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ECB Meeting Unlikely To Move Euro Exchange Rate

Dear Traders,

It’s decision day at the European Central Bank today but whether this event risk carries much weight will depend on ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments at the ECB press conference. Traders are looking for hints on when interest rates will begin to rise but ECB policy makers suggested earlier that a rate hike won’t come at least until the end of summer 2019. If there is no change in guidance, the euro could give up some of its recent gains.

General speaking, it seems unlikely that Draghi intents to move the single currency at today’s meeting, so watch out for range-bound price action.

As for the dollar, the most interesting piece of data will be released tomorrow with the U.S. 2Q GDP.

EUR/USD: The next hurdle is now seen at 1.1750 before we turn our focus to the crucial resistance area between 1.18-1.1850. Looking however at larger time frames, the currency pair remains trading sideways between 1.1850 and 1.15.

 

Summer trading break: We are slowly preparing for our summer holiday break which means that we are reducing risk exposure while adopting a cautious approach.

Announcement: Shortly after the summer break our Chief Currency Strategist will commence her maternity leave, which is why daily analysis and signals will be paused until the end of her period of maternity leave.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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The Rise And Fall Of The Pound Amidst Political Turmoil

Dear Traders,

The biggest story on Monday was the rise and fall of the British pound which were due to political headlines. After Davis’ resignation, Boris Johnson and Steve Baker followed, who did not support Theresa May’s less aggressive so-called ‘soft Brexit’ approach. This throws the stability of the U.K. government into question. Any signs that Brexit negotiations could be delayed due to political uncertainties, could increase the pressure on the pound.

GBP/USD: The pound rose to a high of 1.3363 before the sharp decline happened that sent sterling back towards a test of 1.32. A significant break below 1.32 could spur bearish momentum towards 1.3150 and 1.31. For bullish momentum to resume we would need to see a sustained break above 1.3320.

The euro reversed shy off 1.18 but found some short-term support at 1.1730. ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated his warning that trade wars pose the greatest risk to growth and stability. From a technical perspective, we will keep tabs on a break below 1.17 as long as the euro proves unable to overcome the 1.18-hurdle.

Today, traders will watch first monthly estimate of the U.K. GDP at 8:30 UTC. From the eurozone we have the ZEW Surveys due at 9:00 UTC.

Daily Forex Signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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U.S. Dollar Strengthened Against Euro And Pound – Now What?

Dear Traders,

The euro came down from its most recent high at 1.1720 while Tuesday’s decline in the EUR/USD was mainly due to a strengthening U.S. dollar. We now turn our focus to a day trading range between 1.1685-1.1630 and keep tabs on price breakouts either above or below that range in order to evaluate profitable trading chances in the near-term. If the euro is able to overcome the 1.1715-hurdle again, we expect accelerated bullish momentum towards 1.1820. As for the bears, the 1.1510/00-level remains of crucial importance in terms of a profitable breakout level.

The only piece of economic data today will be U.S. Durable Goods Orders at 12:30 UTC.

The British pound depreciated against the greenback and tested the 1.32-support level. As long as 1.32 holds we turn our focus to a break above the 1.33-handle. Below 1.3190 however, the pound may suffer further losses towards 1.3150 and 1.3070.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak about the Financial Stability Report today at 8:30 UTC although he is not expected to drift too far from the subject. Thus, the impact on the pound could be less significant.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Pound Surges On BoE Rate Hike Speculation

Dear Traders,

The Bank of England delivered a hawkish twist at yesterday’s BoE meeting and the British pound responded with a short squeeze towards 1.3270. The MPC voted 6-3 to hold rates steady, but the fact that there were three dissents voting in favor of an immediate rate hike leaves room for speculation about a rate increase in August. Thus, odds for a rate hike at the next BoE decision in August have increased to 45 percent from 33 percent, which in turn pushed the pound sterling towards higher price levels.

Following yesterday’s short squeeze, we may now see some consolidated movement between 1.33-1.32. If the pound is, however, able to overtake the 1.33-handle we expect a higher resistance at 1.34. Traders should generally expect more strength in the pound as we approach the BoE August meeting.

As for the U.S. dollar, the last trading session was dominated by intense selling pressure with prices rebounding off an 11-month high. We will keep tabs on the technical picture but will also take into account volatile fundamental themes such as escalating trade tensions between the US and China which are continuing to roil the markets in the near-term.

The euro benefited from the selling pressure in the greenback and recovered some losses after sellers got shy as the euro approached the 1.15-boundary.

Technically speaking, we still see the EUR/USD confined to a sideways trading range between 1.17 – 1.15.  As long as this range holds, the outlook remains neutral. For the bias to slightly shift in favor of the bulls, we would need to see a sustained break above 1.1730 with higher resistances coming in at 1.1850 and 1.19.

Have a beautiful weekend.

 

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

GBP/USD Tests Crucial Price Levels

Dear Traders,

The British pound has broken lower against the U.S. dollar after rejecting the 1.34-hurdle. The cable is still trading within a bullish channel, at least as long as 1.33 holds. We therefore may see a run for 1.3420, provided that the pound remains above 1.3290.

The EUR/USD failed to show any signs of a sustained recovery Monday while the upward movement was limited to a high of 1.1744. As long as the euro holds above 1.1675 we may see a leg higher towards 1.1850. On the bottom side we will pay attention to lower supports at 1.16 and 1.1550.

This week we will see a slew of Bank of England speakers as well as ECB President Mario Draghi who is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt today at 13:00 UTC.

For sterling traders, the U.K. Services PMI due at 8:30 UTC might be of interest, followed by a speech of BoE member Cunliffe.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

NFP Data To Spur USD Strength?

