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Fed To Pave The Way For Renewed Dollar Strength?

Dear Traders,

We welcome you to a new trading week which promises to be an interesting one with the Federal Reserve meeting and plenty of economic news scheduled for release throughout the entire week. While the economic calendar includes plenty of important news, such as first-quarter GDP numbers from the U.S., U.K. and the Eurozone, the main focus will be on the FOMC statement and the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates twice this year. The Fed is not expected to change monetary policy this month but market participants are eager to learn whether policy makers changed their outlook for rate increases in 2016 or maintain their hawkish policy stance.

Accordingly, the U.S. dollar will be back in focus this week and should determine the direction in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Apart from the FOMC meeting, traders will be watching Gross Domestic Product reports and German Unemployment numbers, scheduled for release on Thursday and Friday. The euro dropped as low as 1.1220 on Friday, confirming our presumption of renewed bearish momentum although euro bears have been fooled by the final upswing towards 1.14 before a reversal occurred. The euro would now need to break below 1.1190 in order to revive fresh bearish momentum towards 1.1150 and 1.1080. We expect the 1.1150 and 1.1080/70-levels to lend a crucial support to the EUR/USD before the focus shifts to a break of 1.1050 and 1.10. On the upside, possible resistance levels are currently seen at 1.13, 1.1335 and 1.1360.

GBP/USD

The most important piece of U.K. data will be GDP numbers due for release on Wednesday. Taking a look at the daily chart we see sterling trading within an uptrend channel approaching important resistance levels. The next crucial resistance level is at 1.45, from where sterling will have the opportunity to start a decline. If the pair is able to break above 1.4515, next resistances are seen at 1.4560 and 1.46. As we generally maintain a bearish stance in this pair, we are looking for resistance levels which could cap on gains in the British pound. A current support-zone is seen at 1.43 – 1.4285.

Chart_GBP_USD_Daily_snapshot25.4.16

This week starts off with the German IFO Index, due at 8:00 UTC today, a report which could have a short-term effect on the euro. Furthermore U.S. New Home Sales are scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC.

We wish everyone many profitable trades and a nice week.

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Dollar Bulls Need More Signals To Reinvigorate The Long-Dollar Trade

Dear Traders,

After investors have been scared out of their long-dollar positions ahead of Friday’s U.S. job report, they must now reconsider the timing of interest-rate hikes this year. The latest non-farm payrolls report raised doubts about recent speculations the Federal Reserve could be inclined to forgo future rate increases in 2016. While payrolls increased by only 151K last month, the jobless rate fell to 4.9 percent, which was the lowest level since February 2008. In addition, wage growth showed a higher reading, which was reason enough for dollar bulls to send the greenback higher. Nonetheless, it was not easy for traders to handle the sharp fluctuations when job numbers were due for release. Consequently, those who have made a trading break on Friday have made the best choice.

What is important for the this week?

Apart from Fed-Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday and Eurozone GDP-reports and U.S. Retail Sales on Friday the economic calendar is light. Yellen appears before the House Financial Services Committee to testify on economy and monetary policy and market participants will look for an unambiguous confirmation of the future outlook, whether the Fed will grow less hawkish or maintain an optimistic stance, pointing to further tightening in 2016. The dollar’s performance could therefore hinge on Wednesday’s testimony.

The GBP/USD seesawed Friday but ended the week below 1.45. Our focus will be on the 1.4350-level, which may act as a support for the currency pair. A significant break below that level could send sterling back towards 1.4240 and 1.4150. However, remaining above 1.44, we might see the pound rallying towards 1.46 and 1.47, albeit we assume that the 1.47-mark could be a strong resistance. There are no major economic U.K. data reports until Wednesday when Industrial and Manufacturing Production is scheduled for release.

The EUR/USD is currently trending downwards. We expect the 1.1070-level to lend a short-term support for the pair. If this support proves to be correct, we may see a small rebound towards 1.1150 and 1.1180. This scenario would then format a head-shoulders pattern, which could be in play as soon as the euro breaks below 1.1070, reinforcing strong bearish momentum.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot8.2.16

We wish you a good start to the week and many profitable trades.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Euro and Sterling Rose Against The Greenback

Dear Traders,

The euro and British pound traded higher against the greenback Monday. The best performing currency pair was the cable, which experienced a short squeeze and broke through all recent resistance-levels. A next resistance is seen at 1.4470/75 and if sterling is able to break above that level, we may see a test of 1.45. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the U.K. referendum, which is possible as early as June, the risk is to the downside for GBP/USD. Current support levels are seen at 1.4350, 1.4310, 1.4240 and 1.4180.

The EUR/USD flirted with the 1.09-barrier  but as long as there is no sustained break above 1.0915/25, the euro may drop back towards 1.0840 and 1.0810. On the upper side, the 1.0955/60-level remains in focus and euro-bulls should wait for prices above that level.

Meanwhile, ECB President Draghi reiterated the ECB’s plan to review its stimulus program in March and thus confirmed its dovish tilt. The euro is therefore more vulnerable to losses going into the next monetary policy meeting in March.

