Quiet Week Before The Easter Holidays?
After markets had a few days to digest last week’s dovish FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve continued to signal three rate cuts in 2024, even though fresh forecasts pointed to slightly hotter inflation. The message behind last week’s decision is that the Fed seems willing to let inflation run hot for longer, to minimize the risk of a recession.
However, the U.S. dollar’s counterparts encountered their own problems and gave up their lofty gains while the greenback managed to recover previous losses. The pound fell sharply after the Bank of England softly opened the door for a summer rate cut.
GBP/USD
The pound crushed into reality and below 1.26 after it was flirting with the lofty 1.29-barrier. It will now be interesting whether daily candles close below 1.26 (blue EMA), since this would point to a fresh downtrend. Given that this week will be accompanied by low volatility, we expect that the pair will trade in tight ranges. A next resistance comes in at around 1.2650, followed by 1.2720. However, bearish candles suggest more downside momentum to come.
EUR/USD
The euro remains within its sideways trading range but recently tilts to the downside. Remaining below 1.0850 would turn the focus to the lower 1.07-target.
DAX – Is everything right with the high-flyer?
With a chart like this, we can only express our doubts that this steep uptrend will continue. What do you think?
This week will be quiet in terms of market-moving data. The only interesting piece of data will be the PCE price index, due for release on Friday. Friday, however, will be a public holiday, so liquidity is expected to be thin.
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