ECB – MaiMarFX

After U.S. Dollar Strength Relief For The Euro And Pound?

September 11, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The last week was characterized by a strengthening U.S. dollar due to higher Treasury yields, pushing both euro and British pound lower in turn.

Looking at the technical picture, both currency pairs formatted secondary downtrend channels which now could be a reason providing some relief for the euro and sterling.

EUR/USD

The euro touched 1.0686 which corresponds with the lower descending trendline of a short-term downside channel. Above 1.0760 chances are in favor of bulls with a higher target at around 1.0840. On the downside we expect that the 1.0650-support will provide some hold.

Like the euro, we almost see the same picture in the GBP/USD. After a recent low at 1.2445, bears could take a breather, allowing bulls to go for 1.2550 and 1.2630. If, however, the pound falls below 1.2440, the next crucial support lies at 1.24.

What is important for this week?

On Wednesday the focus turns to the U.S. inflation report. A mixed report is expected with core inflation seen weakening while the headline rate is estimated to rise from 3.2 percent to 3.6 percent.

On Thursday all eyes turn to the European Central bank rate decision. Bulls and bears are divided on this month’s decision while pricing is skewed towards a rate pause. Economic conditions deteriorate so this month might be the last opportunity for the ECB to raise rates.

We will know more on Thursday.

We wish everyone a good and successful week ahead.

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Traders Brace For Higher Volatility This Week

July 24, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

After several days of muted trading conditions, volatility is likely to increase this week, with major central bank decision on tab.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25bp on Wednesday. Traders’ focus will be on the forward guidance. If the Fed signals a further hawkish bias, the U.S. dollar will receive a boost.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank is also expected to deliver a quarter-point hike but unlike the U.S. dollar, the euro could be at risk of a sharp drop. Given the deterioration of growth in the eurozone, ECB policy makers may sound less committed about further tightening.

Last but not least, traders will assess the June PCE data on Friday. A higher reading would argue in favor of additional Fed tightening, and thus, benefit the greenback.

Summer doldrums: We advise traders not invest too much or doing a trading break since volatility typically remains at very muted levels during the summer months of July and August. When volatility is low, there is more to lose than to gain.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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Eventful Week

May 1, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Welcome to a new trading week which is heavy loaded with event risk.

Interest rate decisions will be in focus, starting with the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25bp to 5.25 percent, a level not seen since 2007. Considering that this decision is already priced in, the market’s attention will fall primarily on guidance for the rest of this year. After this month’s rate hike market participants expect the central bank to stand pat for three meetings and at the start of Q4, the Fed is expected to start cutting rates. However, since inflation is still robust, expectations for a rate cut are quite unrealistic. The Fed may try to play down such chances later this year. A surprisingly more hawkish decision on Wednesday could thus benefit the greenback.

On Thursday the European Central Bank is also expected to hike interest rates by 25bp.

Last but not least, on Friday we will have the U.S. nonfarm payrolls scheduled for release. NFP results could disappoint, missing estimates of a gain of 178,000 jobs. Soft numbers will be bearish for the U.S. dollar by triggering a dovish repricing of the Fed’s policy outlook.

Technically, the EUR/USD approaches overbought territory, favoring euro bears.

The British pound ended last week on a positive note with the cable back above 1.25. The pair could, however, come under pressure this week when the Fed and ECB announce their latest monetary policy decisions.

The DAX is hovering around the 16000-barrier and bulls hope for a breakout. However, while a bullish breakout might be imminent, event risk is looming with Thursday’s ECB decision. So, bulls, watch out.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Monthly results 2023:

April 2023 (5 days trading only): +38 pips

March 2023: +408 pips

February 2023: +475 pips

January 2023: +123 pips

We wish you good trades!

