und Ströme in sichere Häfen

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Wir befinden uns in einer Zeit wirtschaftlicher Unsicherheit und Instabilität, und angesichts der bevorstehenden US-Wahlen und anderer Unsicherheiten bei den Zinssätzen halten sich viele Anleger mit neuen Investitionen zurück und versuchen, ihr Portfolio für den Fall einer vorzeitigen Rezession zu schützen. Nach der weiteren Eskalation des Krieges im Nahen Osten in der vergangenen Woche erleben wir nun die Rückkehr der Risikoprämie und der Zuflüsse in sichere Häfen. Gold, US-Dollar, Schweizer Franken und Yen profitierten leicht von der Anziehungskraft sicherer Häfen. Wir werden die geopolitischen Risiken genau im Auge behalten, während die Wirtschaftsdaten wahrscheinlich in den Hintergrund treten werden.

Aus technischer Sicht gaben die wieder aufkeimenden geopolitischen Risiken und ein starker US-NFP-Bericht dem US-Dollar Auftrieb, so dass es sowohl beim EUR/USD als auch beim GBP/USD zu deutlichen Rückschlägen kam. Die Märkte haben eine Zinssenkung der Federal Reserve um 50 Basispunkte im November ausgepreist und sehen nun eine 97-prozentige Chance für eine Zinssenkung um nur 25 Basispunkte im nächsten Monat.

EUR/USD

Auf dem Wochenchart sehen wir eine starke Erholung des Greenbacks, die den Unterstützungsbereich um 1,0850 wieder in den Fokus rückt. Sollte die neue Woche unter 1,0970 schließen, erwarten wir ein weiteres Abwärtsmomentum mit einem Rückgang auf mindestens 1,0880. Oberhalb von 1,10 sind die Aussichten eher positiv für die Bullen.

GBP/USD

Der jüngste Aufwärtstrend ist nach wie vor intakt, auch wenn der Cable auf einen Test seiner Unterstützung bei 1,3130 zurückfiel. Unterhalb von 1,3040 könnte es zu einer weiteren Korrektur in Richtung der unteren Trendlinie bei etwa 1,2930 kommen.

 

Wenn auch Sie wissen möchten, wo wir unseren Stopp-Loss und Take-Profit setzen und ob wir an einem bestimmten Tag handeln oder nicht, sowie wie wir unsere Positionen managen, dann abonnieren Sie unseren Signalservice.

 

Wir wünschen gute Trades!

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

Copyright © 2024 MaiMarFX.

Geopolitical Risks And Safe Haven Flows

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We are in a period of economic uncertainty and instability and with the US elections coming up amid other uncertainties in interest rates, many investors refrain from participating in new investments and seek to defend their portfolio in the event of an untimely recession. We are now seeing the return of the risk premium and safe haven flows following last week’s wider escalation in the Middle East war. Gold, U.S. dollar, Swiss Franc and the Yen benefited slightly from the safe haven appeal. We will keep a close eye on geopolitical risks while economic data will probably take a backseat.

From a technical view, renewed geopolitical risk and a strong U.S. NFP report gave the U.S. dollar a boost and thus, we saw significant pullbacks in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Markets have priced out a 50bp Federal Reserve rate cut in November and now see a 97 percent chance of an only 25bp cut next month.

EUR/USD

Looking at the weekly chart we see the greenback’s strong rebound, bringing the 1.0850-support area back in focus. If the new week closes below 1.0970, we expect further bearish momentum with a dip towards at least 1.0880. Above 1.10, the outlook tends to be in favor of the bulls.

GBP/USD

The recent uptrend is still intact even if the cable fell back towards a test of its support around 1.3130. Below 1.3040, we may see a further correction towards the lower trendline at around 1.2930.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

U.S. PCE-Index In Focus

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The PCE index is scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT today.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 27/9/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1180

Short @ 1.1135

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3420

Short @ 1.3360

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 19310

Short @ 19180

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

EUR/USD und GBP/USD: Kann die Rallye anhalten?

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Die über den Erwartungen liegende Zinssenkung der Federal Reserve um 50 Basispunkte in der vergangenen Woche löste eine erneute Erholung des EUR/USD und des GBP/USD aus. Der Euro testete erneut den Bereich um 1,1190, während sich der Cable mit einem Anstieg auf einen Höchststand von 1,3340 als bester Performer der letzten Woche erwies.

In dieser Woche wird es voraussichtlich ruhiger zugehen, was die marktbewegenden Daten angeht, denn am Freitag steht nur die PCE-Inflation auf dem Programm.

Zwar ist der Optimismus über Zinssenkungen die treibende Kraft hinter der jüngsten Marktrallye, doch müssen wir zugeben, dass die Rezessionsängste noch nicht ausgestanden sind. Außerdem haben die Währungshüter die Inflation noch nicht für besiegt erklärt weshalb die Fed-Beamten nicht mit weiteren großen Zinssenkungen rechnen. Wir werden daher die PCE-Inflationsdaten im Auge behalten.

EUR/USD

Der Euro konnte zwar keinen neuen Höchststand erreichen, doch bildete das Paar ein symmetrisches Dreieck aus, was auf die Möglichkeit eines weiteren Anstiegs innerhalb des jüngsten Aufwärtstrends hindeuten könnte. Oberhalb von 1,1190 ist ein nachhaltiger Durchbruch über 1,1210 erforderlich, um den Weg bis 1,1250 und 1,13 frei zu machen. Auf der Unterseite könnte ein Durchbruch unter 1,1030 und weiter unter 1,10 ein beschleunigtes Abwärtsmomentum auslösen.

GBP/USD – Pfund-Aufschwung

Das Pfund Sterling erlebte eine sehr starke letzte Woche, nachdem sich die BoE nicht auf einen bestimmten Lockerungspfad festlegte. Allerdings wird auch von der BoE im November eine Zinssenkung um 25 Basispunkte erwartet.

