No Liquidity – No Profits

No liquidity – no follow through – no profits. That is how one could describe the summer markets.

It was not a good day for traders in the EUR/USD as the pair traded choppily between 1.1830 and 1.1750 without any signs of a new trend or a revival of bearish momentum. While it was always a struggle to generate fresh trends in the summer markets when market conditions are historically restricted, these extreme thin liquidity conditions are a torment for day traders and breakout traders. While we have set some entries in the EUR/USD in the hope of some market moves, all of yesterday’s efforts did not pay off.

The European Central Bank marked a shift toward more dovishness and said it won’t derail the current economic recovery by withdrawing stimulus too early. The new guidance means that even if inflation is at the higher 2 percent target for as much as three years, the ECB won’t be forced to respond with tighter monetary policy. A rate hike is thus years away. While this is considered a very dovish scenario for the euro, the single currency did not respond to the news as one would expect.

The main drivers in the market are not monetary policy decisions right now but economic health, risk trends and the rise in coronavirus cases. Traders should keep an eye on that development.

Summer is in the markets and given a lower-liquidity backdrop across many markets during the summer months the potential for range-bound conditions is high. We therefore recommend traders staying on the sidelines during these low-liquidity periods, taking a break from the markets and adjusting risk exposure. The next major risk event will be later in the summer with the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium August 26-28.

We will take our annual summer trading break from August 2 to August 20 but we adjusted risk exposure even in the month of July.

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