ECB Decision Takes Center Stage
All eyes will turn to the European Central Bank decision today at 13:15 GMT where the central bank is expected to stand pat on rates with inflation still above target. While inflation in the euro area has maintained a downward trajectory during the last year, ECB policymakers are wary of upside risks to inflation. The biggest threat might be the latest crisis in the Middle East with a temporary supply shock posing a risk to European businesses.
Traders will focus on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press briefing at 13:45 GMT for an updated view on the economy and inflation outlook.
The risk for the euro is to the downside. For the common currency to recover, Lagarde would need to sound surprisingly hawkish, dashing hopes for an ECB rate cut anywhere near as much as what markets have priced in. Markets expect the ECB to cut rates in June. If the communication among policymakers is, however, not clear, the euro could end up drifting sideways.
We will focus on a break below 1.0820 and further 1.08 in order to sell the euro towards 1.0750 and 1.07. Above 1.0935, the focus shifts back towards the 1.10-threshold.
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Our trading ideas for today 25/1/24:
EUR/USD
Long @ 1.0910
Short @ 1.0870
Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40
Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.
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