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Policymakers Find Themselves In A Dilemma

March 16, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Yesterday we saw how the market reacts when panic sets in. Panic about a new banking crisis, panic about deposits at Europe’s largest banks. After the collapse of Silicon Valley and Signature Bank in the USA, Credit Suisse is also in a fragile position. Investors fear a domino effect on other banks and fled into reserve currencies such as the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, even the greenback will not be safe in the event of a system crash.
Policymakers are in a dilemma. Inflation is not abating because there has been too much fiat money in circulation in recent years, provided by governments to support struggling economies. This money is not tied to the price of a commodity, so there is too much money on too few goods. Thus, years of ultra-loose monetary policy are inevitably the cause of inflation. Monetary authorities are now trying to curb the rate of inflation with restrictive measures such as interest rate hikes, but in the process, they are adding fuel to the fire. Higher interest rates mean that companies are having difficulty borrowing money from banks or servicing loans. This in turn forces companies to cut jobs because they are no longer solvent. And there we have stagflation, a stagnation of the economy with simultaneous demonetization. In the worst-case scenario, this will lead to a recession and a liquidity crisis for the banks and thus, as with the SVB, to a collapse.

In short, the only solution would be a return to an accommodative monetary policy, the price of which would be inflation that no one would be able to contain. In the worst case, which no one wants to talk about, the Western financial system could come to an end.

It remains to be seen whether policymakers will pull another wild card for their battered system.
At 13:15 p.m. today, we will learn from the European Central Bank by how many basis points the key interest rate will be raised again. Expectations tended to a hike of 50 basis points, but after all the turmoil of recent days traders are now betting on a smaller 25bp increase. A smaller rate hike would be neutral to bearish for the euro.
EUR/USD: We will pay attention to price breakouts either above 1.0810 or below 1.0480.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Price Action Leaves Much To Be Desired

December 15, 2022/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

This was definitely not the volatility what would be expected from the last large risk event of the year. The price action in the U.S. dollar was noticeably more constrained and there was no traction following the event.

Overall, yesterday’s outcome was in-line with expectations, even though Fed chair Jerome Powell warned the Fed is not close to ending its anti-inflation campaign of rate hikes while saying “we still have some ways o go”. In terms of terminal rates, policymakers projected rates would end next year at 5.1 percent before being cut to 4.1 percent in 2024 (see dot plot). Even though these are higher levels than previously indicated, the market didn’t see reason for a repricing.

The focus now shifts to the Bank of England and European Central bank decisions.

Both central banks are expected to announce a 50bp rate hike today. The BoE is expected to have further to run before hitting its own terminal in 2023 compared to its US counterpart while as for the ECB, there seems more potential for further tightening into 2023. with recession risks remarkably high for Europe and the rest of the world combatting inflation more aggressively, the Eurozone’s policy authority may find it reasonable to tapering its efforts with a lower terminal rate.

EUR/USD: The euro finds itself within the resistance zone between 1.06 and 1.08. The technical outlook has not noticeably changed which is why we still focus on price breakouts either above 1.08 or below 1.0350.

GBP/USD: The cable’s recent upward channel is still intact, showing a price range between 1.25 and 1.2150.

Given the December liquidity drain around the holiday, we do not expect to see larger movements after traction was all but absent even yesterday.

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Surprise Means Profits

December 17, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Surprise, surprise. The Bank of England raised interest rates by 15 basis points for the first time since the beginning of the crisis. The hike came as a surprise for many market participants and has thus sent the pound surging against other peers. As traders, we were able to catch the big fish in the GBP/USD with our long entry at 1.3270 hitting precisely its profit target at 1.3370 before price reversed.

The European Central Bank will wind down its emergency stimulus as planned in March. As for rate hikes, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that a rate increase in the euro zone isn’t going to happen any time soon. The EUR/USD hit a two-week high at 1.1360 but remained below crucial resistance levels. We profited with our long entry at 1.1310.

We will save our weekly profits and wish everyone a good weekend.

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No Liquidity – No Profits

July 23, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

No liquidity – no follow through – no profits. That is how one could describe the summer markets.

It was not a good day for traders in the EUR/USD as the pair traded choppily between 1.1830 and 1.1750 without any signs of a new trend or a revival of bearish momentum. While it was always a struggle to generate fresh trends in the summer markets when market conditions are historically restricted, these extreme thin liquidity conditions are a torment for day traders and breakout traders. While we have set some entries in the EUR/USD in the hope of some market moves, all of yesterday’s efforts did not pay off.

The European Central Bank marked a shift toward more dovishness and said it won’t derail the current economic recovery by withdrawing stimulus too early. The new guidance means that even if inflation is at the higher 2 percent target for as much as three years, the ECB won’t be forced to respond with tighter monetary policy. A rate hike is thus years away. While this is considered a very dovish scenario for the euro, the single currency did not respond to the news as one would expect.