Dear Traders,

Global trade war fears are back in focus after news that the Trump administration was pursuing the metal tariffs against the EU, Canada and Mexico. While the news has led to a slide in the S&P 500 and Dow, the U.S. dollar received only little attention. The greenback is still seen as the top reserve currency but whether it can hold that title in the future remains an open question.

The euro received a slight boost from updates from Italy that an election is basically off the table. The Italian Five-Star Movement and the League parties have reached a new agreement on a possible coalition government. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte accepted an offer to form a new government with the Eurosceptic Paolo Savona who has been named as EU affairs minister.

Today, all eyes will turn to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report due at 12:30 UTC.  The U.S. economy is expected to have added 190K jobs in May while wages are expected to post modest upticks. An upside surprise in any headline figure of the report could spur the dollar’s strength.

We wish you good trades and a relaxing weekend.

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

EUR And GBP: Bearish Bias Persists

Dear Traders,

The euro traded within a 50-pip range between 1.1750 and 1.17 but despite that limited price range we were able to book a good profit with our daily long signal. Looking ahead, there are no major economic reports out of the eurozone in the next days, which is why we keep tabs on the technical picture in the EUR/USD. As long as the euro remains below 1.1790 and 1.1830, we favor a bearish stance in this pair.

The pound sterling rose to a high of 1.3422 after U.K. retail sales came in better-than-expected. However, that report was not enough to trigger a sustained recovery in the pound given that rate hike expectations are unchanged. Thus, the risk remains tilted to the downside.

With the GBP/USD trading below 1.34 and more importantly below 1.3430, the cable maintains its bearish bias, suggesting that sterling prices may continue to fall. We will wait for price breaks below 1.3360 and 1.3340 to anticipate further losses. Lower targets are seen at 1.33 and 1.3270.

Today, traders will watch the U.K. GDP report at 8:30 UTC and U.S. Durable Goods Orders at 12:30 UTC.

We wish you a beautiful weekend or long-weekend for those who have a holiday on Monday.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro Drops On Italy Concerns

Dear Traders,

The euro extended its bearish movement Wednesday. The euro’s recent weakness is, however, not only due to a strong U.S. dollar but also due to concerns about the political landscape in Italy. Signs that the far-right League and Five Star Movement parties could form a Eurosceptic, populist government in Italy have added to uncertainty in the euro area.

EUR/USD: The euro fell to a low of 1.1763 and if the currency pair is now unable to stabilize above 1.1850 we expect the downtrend to continue until 1.1720/1.1680. A current resistance is seen at around 1.1920.

GBP/USD: The British pound continued to trade within its slight downtrend channel ranging from 1.3590 to 1.3440. Recently, there wasn’t much to gain for day traders of the cable since the pair traded consolidated between 1.3620 and 1.3450. However, we hope for better trading conditions as soon as the pair breaks out of its tight trading range.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Focus On U.K. Job Report, U.S. Retail Sales

Dear Traders,

Despite the upswing in the euro and British pound, Monday proved to be a fairly quiet trading day with any larger market moves lacking. While the upside potential in the EUR/USD was limited to a high of 1.1996, none of our daily signal entries was triggered in the GBP/USD. With the crucial 1.20-barrier remaining a hart nut to crack for euro bulls, the focus shifts back to the euro’s down trend and the next support around 1.19. If the single currency drops below 1.1880 we may see a continuation of the euro’s down move.

Revisions to the Eurozone GDP Q1 figures are scheduled for release along with the ZEW Surveys today at 9:00 UTC but both reports might take a backseat to the final April CPI release on Wednesday.

The British pound refrained from a sustained climb above 1.36 and fell back towards 1.3550.

On the data front, we have the U.K. jobs figures scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and these numbers have the potential to spark volatility in the pound, provided that the report surprises. Sterling traders should thus keep an eye on the job numbers this morning. Technically speaking, the GBP/USD still finds itself within a trading range between roughly 1.36 and 1.35. Looking for sustained breakouts, we will keep tabs on prices either above 1.3650 or below 1.3440.

From the U.S. we have Advance Retail Sales scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC, a report that could have a short-term impact on the price action in the dollar.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Pound Drops On Decreased BoE Rate Hike Odds

Dear Traders,

Thursday has proved to be a high volatile trading day which became most visible in the pound’s price action following the BoE Super Thursday rate decision. While we have focused on a potential short squeeze in the GBP/USD, provided that the Bank of England would have maintained its hawkishness, the opposite scenario happened. The BoE went dovish and disappointed sterling bulls that had hoped for a bullish reversal from the pound’s lows. BoE policy makers decreased their near-term hawkish monetary policy expectations and noted that inflation may have peaked. Inflation and GDP forecasts were lowered. BoE Governor Mark Carney was back to the previous ‘slower and gradual’ rate hike path instead of warning that rate hikes could happen faster than expected.

Consequently, rate hike bets for an August rise fell to 42 percent from 62 percent. The most likely meeting for when a rate hike would occur is probably the November meeting, with a current priced-in probability of 64 percent.

As for the U.S. dollar, U.S. inflation numbers disappointed but, looking at the price action in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, the greenback refrained from showing any signs of weakness shortly after the numbers were released. However, even though inflation numbers came in weaker-than-expected, the Fed is likely to maintain its current rate hike path.

GBP/USD: The cable bounced off the rising trendline refraining from a climb above 1.3620 and finally headed for a break below the 1.35-support. At the end of the day however, the pound was more or less unchanged against the dollar with any larger swings lacking.

We will now focus on a trading range between 1.3630 and 1.3440. Any breakouts above or below these levels can spur momentum to the respective direction.

EUR/USD: The Euro tested the area around 1.1950 and euro bulls should keep an eye on a potential run for 1.20 now. As long as the euro remains above 1.1880 we favor the upward momentum.

ECB President Draghi will speak in Florence today at 13:15 UTC.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co