Posts

U.S. Inflation data In Focus

Dear traders,

Monday’s trading was quiet with the U.S. dollar slightly appreciating versus its peers but without any profitable trading chances. Volatility was also muted due to a public holiday in the U.S. Monday, so let’s see what Tuesday brings.

We will keep an eye on the U.S. inflation rate release today at 12:30 UTC.

Investors weigh a potential setback on progress toward a coronavirus vaccine after a report that Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine study has been paused due to an unexplained illness in a participant. Any delay in the Covid-19 vaccine progress is generally considered dollar positive.

The uncertainty around the U.S. election and uncertainty about the timing and effectiveness of a vaccine will be the main market movers.

EUR/USD: Resistance is currently seen at 1.18 whereas the pair may find a short-term support at 1.1770.

GBP/USD: Cable has a strong support-zone between 1.30-1.2950. For accelerated bullish momentum we will need to see the pair trading above 1.3070 with a higher target at 1.3115.

DAX: If the index falls back below 13050, we may see a dip towards 13000. Remaining above 13100 higher targets could be at 13220.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

 

Watch Out For Higher Volatility Today

Dear Traders,

As expected, there wasn’t much volatility in the Forex market Wednesday with the euro and pound remaining within narrow price ranges. The GBP/USD was able to stabilize above 1.32 following an upbeat U.K. Services PMI report but the pair rejected the 1.3250-hurdle, at least for now. Generally speaking, the medium-term outlook for the pound is still bullish as market participants prepare for a potential rate hike in August. Odds for an August rate hike are currently at 53 percent.

BoE Governor Carney speaks in Newcastle today at 10:00 UTC and any comments on monetary policy could get the pound moving.

The euro appears to lose some of its downside momentum while we see a higher likelihood of an imminent break above 1.1690 and possibly even 1.1720 in the short-term. The euro’s slight upward bias was also backed by reports that some ECB members are seeing a rate hike in late 2019 as ‘too late’.

From the U.S. we have the ADP report, scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC, followed by the ISM Non-Manufacturing index at 14:00 UTC.

Last but not least, we will pay attention to the FOMC meeting minutes due at 18:00 UTC, which are expected to have a positive tone. If the minutes signal further steepening in the appropriate policy path, the dollar could receive some fresh boost.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Pound Marks Support At $1.34- But For How Long?

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar initially rose against the euro and British pound Monday morning but then ended the trading day virtually unchanged. Given these limited bearish movements, there wasn’t much to gain for short traders.

The cable has pushed down to a low of 1.3390 but the pair was able to stabilize above 1.34. Whether the 1.34-barrier will hold, remains to be seen but as long as GBP/USD remains below 1.35 we generally maintain a bearish stance in this pair. A significant break above 1.35 would shift the focus back to a previous sideways trading range between 1.36-1.35.

BoE Governor Carney will testify before parliament this morning at 8:15 UTC. Any new comments on inflation or monetary policy changes could get the pound moving.

The euro bounced off the 1.1715-level and corrected previous losses towards 1.18. The downtrend is still intact and as long as EUR/USD remains below 1.1850 we anticipate lower supports to come in at 1.1680 and 1.16.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

GBP/USD: Preparing For Potential Short Squeeze Scenario

Dear Traders,

After the absence of a major driver or catalyst in the markets, today is loaded with market-worthy data and thus, traders are bracing for higher volatility in most major currency pairs. Top event risk will be the Bank of England rate decision with the BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report. While the BoE is unlikely to raise interest rates at this meeting, it is the inflation report and the press conference with BoE Governor Carney that garner most attention.

The Bank of England will announce its rate decision alongside the release of the central bank’s inflation report at 11:00 UTC. The press conference will follow 30 minutes later.

Following the complete U-turn in rate hike expectations out of the BoE, the central bank has little choice but to signal a rate hike in August to maintain the bank’s credibility. The risk is therefore tilted to the upside with a potential short squeeze scenario in the GBP/USD. If the BoE, however, disappoint in terms of rate hike speculation deviating from their hawkish bias, the pound will further fall.