Der Trend ist unser Freund, und so sehen wir ein nächstes höheres Ziel bei 1,3360. Eine kurzfristige Unterstützung wird jedoch bei 1,3240 gesehen.

 

Wenn auch Sie wissen möchten, wo wir unseren Stopp-Loss und Take-Profit setzen und ob wir an einem bestimmten Tag handeln oder nicht, sowie wie wir unsere Positionen managen, dann abonnieren Sie unseren Signalservice.

Wir wünschen gute Trades!

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

Copyright © 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

 

EUR/USD And GBP/USD: Rally To Continue?

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The Federal Reserve’s larger-than-expected 50bp rate cut from last week triggered fresh rallies in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The euro tested the area around 1.1190 again, whereas the cable has proved to be last week’s best performer last with a surge to a high of 1.3340.

This week is expected to be a quieter one in terms of market-moving data with only the PCE inflation on tab this Friday.

While optimism over interest rate cuts is the driver behind the newest market rally, we must admit that recession fears are not over. Furthermore, policy makers have not yet declared victory over inflation and Fed officials are not anticipating further big reductions.  We will therefore keep an eye on the PCE inflation data.

EUR/USD

While the euro was unable to surge to a fresh high, the pair formatted a symmetrical triangle, suggesting the possibility of a next leg-up within the recent uptrend. Above 1.1190 it will need a sustained break above 1.1210 in order to clear the way until 1.1250 and 1.13. On the downside, a break below 1.1030 and further 1.10 could trigger accelerated bearish momentum.

GBP/USD – Pound Boost

The cable had a very strong last week after the BoE stood pat while policy makers were not pre-committing to a particular easing path. However, a 25bp rate cut is also expected from the BoE in November.

The trend is our friend and thus we anticipate a next higher target at 1.3360. A short-term support is however seen at 1.3240.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Fed to Cut Rates by 25 or 50 Bps?

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The EUR/USD tested the area around 1.1150, while the GBP/USD corrected its gains after a test of its recent resistance at 1.3230.

All eyes turn to the Federal Reserve decision today at 18:00 GMT.

While a 25bp rate cut is a done deal, the sentiment has shifted towards a bigger 50bp move. Depending on the accompanying tone from FOMC policy makers, a more aggressive rate cut could negatively affect the greenback and thus, push its counterparts higher. The Fed’s press conference will also be of high interest, as it could offer clues about the rate cut path. Strong comments about the economy will influence the dollar’s movement.

If the Federal Reserve opts for a bigger 50bp rate cut, the EUR/USD could challenge the 1.12 hurdle in a next leg up.

If the Fed opts for a 25 bp cut, the dollar might strengthen temporarily, causing a potential correction in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The euro’s next support is seen at 1.10 and 1.0950, whereas the cable’s lower support area is seen at 1.3120.

Expect heightened volatility today.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 18/9/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1165

Short @ 1.1085

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3185

Short @ 1.3140

 

Settings for all trades today:   SL 25, TP 100

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Pivotal Week

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Welcome to a new and pivotal trading week.

Markets started this new week relatively unimpressed after another assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump at his Florida golf course. Trump was unharmed while the suspect is in custody.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years by at least 25 basis points. Investors are however focused on what will happen after the FOMC announcement

There is now growing anticipation for more aggressive rate cuts later in the year and early 2025, especially after a Fed official floated the idea of “front-loading” cuts. But with US data weakening, crude oil prices falling, and the Fed turning dovish, the EUR/USD currency pair forecast remains moderately bullish unless we see other major surprises.

The Bank of England is also due to decide on monetary policy this Thursday but it is expected to stand pat for now.

EUR/USD: The euro remains captured between 1.11 and 1.10 for now. A break above 1.1110 could prompt bulls for a test of 1.1150 but price action might remain sluggish until Wednesday evening.

GBP/USD: We expect the pair to remain trading between 1.32 and 1.30 in short-term time frames. Above 1.3210, bulls may push for a test of 1.33.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

NFP Trading Signals

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It’s Nonfarm Payrolls Day today and as usual, investors will keep an eye on the U.S. employment data as it provides a general sense of the market’s sentiment. A strong report may support a minimal 25 bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve, whereas weaker labour market figures could heighten the possibility of a 50 bp reduction at the FOMC September meeting.

In other words, expect some volatility at the release time at 12:30 GMT.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 6/9/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1135

Short @ 1.1080

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3190

Short @ 1.3140

 

Settings for all trades today:  SL 25 TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Daily Trading Signals

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Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 4/9/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1080

Short @ 1.1015

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3160

Short @ 1.3085

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 18560

Short @ 18490

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 20-30

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Expect No Fireworks At The ECB Decision

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A weakening U.S. dollar has helped both euro and pound sterling to move higher.

Also, BoE rate cut expectations have been pushed back to September as UK inflation remains sticky at 3.5 percent. The GBP/USD rose to a high of 1.3045 and as long as the pair can hold above the crucial 1.30-threshold, the next higher target at 1.3140 could be within reach.

Today, the European Central Bank will decide on its monetary policy but no rate cuts are expected from the ECB this month. Traders thus expect the euro to remain supported against the greenback and brace for higher targets at 1.0960 and 1.0980.

However, traders shouldn’t expect any fireworks today after the ECB has only delivered its first rate cut last month and with ECB President Christine Lagarde saying there will no pre-commitment to a particular rate path. Of course, we will watch out for clues about a next move but we don’t expect too much today.

 

During summer doldrums we may face quieter trading conditions. Therefore, we will not invest much, trade with smaller positions and don’t trade every day.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 18/7/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0965

Short @ 1.0885

 

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co