Posts

Roller Coaster Ride In Both EUR/USD And GBP/USD

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD experienced a roller coaster ride yesterday and while short-traders initially achieved good profits, some of these gains were lost owing to the strong rebound. In the end, both major currency pairs ended the day more or less unchanged against the U.S. dollar.

The euro slid to a low of 1.0778 on dovish comments from ECB president Mario Draghi. While interest rates were kept unchanged, he readied the market for more stimulus at the next ECB meeting in March and traders got what they have been looking for: A strong hint that the ECB is willing to increase stimulus. Draghi said officials will review their programs in March and there are “no limits” on how far the central bank is willing to deploy additional measures within mandate. He signaled concerns about low commodity prices and their effects on inflation and said that policy makers “have to be vigilant about that”. Further clues on the inflation outlook will be published in the Quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters, scheduled for release today at 9:00 GMT.

Draghi is scheduled to speak today at 7:45 GMT in Davos.

While a dovish ECB was enough to sent the euro in the short-term lower, it is still not enough to change the overall sentiment immediately. But at least yesterday’s statement will put pressure on the EUR/USD and traders should generally favor the downtrend. Below the important support at 1.08 the euro marked a second support at 1.0775, which needs to be broken in order to revive further bearish momentum towards 1.0730 and 1.0665.

The British pound followed the roller coaster ride and rose from its fresh 1.4079-low to 1.4249. Current resistances could be intact at 1.4250 and 1.4285/1.43, while recent support-areas are seen at 1.4155, 1.4130 and 1.4080/65.

Important U.K. economic data is scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT with the U.K.Retail Sales report. Economists are looking for a weaker report and if they are right, sterling could continue its downtrend.

From the euro zone we have the German Manufacturing and Services PMI, due at 8:30 GMT, which could have a short-lived impact on the euro.

Furthermore, U.S. Manufacturing PMI scheduled for release at 14:45 GMT and Existing Home Sales due at 15:00 could only have a small impact on the dollar.

We wish you a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Whipsaw Performance In Both Currency Pairs

/in /by

Dear Traders,

While we initially anticipated further trendsetting movements in the GBP/USD on Thursday, traders have been disappointed by the cable’s zigzag moves ranging between 1.4445 and 1.4360. In the face of GBP’s recent depreciation, the currency might have taken a little breather yesterday, which has led to false breakouts and limited movements, making it an overall non-profitable trading day. Bank of England officials kept its monetary policy unchanged and said the outlook for growth and inflation has weakened further. Thus, investors continue to hold a very bearish bias over the medium-term.

The euro, however, started the day with some profitable bullish moves towards 1.0945. That short-term rise can be attributed to speculation that further European Central Bank stimulus may be limited. On the other hand, some ECB policy makers expressed a preference for an even larger rate cut, according to an account of the Dec. 3 policy meeting, published on Thursday. The ECB next meets on January 21 and investors will be looking for new insights into the ECB’s guidance.

The U.S. dollar slightly weakened on cautious comments from Federal Reserve President James Bullard, who sounded more cautious by saying the latest decline in oil prices may delay the return of inflation to the Fed’s target of 2 percent.

All in all, it was none of our favorite trading days as the market failed to provide much consistency in the currencies performances.

Today, traders will have another opportunity to watch out for some strong movements in the U.S. dollar. U.S. Retail Sales are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT and this report could trigger a strong reaction in the greenback.  Retail Sales are expected to show a decline in December and any surprises could affect the dollar’s performance. Last but not least, Michigan Confidence is due at 15:00 GMT.

Let’s see if we can pocket some profit on the last trading day of this week.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Euro In A Waiting Mode – Cable Found Support At 1.50

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The recent decline in the British pound came to a temporary halt after a short dip below the 1.50-level. As we noted in yesterday’s analysis, the 1.50-level will be important to watch this week and as long as this support remains intact, sterling bulls may push GBP for a test of 1.5130/50.

The EUR/USD appears to be in a waiting mode ahead of the ECB policy decision and there was only little consistency in the euro’s performance yesterday. The 1.06-mark acts as a current resistance for the currency pair. With a break above 1.0620, the focus will turn to higher targets at 1.0640 and 1.0660. Nevertheless, the euro is likely to favor a bearish stance going into Thursday’s big event.

