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Markets Were Slightly Rattled By Europe Turmoil

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Dear Traders,

Shortly before Christmas the mood changed from pleasure to shock and grief following Monday’s multiple terrorist attacks such as the Christmas market tragedy in Berlin, which was probably a terror attack, a shooting near the Islamic center in Zurich and the assassination of Russia’s ambassador to Turkey. The killing of Russia’s ambassador Andrey Karlov and the deadly truck attack at a Berlin Christmas market, killing 12 people added to geopolitical uncertainty and caused financial market turmoil on Monday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar received a boost from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as she expressed in her speech at the University of Baltimore her optimism about the developments in the current U.S. labor market. She said that the job market is the strongest in nearly a decade and that it contributes to higher wages. All in all, dollar bulls had every reason to buy the dollar on dips, which is why a potential pullback still appears to be some way off.

EUR/USD

Double bottom or short-term support?

The euro tagged a fresh low at 1.0366 and once this level is breached to the downside, we could see the euro tumbling towards 1.03 and 1.0250. On the other hand, if the euro is able to hold above the 1.0365-level we will shift our focus to the 1.0480-mark which is seen as a current resistance in this pair. Above 1.0480 the double-bottom pattern will be played out, suggesting that the euro is headed for higher prices at 1.0530 and 1.0560.

GBP/USD

The descending triangle points to further losses. As mentioned in previous analysis we see a current support area between 1.2350 and 1.23. Furthermore, a descending trend line at 1.2340 marks the lower bound of the current trend channel so if the pound falls below 1.2340 and further 1.23, we expect accelerated bearish momentum sending the pound lower towards 1.2130.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today so the price development could be subdued.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Dollar Rally: Next Price Levels To Watch Out For

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Dear Traders,

It seems that everyone is jumping into buying U.S. dollars before year-end as this trade appears to be relatively risk-free at the moment. Amidst a strong market environment the dollar rallied to its strongest level since 2003 against the euro while the British pound dropped below 1.24 after the Bank of England’s monetary policy statement flagged global risks. As expected, BoE policymakers kept monetary policy unchanged, indicating that the outlook for the global economy has darkened amid renewed strains from rising interest rates and a strong dollar.

The U.S. dollar is on the rise, so which are the next important price levels to pay attention to?

EUR/USD

The euro broke below its crucial support at 1.0470. Given the strong downtrend we should generally expect further losses towards 1.01 and possibly also a drop towards parity but this move may not happen this year. In view of the fact the price developments are never straight-lined, we must also prepare for potential pullbacks. With this in mind, we see a next resistance at around 1.05 – the former support area in the euro. Above 1.0570 however, prices may consolidate towards 1.0670.

GBP/USD

The pound sterling faces a next support zone ranging from 1.2350 to 1.23. In case of a break below 1.2270 the pound may tumble towards lower targets at 1.2150 and 1.21. If the cable, however, is able to hold above that support area we may see a renewed test of 1.2520 and 1.2660.

 

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. Eurozone Consumer Prices due at 10:00 UTC should be of secondary importance as no changes are expected. From the U.S. we only have Housing Starts scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC but this report is unlikely to affect the USD.

We hope that you were able to take some profits this week and wish you a relaxing pre-Christmas weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Euro And Pound Are Not Able To Maintain High Levels

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar slightly strengthened versus the euro and pound Tuesday. The euro gave up some of its recent gains but was, for the time being, able to hold above the 1.07-mark. With only one day to go before the ECB meeting we do not expect huge market moves in the EUR/USD. Rather, we expect the euro to range-trade between 1.0760 on the upside and 1.0660 on the downside. There are no major important economic reports scheduled for release today, so market participants may stay on the sidelines.

The British pound reversed after peaking at 1.2775 and fell back below 1.27. Recently, sterling was supported by hopes that a hard Brexit can be avoided but the Supreme Court’s ruling on the legitimacy of the U.K. government to trigger Britain’s exit from the EU is still far from done and dusted. From a technical perspective we see next supports around 1.2550 and 1.25 where the pound is probably headed before gaining some ground.

U.K. Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures are scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC and could impact the cable’s price action.

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro Paradoxically Rallied Despite Political Risks

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Dear Traders,

It was a paradox: The euro shrugged off political risks from Italy and rallied towards 1.08 amidst political uncertainties in Europe. The short squeeze in the EUR/USD can be explained by profit taking after the euro rejected to extend its losses beyond 1.05. However, given the anti-establishment mood sweeping around the world we doubt that the euro can hold onto its recent gains. Thus, dollar bulls may jump in again and take this opportunity to sell EUR/USD at higher levels. Nevertheless, we will also discuss a potential bullish scenario.

If the euro rises above 1.08, traders will be asking “How high the euro might go?”. So let’s try to figure it out.