Another, no less important, report will be the April Consumer Inflation Report (CPI) from the U.S., which is due shortly after the BoE’s decision at 12:30 UTC. The Federal Reserve debate over a fourth rate hike in 2018 is still ongoing, which is why inflation figures could affect current rate hike speculation. Thus, a surprise in CPI data could have a major impact on the dollar, paving the way for some profit-taking or maybe an extension of the dollar rally.

Let’s take a look at the technical picture:

GBP/USD

The cable traded consolidated between roughly 1.36 and 1.35. The short-term bias is slightly bullish, with the focus now being on an uptrend channel between 1.3615 and 1.3515.  A break above 1.3810 could open the door for accelerated bullish momentum towards 1.40. On the bottom side, the 1.35-support remains a crucial price barrier. If the pound drops below 1.3480 we may see a drift towards 1.3330.

EUR/USD: The euro still trades around the falling trendline of its recent downtrend channel. As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, the 1.19-barrier could prove an important hurdle for euro bulls now. A break above 1.1910 may encourage bulls for a test of 1.1950. Today’s price action will, however, hinge on the appetite for USD, which is why we focus on U.S. CPI data.

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

 

Euro Drops Below $1.18

Dear Traders,

The euro weakened against the U.S. dollar in the aftermath of the German election results while the important support area around 1.1830-1.18 remained unbroken until this morning. As mentioned in our yesterday’s analysis, for the bullish bias to diminish the euro must break below 1.1830/20, the neckline of a head-shoulders pattern that was formatted since late August. Below 1.1820 we will focus on a lower target at 1.1775, from where potential pullbacks may occur. A current resistance is however seen at 1.1990.

Today’s focus shifts to comments from central bank policy makers with most attention being paid to Fed Chair Yellen who is scheduled to speak on inflation, uncertainty and monetary policy at 16:45 UTC.

Elsewhere, the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea continues to pose a threat to the markets. While the market shrugs off escalating tensions between America and North Korea, the recent escalation in rhetoric raises risk of tactical missteps.

The British pound extended its recent slide against the greenback and fell to a low near 1.3430. The latest weakness phase of the pound can still be considered as consolidation within the overall uptrend but if GBP/USD falls below 1.3380 we anticipate further losses towards 1.3330 and possibly even 1.32. On the topside, we will wait for a break above 1.36 in order to focus on higher targets at 1.37.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Challenging Trading While EUR/USD And GBP/USD Consolidate

Dear Traders,

Amidst Tuesday’s consolidation phase with both EUR/USD and GBP/USD fluctuating sideways within tight trading ranges, we have suffered some losses with our daily signal entries. Any attempt to buy euros or pounds at lower price levels has failed. We hope for better trading opportunities within the next 48 hours and will keep an eye on the technical barriers.

EUR/USD: If the pair is able to overcome its short-term hurdle at 1.1835/40, we may see a run for 1.1880. On the downside, we will wait for a significant break below 1.1790 but bearish momentum may be limited to 1.1770/60.

GBP/USD: The cable was confined to a narrow trading range between 1.3245 and 1.3195. Sterling bears should keep an eye on price drops below 1.3190 and 1.3150 whereas on the other side, a renewed upside break above 1.3225 may send the pound soaring towards 1.3265.

Interesting data points for today:

8:30 UK Construction PMI

12:15 USA ADP Employment Change

(Time zone UTC)

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will Payrolls Hurt Or Help The U.S. Dollar?

Dear Traders,

It’s payrolls day and the euro already started to show some bullish price action ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. jobs report. In our analysis of Thursday we highlighted the chance of a bullish continuation in the EUR/USD and this is precisely what has happened yesterday. The euro was Thursday’s best performer and rose toward 1.1425 on speculation the European Central bank is slowly starting to prepare the market for stimulus tapering.

All eyes now turn to the NFP report which is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. While the ADP report fell short of expectations, there is a risk that also NFP data miss and this would be poison for the U.S. dollar. The jobs report is expected to show 178K workers in June while wage growth is expected to have strengthened. If the headlines figures exceed expectations we could see the greenback strengthening but we bear in mind that any disappointment will have a greater impact on the market.