What will be important today?

The German employment report is due for release at 8:55 GMT, but the impact on the euro could be limited as the market is focused on the ECB. Sterling traders should pay attention to the speech of BoE Governor Mark Carney, who is due to speak at 9:00 GMT. Despite a healthy growth of the U.K. economy, BoE officials have highlighted concerns about parts of the U.K. financial system. Carney’s comments could therefore have a significant impact on the GBP’s further direction.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release at 15:00 GMT. Any positive surprises are likely to reinforce dollar buying.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Markets Are Expected To Be Quiet

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The euro fell to the weakest level in seven months on speculations the European Central Bank could be more aggressive in stepping up additional measures to stimulate the economy. While the market expects the ECB to expand stimulus when it meets next week, the central bank may surprise the market with an even more aggressive move. Some analysts expect the ECB to cut the deposit rate by more than the market expects next Thursday. In any case, the EUR/USD is likely to remain under pressure. A next bearish target could be at 1.0555.

The British pound however, failed to show a sustained trend yesterday, trading sideways between 1.5136 and 1.5055. Next important resistances could be at 1.5155 and 1.5180, whereas sterling bears should keep an eye on a break of the 1.5050-level, targeting the 1.5030- and 1.50 level.

GBP/USD – 4 Hour Chart

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot26.11.15

U.S. financial markets are closed today for Thanksgiving, so the trading environment is expected to be very quiet. Nonetheless, we know from others years, that on Thanksgiving Thursday a clear trend has frequently been established. Moreover, the Friday after Thanksgiving tended to show even bigger moves, so it could be worthwhile for investors to remain engaged.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

How Low Can Euro And Sterling Go?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar advanced to new highs against the euro and British pound. The greenback resumed its uptrend in expectation the Fed will hike next month while other central banks are biased to ease. The euro weakened toward a fresh low of 1.06 after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi encouraged speculation the ECB will increase stimulus next week. Draghi said Friday the central bank will do what it must to raise inflation “as quickly as possible”. The euro could thus be vulnerable to further losses ahead of the ECB’s next policy decision on December 3.

Nonetheless, traders should be cautious with short positions as central bank actions are mostly priced in. The downtrend in the EUR/USD may come to a temporary halt at 1.0585, 1.0560 or 1.0520.

This week is a shortened holiday-trading week as U.S. markets will remain closed for Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday. Important economic reports are scheduled for release on Tuesday and Wednesday with U.S. Gross Domestic Product, Personal Consumption, Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Orders.

Important eurozone reports are due for release today with the Eurozone’s PMI reports and Tuesday with the German IFO Business Climate.

Sterling traders should watch the U.K. GDP figures, scheduled for release on Friday. While GBP may find a short-term support at 1.5150, key support levels could only be at 1.51 and 1.5030. Resistances are seen at 1.52 and 1.5240.

This week starts off with important data releases such as German Services and Manufacturing PMI reports at 8:30 GMT, Eurozone’s PMI reports at 9:00 GMT and U.S. Existing Home Sales at 15:00 GMT.

We wish you a good start to the new week!

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Wait-And-See Mode

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The market is still in a wait-and-see mode and larger movements are lacking. While the euro rose on the back of improvements in the European Central Bank’s lending report, the cable failed again to overcome its 1.55-hurdle.

The euro climbed to a high of 1.1387 after an ECB report showed that there is an improvement in the region’s lending conditions, diminishing prospects for additional monetary stimulus. Market participants fear that Draghi could probably sound less dovish at the ECB press conference tomorrow, since the report gives policymakers less cause for more QE.

Moreover, there were no new insights  from the Federal Reserve. Fed chair Yellen did not comment on the outlook for monetary policy when she made a statement yesterday.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today, so we shall have to wait until tomorrow when there are catalysts for more volatility. The only second-tier data is coming from the U.K. with public finances due for release at 8:30 GMT. Furthermore, BoE Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak today on the U.K.’s membership in the European Union at 17:00 GMT.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Dollar Strength Ahead of NFP-Report

/in /by

Dear Traders,

We welcome you to the trading month of October.