The main drivers in the market are not monetary policy decisions right now but economic health, risk trends and the rise in coronavirus cases. Traders should keep an eye on that development.

Summer is in the markets and given a lower-liquidity backdrop across many markets during the summer months the potential for range-bound conditions is high. We therefore recommend traders staying on the sidelines during these low-liquidity periods, taking a break from the markets and adjusting risk exposure. The next major risk event will be later in the summer with the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium August 26-28.

We will take our annual summer trading break from August 2 to August 20 but we adjusted risk exposure even in the month of July.

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Euro Gains Despite Dovish ECB

July 9, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

While the GBP/USD ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged, leaving us without any sustained profit, the EUR/USD climbed towards 1.1870 and provided some profit for euro bulls.

The European Central Bank’s new strategy of allowing inflation to overshoot the ECB’s 2 percent target for a while points to a more expansionary bias for monetary policy. The new formulation of “2 percent inflation target is not a ceiling” gives the central bank room to run accommodative monetary policy for longer. While the new symmetric inflation target can be perceived as a dovish disposition, the euro gained after the announcement.

Elsewhere, the DAX experienced a sharp drop towards 15300. We saw the index breaking below the ascending trendline at 15450, as well as below the recent sideways trading range.

The next support is seen at 15280 and if the DAX is unable to overcome the 15500-Level, we may see a drop below that support with a next lower target at 15100.

Beautiful weekend everyone.

Summer is in the markets and given a lower-liquidity backdrop across many markets during the summer months the potential for range-bound conditions is high. We therefore recommend traders staying on the sidelines during these low-liquidity periods, taking a break from the markets and adjusting risk exposure. The next major risk event will be later in the summer with the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium August 26-28.

We will take our annual summer trading break from August 2 to August 20 but will adjust risk exposure even in the month of July.

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We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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No Major Movements Following The ECB Statement

March 12, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

And in the end, there was nothing to gain for traders on Thursday amid relatively lower readings of volatility in the market. While we had hoped for larger market movements, the ECB statement failed to trigger a major market response, dashing traders’ hopes for larger profits.

The statement was slightly more dovish than expected with the ECB coming up with a pledge to step up the pace of their PEPP bond purchases over the next quarter to keep rising yields from derailing the region’s economic recovery. As for inflation, President Christine Lagarde added that while inflation could hit 2 percent by the end of the year, the ECB will look through this.

The DAX briefly jumped to the upper bound of its recent consolidation range between 14600 and 14500 but no crucial price breakout followed.

The EUR/USD broke above 1.1960 but came under pressure following the ECB’s decision to step up the pace of its PEPP purchases. At the end of the day however, euro bulls cheered the slight upgrade in the near-term growth expectations with ECB officials agreeing that risks to the outlook have become more balanced. Bullish momentum was however not enough to push the pair above 1.1990 in the aftermath of the ECB decision day.

However, today is a new trading with new opportunities and next week we will have the Federal Reserve meeting with an update of its economic projections. So, we might get some interesting trading chances in the coming days.

We wish everyone good trades and a peaceful weekend!

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Daily Forex Signals

January 22, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Dear traders,

The euro did not surprise traders and rallied after the European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates and stimulus efforts unchanged. However, the 1.2170-mark proved to be challenging – as expected – and the euro bounced off that short-term resistance level.

As we wrote in yesterday’s post, chances are still in favor of the bulls but be careful – gains could be limited.

While maintaining the ECB’s stimulus after the December boost is good news, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that the euro-area economy is headed for a double-dip recession.

The resilient euro doesn’t seem to confirm these warnings.

Have a beautiful and healthy weekend everyone!

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.2180

Short @ 1.2135

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3715

Short @ 1.3665

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 13920

Short @ 13840

Results 2020:

December 2020: +318 pips

November 2020: +75 pips

October 2020: +432 pips

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We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Posts

After U.S. Dollar Strength Relief For The Euro And Pound?

Traders Brace For Higher Volatility This Week

Eventful Week

Policymakers Find Themselves In A Dilemma

Price Action Leaves Much To Be Desired

Surprise Means Profits

No Liquidity – No Profits

Euro Gains Despite Dovish ECB

No Major Movements Following The ECB Statement

Daily Forex Signals

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