The German Unemployment report is scheduled for release at 8:55 GMT which could have a short-term impact on the euro if numbers surprise to the upside.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on the U.K. Construction PMI, due for release at 9:30 GMT.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Fed May Shift Towards Slower Pace Of Interest-Rate Hikes

Dear Traders,

In the end the market reaction to the FOMC statement was muted and has left much do be desired for currency traders. While the statement was a communications challenge for the Federal Reserve it came in as balanced as possible. Particularly noteworthy is the shift into a wait-and-see mode, which signals a less-hawkish forward guidance. While an interest rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in March is less likely Fed policy makers have left the door open for a March. Officials said that rate increases will depend on how the U.S. economy performs and said that they were “closely monitoring global and financial developments”.

In a nutshell, the Fed may be inclined to move forward at a slower pace of interest-rate hikes but the main focus remains on labor market and inflation data.

The EUR/USD did not show much movement yesterday, trading firmly around the 1.09-mark. For the time being, we expect swings to be muted unless the euro breaks above 1.0960 or vice versa, breaks below 1.08 and 1.0770. Upwards movements could be capped at 1.0925 and 1.0955 while downward swings may be limited until 1.0870 and 1.0820 in the short-term.

The German Consumer Price Index is scheduled for release at 13:00 GMT, a report which could affect the price action in the EUR/USD.

The British pound continued to trade lower against the greenback. We generally favor a bearish stance in GBP/USD and our focus is on the 1.42-barrier. A renewed test of that support level may reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum towards 1.4170, 1.4150 and 1.4120. Current resistance levels are seen at 1.4285, 1.4308 and 1.4340.

U.K. GDP numbers are due for release at 9:30 GMT and if GDP is lower than expected, sterling could easily slide below 1.42.

Important U.S. data are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT with U.S. Durable Goods Orders, followed by Pending Home Sales at 15:00 GMT.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

GBP/USD: Further Weakness Ahead? Focus On A Break Of 1.42

Dear Traders,

Not much has changed since yesterday and trading was relatively quiet. The EUR/USD traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar despite a weaker Ifo report. Neither the fact that it was the lowest reading in almost one year, nor cautious comments from Mario Draghi, who is trying to convince investors that the ECB is willing to act if needed, could weaken the euro. On the contrary, the common currency rose above 1.0845 and tested the next resistance level at 1.0860. If the euro is able to break above 1.0865/75 we will shift our focus to the 1.09-level again. Ahead of the FOMC statement on Wednesday, we expect the EUR/USD to remain within its current range between 1.0940/80 and 1.0770/15.

Despite the low level of volatility our short-entry in the GBP/USD turned out to be somewhat unfortunate and any further bearish momentum was blocked by the recent support level at 1.4230. Sterling traders should now pay attention to a break of 1.42. If GBP falls significantly below that level, we could see the pair sliding towards lower levels at 1.4155, 1.4130 and even 1.41.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney will testify to lawmakers on financial stability today at 10:45 GMT. Renewed concerns about a potential Brexit and the U.K. outlook may increase the pressure on the British pound.

The most important piece of U.S. data on today’s calendar will be Consumer Confidence, due for release at 15:00 GMT, which may have a short-term impact on the USD.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will FOMC Statement Pose A Risk To Dollar Bulls?

Dear Traders,

The biggest story Friday was the sharp rise in the GBP/USD. After hitting a fresh five-year low at 1.4079 on Thursday, the currency pair rallied towards 1.4365 despite Friday’s weaker-than expected retail sales report. The rise can be attributed to the result of profit-taking after the recent linear decline in the British pound. The cable now faces the 1.4250/30 support-area once again but as long as the pair remains trading above that zone we expect some possible upward swings which may occur in the near-term (see technical analysis below).

The most important piece of U.K. economic data will be Gross Domestic Product, scheduled for release on Thursday and if data disappoints to the downside, sterling could be vulnerable to further losses again. On Tuesday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney appears in Parliament to speak on financial-stability risks and a major topic could be the U.K. referendum on its membership in the EU and a potential “Brexit“.

The EUR/USD trended slightly lower, moving around the 1.08 support level. For the time being, we anticipate the 1.0770-level to be the next support before a renewed downswing toward 1.0730/15. On the upper side, we see current resistance-levels at 1.0835 and 1.0860.

The most important piece of Eurozone data this week will be the German IFO report, due for release at 9:00 GMT today. If IFO numbers fall short of expectations, the euro could tumble toward lower targets. Furthermore, German Consumer Prices are scheduled for release on Thursday.

All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. While the central bank is not expected to alter its monetary policy and there will be no press conference, the statement could fail to add further strength to the U.S. dollar. Rather, the risk for the USD is to the downside, in case the FOMC statement turns out to be more dovish, suggesting a rate hike in March is less likely.

Further important U.S. economic reports are due for release with Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), Durable Goods Orders (Thursday) and U.S. Gross Domestic Product (Friday).