The euro declined against the greenback after consumer prices in the Eurozone turned negative for the first time in six months. The drop in the region’s inflation rate fuel arguments that the European Central Bank could step-up monetary stimulus.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar received support from a stronger than anticipated ADP employment report. The improving outlook for the labor market is among the Federal Reserves’s reasons to raise interest rates.

The pound sterling took a brief look above 1.5210 but was not able to maintain that level and headed for a test of 1.5110. As anticipated in yesterday’s analysis, the level around 1.5110 – 1.5090 may lend a support for the currency pair. We will wait and see.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on the U.K. PMI Manufacturing report, scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT. If data surprises to the upside, GBP could gain ground.

Furthermore, we will watch the release of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing index, due at 14:00 GMT.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Yellen sends clear signal

/in /by

Dear Traders,

While the British Pound tortured traders with fake-outs and choppy moves, the euro was heading for a test of the 1.13-area. The short recovery in the EUR/USD was still driven by Mario Draghi’s comments, who said on Wednesday that ECB policy makers will wait before discussing on a QE extension. After failing at $ 1.13, dollar bulls took control and drove the pair back below $ 1.12.

The U.S. dollar received support from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen saying that the Fed is on track to raise rates this year. During her speech in Amherst, Massachusetts, she sent a clear signal, that Fed policy makers believe that a rate hike is appropriate this year, followed by a gradual pace of tightening thereafter.

What is important for today?

Revisions to second-quarter U.S. GDP (12:30 GMT), the U.S. PMI reports (13:45 GMT) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index (14:00 GMT) are the only second-tier data scheduled for release today.

If GDP figures meet the expectations, the impact on the dollar could be limited.

Given the hawkish outlook for the U.S. dollar in the near-term, we are generally looking for further gains in the USD.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Dollar due for a correction?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Euro traders needed to be persistent and enter our long-entry several times, in order to gain the final profit. Before Draghi’s testimony in Brussels yesterday, euro bears tried to put pressure on the currency pair but finally failed when Draghi sounded slightly more optimistic. While he repeated the view that the European Central Bank is willing to bolster its bond-buying program if more stimulus is needed, he said that it is too early to judge whether expanding purchases would be appropriate. The ECB president said that more time is needed to determine whether risks to the economic outlook warrant a step-up in the ECB’s stimulus.

The euro reacted positively on his comments and tested the 1.12-level. Whether we will see more upward momentum, remains to be seen. With a break above 1.1220 we see chances that the euro could climb to 1.13.

The British Pound knows currently only one direction: Downwards. The support at 1.5220 proved to be stable for the time being. Bear in mind, that below 1.5220 there is no support until 1.5165. Above 1.5265 we may see a correction until 1.53 and 1.5340.

Today, the most important piece of economic data is coming from the USA with Durable Goods Orders, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT. Furthermore, New Home Sales at 14:00 GMT and the speech of Fed-chair Janet Yellen at 21:00 GMT could have an impact on the U.S. dollar.

Interesting data from the eurozone and the U.K.:

8:00 EUR German IFO Index

8:30 UK Loans for House purchase

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Draghi delivered – All eyes on U.S. Payrolls now

/in /by

Dear Traders,

As expected, ECB president Mario Draghi talked down the euro by emphasizing that asset purchases can be adjusted in terms of size and duration if needed. He signaled that European Central Bank officials might expand stimulus if economy weakens further and inflation does not return to the ECB’s goal of 2 percent. The central bank cut its outlook for inflation and growth for each year through 2017. Draghi indicated that inflation rates may drop below zero before accelerating in 2016 and 2017. Until then, “there aren’t special limits to the possibilities that the ECB has in gearing up monetary policy,” he said.

In other words, traders got what they were looking for: A dovish Draghi, who sends the euro on a downhill ride.

Today, the market’s attention is focused on the August Non-Farm Payrolls report. Market participants are looking for a confirmation whether the U.S. economy is strong enough for a September liftoff amid recent turmoil in global markets. The odds for a Federal Reserve rate-hike at the September meeting are currently at 30 percent.

A weaker U.S. job report, however, may disappoint dollar bulls and lead to a short squeeze in the euro and GBP.

Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings are scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT.

We wish you successful trades and a beautiful weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co