As usual, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenario but recommend not investing too much – at least ahead of the payrolls report. If you want to know how to trade the payrolls report and how to adjust your money management, sign up for our signal service here.

We wish you profitable trades and a relaxing weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Can The Euro Hold Onto Its High Price Level?

Dear Traders,

The euro broke above Monday’s spike high at 1.0923 but gains were capped at 1.0950, at least for the time being. The question now is whether there is still room for further gains. Looking at the 4-hour and daily chart we see that the EUR/USD is in overbought territory, a situation that increases the likelihood of upcoming corrections. We see a next hurdle at around 1.0970 followed by a stronger resistance at 1.10. As long as the euro remains firmly below 1.10 we prepare for corrective movements towards 1.09, 1.0840 and possibly even 1.0750.

The British pound rose towards the upper bound of its recent sideways trading range but still refrained from an upside break above 1.2850. As noted in previous analysis, sterling bulls better wait for a significant break above 1.2860 in order to buy pounds towards 1.30. A break below 1.2730 however, could send the pound tumbling towards 1.2650.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today, so the price action could hinge on U.S. President Trump’s tax-reform speech. Trump is expected to unveil a tax plan that includes a cut of the corporate rate to 15 percent from 35 percent. If he delivers we could see some renewed strength in the U.S. dollar.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

All Quiet In The Market

Dear Traders,

It has been a quiet start on Monday with the euro being stuck to a 40-pips range and the cable not showing much effort to break below its recent uptrend channel. The British pound found some halt around the lower barrier of its latest upward trend-channel at 1.2465 but it was unable to hold onto that high level and fell towards 1.24 this morning. If the pound breaks also below 1.2390, we expect further losses towards 1.2330 and 1.23. As noted in yesterday’s analysis, the cable will need to break the 1.26-level significantly in order to invigorate fresh bullish momentum.

Sterling traders will watch the U.K. Construction PMI, scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC. This report could have a short-lived impact on the pound.

The euro remained stuck between 1.0680 and 1.0640. We may see some accelerated momentum today but euro traders are unlikely to get any new insights into the ECB’s thinking from ECB president Mario Draghi who is scheduled to speak at 13:30 UTC in Frankfurt. If he does not refer to monetary policy, his speech will be a nonevent for traders. From a technical perspective, we expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.06 and 1.07 in short-term time frames.

From the U.S. we have Durable Goods Orders due for release at 14:00 UTC but this report is only of secondary importance.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Weakens On Unchanged Fed Forecasts

Dear Traders,

The market’s response to the FOMC announcement was as expected. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark interest rate to a range of 0.75-1.00 percent and continued to project two more hikes in 2017. In a nutshell, since the Fed’s rate hike path remained unchanged from December 2016 there was no new hawkish guidance which would have helped to boost the U.S. dollar. Thus, yesterday’s rate hike is interpreted as a ‘dovish hike’.

The U.S. dollar slipped on the unsurprising decision as well as unchanged forecasts and both euro and pound climbed toward higher targets in return. The euro touched a high of 1.0746 while euro bulls were able to pocket a good profit. The euro received an additional boost after a large majority of Dutch voters have rejected anti-European populists. Conservative Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has beaten his far-right rival Geert Wilders in the Dutch elections.

On balance, that’s good news for the euro but what can we expect from a technical perspective? There could still be some room for further upward momentum toward 1.08. If the euro climbs above 1.0750 it may head for a test of 1.08 but gains could be limited until that level. For the euro to continue to rally, it may require a break above 1.0830. If the 1.08-level remains unbroken we expect some corrections towards 1.0650 and 1.0550.

Eurozone Consumer Prices are scheduled for release at 10:00 UTC but those figures are not expected to surprise the market.

The British pound slightly strengthened on a weakening greenback but gains have been limited until the 1.23-resistance area. In case the pound will be able to overcome that hurdle we anticipate a run for 1.24.  On the downside, we will wait for a significant break below 1.22 in order to favor a bearish bias. The 1.2230/10-area could act as a current support-zone for the pound.

Today’s major risk event will be the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement at 12:00 UTC. While no changes are expected, the BoE’s statement could trigger large market moves in the GBP/USD. Let us be surprised.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co