GBP/USD

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we see that there could be some upside room after a break of 1.4365. A next bullish target could be at 1.4420/45 with a possible extension until 1.4470. However a current support-zone is seen at 1.4250/30 and if the cable falls again below that level, we expect bearish momentum to accelerate towards 1.4170 and 1.4130.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot25.1.16

 

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Roller Coaster Ride In Both EUR/USD And GBP/USD

Dear Traders,

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD experienced a roller coaster ride yesterday and while short-traders initially achieved good profits, some of these gains were lost owing to the strong rebound. In the end, both major currency pairs ended the day more or less unchanged against the U.S. dollar.

The euro slid to a low of 1.0778 on dovish comments from ECB president Mario Draghi. While interest rates were kept unchanged, he readied the market for more stimulus at the next ECB meeting in March and traders got what they have been looking for: A strong hint that the ECB is willing to increase stimulus. Draghi said officials will review their programs in March and there are “no limits” on how far the central bank is willing to deploy additional measures within mandate. He signaled concerns about low commodity prices and their effects on inflation and said that policy makers “have to be vigilant about that”. Further clues on the inflation outlook will be published in the Quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters, scheduled for release today at 9:00 GMT.

Draghi is scheduled to speak today at 7:45 GMT in Davos.

While a dovish ECB was enough to sent the euro in the short-term lower, it is still not enough to change the overall sentiment immediately. But at least yesterday’s statement will put pressure on the EUR/USD and traders should generally favor the downtrend. Below the important support at 1.08 the euro marked a second support at 1.0775, which needs to be broken in order to revive further bearish momentum towards 1.0730 and 1.0665.

The British pound followed the roller coaster ride and rose from its fresh 1.4079-low to 1.4249. Current resistances could be intact at 1.4250 and 1.4285/1.43, while recent support-areas are seen at 1.4155, 1.4130 and 1.4080/65.

Important U.K. economic data is scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT with the U.K.Retail Sales report. Economists are looking for a weaker report and if they are right, sterling could continue its downtrend.

From the euro zone we have the German Manufacturing and Services PMI, due at 8:30 GMT, which could have a short-lived impact on the euro.

Furthermore, U.S. Manufacturing PMI scheduled for release at 14:45 GMT and Existing Home Sales due at 15:00 could only have a small impact on the dollar.

We wish you a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

British Pound Extends Losses

Dear Traders,

The pound sterling dropped like a stone, breaking easily through $1.4230 after Bank of England governor Mark Carney said that “now is not yet the time to raise interest rates”. He highlighted global economic risks weighing on inflation and said that inflation “will likely remain very low for longer”. His comments dashed investors’ hopes for an early rate hike and sent the pound sharply lower toward its next target at 1.41.

Ahead of Carney’s speech an unexpectedly uptick in core consumer price index has driven GBP to a weekly high at 1.4340, which now marks a faraway resistance for the currency pair. We will now turn our focus to the next lower barrier at 1.41. A sustained break below that level could push sterling towards 1.4050 and 1.40, important price levels where the cable may gain some ground. However, upward movements could currently be limited until 1.42 and 1.4235.

Today we will focus on the next important economic report from U.K. which will be labor market data, due at 9:30 GMT, here in particular Average Weekly Earnings. Wages are forecast to show a decline, which could put further pressure on the currency.

The EUR/USD marked a current support at 1.0859 from where it started a relief rally toward its resistance area at 1.0985. In case of a renewed test of this resistance it should be interesting whether the euro will be able to break above 1.10, pointing towards a higher target at 1.1035. However, the current upward momentum could be deceptive ahead the European Central Bank meeting tomorrow. ECB president Mario Draghi may deliver a more dovish than-expected message to talk down the euro. Euro traders should prefer to turn their focus to a downside break of 1.0830 and 1.08 rather than an upside break of 1.0985.

We have some interesting U.S. data scheduled for release today. U.S. Consumer Prices are due at 13:30 GMT along with the release of U.S. Building Permits. If CPI figures surprise to the upside, the greenback could trade higher against its major peers. 

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

GBP/USD: Bottom At 1.4235? GBP Awaits CPI And Carney’s Comments

Dear Traders,

The performance of the British pound was hampered by a short-lived upside correction, which was more limited than we had previously expected. While we anticipated the short pullback to last until at least 1.4335, the pound sterling reversed shy of 1.4325.  The currency pair is now facing its support at 1.4230 and if we see a break below that level, GBP could slide towards next lower targets at 1.42, 1.4150 and 1.4110. Short-term resistances are seen at 1.4310/25 and 1.4350.

Sterling traders will pay attention to the U.K. Consumer Price report, scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT today. While the Core CPI is forecast to hold steady, inflation data from December may show an uptick. Whatever the case, any changes in CPI could have a strong impact on the currency. Furthermore, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak on the economy at 12:00 GMT. If he sounds more dovish, GBP could extend its losses versus the U.S. dollar.

The EUR/USD traded sideways within a narrow trading range. With prices above 1.0910 the euro may head for another test of 1.0945 and further 1.0975. On the bottom side we see a current support-area ranging from 1.0870 until 1.0845. The currency pair will first need to break this area significantly in order to test next important price levels at 1.0834 and 1.0810.

The most important piece of economic data from the Eurozone will be the German ZEW Survey due at 10:00 GMT alongside the Eurozone Consumer Price Report. In case of any disappointments, the euro could be trending downwards.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co