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The Unimaginable Became Reality

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Dear Traders,

What was feared is now official: Donald Trump was elected U.S. President.

What a thrilling election night! The results showed a much closer contest than expected while markets are even more nervous as Republicans maintained their control of both houses. It is perhaps a little like the Brexit vote in June when many analysts and market participants could not imagine that Britons would finally vote for an exit of the EU. And then it happened: Brexit. Today it is the same scenario and the unimaginable becomes real. Trump showed surprising strength over Clinton, shocking financial markets.

The impact of a Trump presidency on the U.S. economy is yet uncertain and it is precisely this uncertainty that worries the market. As a trader however, we are not influenced by political developments as long as there is some volatility to drive our trades. As a result, we are looking back at a profitable trading night with the euro rising towards 1.1270, providing euro bulls a good profit of 128 pips by our long-entry. The British pound lagged behind as the upward momentum of the currency was initially limited by the future Brexit outlook.

EUR/USD: The euro was showing an upward trend this morning and based on this initial trend we are now looking for higher targets at 1.1340, 1.1370 and 1.1420. If the euro breaks significantly above 1.1450, the next bullish target should be at 1.15. A trend reversal only occurs with a renewed break below 1.1040/20.

GBP/USD: The pound benefited from the sharp sell-off in the U.S. dollar. A next resistance is seen at 1.2550 while a break above that level may invigorate fresh bullish momentum towards 1.2670. Sterling bears should however wait for a break below 1.24 in order to sell the pound.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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US Election: A Fateful Day?

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Dear Traders,

It’s Election Day in the U.S. and no other event matters financial markets more than this historical presidential election. The U.S. dollar slightly strengthened amid speculation that a Clinton win is more likely and therefore will pave the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.

Let’s briefly summarize the main points:

  • Final polls show a small but not insurmountable lead for Clinton
  • Results will start to come in after polls begin closing at 23:00 UTC (6 p.m. Eastern time)
  • Voting across the country will finish at 6:00 UTC (1 a.m. EST)
  • 4:00 UTC (11 p.m. EST) Earliest possible time to announce the winner.
  • Trump win would send the USD lower, at least initially. In the long-run, the dollar may strengthen on tax cuts and spending increases. The markets will face increased volatility and uncertainty. Risk-aversion will dominate.
  • Clinton win would send the USD higher as the focus shifts to Fed rate hike in December. Her victory could reinvigorate a fresh dollar rally while investors would become less risk-averse.
  • A tight race between Clinton and Trump would add uncertainty, which would be dollar-negative in the hours after the election.

As the price action will be determined by the latest polls, traders should prepare for both scenarios. In case of a Trump win, both of our major currency pairs will trade higher. Thus the euro could rise towards 1.12-1.1250 and even towards 1.14. The British pound could rise towards 1.2670/1.27. In case of a Clinton win however, the euro could fall towards 1.08 whereas the British pound might drop back towards 1.21. Let’s be surprised.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co