EUR/USD

Given the impressive bull candle in the daily chart, we might see further upward movement before the euro reverses. In short-term time frames a next resistance could be at 1.0830/50, followed by a stronger resistance zone at 1.0950. If the euro takes the next hurdle at 1.0830, chances increase that it heads for a test of 1.0960. Above 1.0970 however, the euro may rises towards 1.1030 and perhaps even towards 1.11. Current supports are however seen at 1.0650 and 1.06.

chart_eur_usd_daily_snapshot6-12-16

GBP/USD

The cable is still on the rise but we expect gains to be limited until 1.2760 and 1.28. A significant break above 1.28 may drive the pair towards 1.2860 but then we may see some pullbacks. Crucial supports are seen at 1.26 and 1.25, which is why sterling bears should rather wait for a break below 1.2480.

chart_gbp_usd_daily_snapshot6-12-16

 

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro Drops On Prospects Of EU Instability

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Dear Traders,

Italy votes ‘No’ and the euro falls. The single currency dropped more than 1% against the U.S. dollar after Prime Minister Matteo Renzi‘s program of constitutional reform was rejected by Italian voters by a clear majority in Sunday’s referendum. Renzi said he will hand in his resignation to President Sergio Mattarella on Monday and while there are fears the vote could further shake up Europe’s financial stability, investors are selling the euro and Italy’s bonds as they see Italy as the biggest risk to the future of the eurozone. Markets now assess the risk of early elections and if they happen, the eurosceptic Five-Star Movement could campaign on a promise to hold a referendum on Italy’s membership in the euro.

While a ‘No’ vote was already priced into Italy’s government bonds the most immediate concern is a potential banking crisis and the risk of contagion around Europe. So all in all, short-term prospects for the euro appear to be somewhat gloomy so let’s take a brief look at the technical picture.

EUR/USD

In an initial reaction to Renzi’s defeat, the euro dropped towards 1.05 but it was able to stabilize around 1.0560. If it falls again below 1.0530 we see a higher likelihood of further losses towards the descending trend line which is currently at 1.0470/60. Below 1.0460 however, the dollar rally could accelerate with the euro heading towards parity. For the euro to gain some ground it might need to stabilize above 1.0585 and then head back towards the 1.0660-resistance.

chart_eur_usd_4hours_snapshot5-12-16

Austria‘s presidential vote was however received with relief after Alexander Van der Bellen defeated Norbert Hofer, sending “a signal of hope and positive change throughout Europe”. The Austrian vote was seen as a victory over the populist sentiment in Europe.

The focus now shifts to the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and while a period of political uncertainty might follow after Renzi’s defeat, the ECB could announce even more aggressive measures to support the European economy.

From the U.S. we do not have any market-moving economic reports scheduled for release this week. The ISM Non-Manufacturing index is due for release today at 15:00 UTC but given the fact that NFP numbers have been released before the report, it should be of less importance.

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Monthly Review: Profits Despite Recent Sideways Trend

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Dear Traders,

We welcome you to the trading month of December. While November has proven very profitable for day traders yesterday’s trading was not to our liking as we had to give up some monthly gains with both currency pairs trading directionless sideways. The U.S. dollar was supported by better-than-expected private jobs data but the euro found some halt slightly above 1.0550. Our short-entry therefore failed to provide a sustained profit. The British pound seesawed between 1.2515 and 1.2420 and thus our daily entries were unfavorably triggered before prices reversed. On balance, however, we look back at a successful month in November with a profit of 509 pips generated by our daily signals, as well as 125 pips by our monthly swing signals.

Given investor’s risk aversion ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report and the Italian referendum on Sunday, we do not expect huge market movements today. Nonetheless we will keep an eye on incoming data releases such as the German Manufacturing PMI (8:55 UTC), U.K. Manufacturing PMI (9:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing due at 15:00 UTC.

EUR/USD

The euro is still confined to a sideways trading range and we will wait for breakouts either above 1.0670 or below 1.0560. Euro bulls should however bear in mind that any upward movements might be limited until 1.0715.

chart_eur_usd_4hours_snapshot1-12-16

 

GBP/USD

The cable seems to be headed towards a test of 1.2550 but let’s wait and see. Above 1.2560 the pound may climb towards 1.2670 and even perhaps 1.28. On the downside we will now wait for a sustained break below 1.24.

chart_gbp_usd_daily_snapshot1-12-16

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Is The U.S. Dollar Poised For A New Round Of Strength

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar regained some of its strength, pushing the euro and cable lower. While the euro stopped its fall slightly above 1.0560, the British pound turned out to be Monday’s worst performer and dropped towards 1.2385. British companies are increasingly pessimistic about the future outlook and with the Brexit debate intensifying, the pound remains vulnerable to larger losses. We currently see a higher likelihood of a bearish breakout in the GBP/USD but we recommend traders waiting for a break below 1.2350 in order to sell sterling.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned that Britain, rather than the Eurozone, would be the first to suffer from the consequences of a Brexit. When speaking at the European Parliament in Brussels on Monday he described a cocktail of political risks hanging over the global economy, including the Brexit vote, Donald Trump’s election and the looming Italian referendum. Draghi also signaled the ECB’s readiness to continue its monetary stimulus. At the ECB meeting next week, the central bank is widely expected to announce an extension of its bond-buying program.

EUR/USD – Interesting chart formation

While there are good arguments for both bulls and bears favoring one direction or another, it should be interesting in which direction the euro may be heading within the next days. Given the uncertainty ahead of the Italian referendum, the risk is to the downside but with investors staying on the sidelines in the run-up to the important vote on Sunday, the euro could also trade directionless sideways. For the time being, we expect the pair to range-trade between 1.0670 and 1.0570. Above 1.0670 it may head for a test of 1.0710, whereas a break below 1.0560 may invigorate fresh bearish momentum towards 1.0470.

chart_eur_usd_4hours_snapshot29-11-16

Important economic data for today:

13:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index

13:30 USA GDP Report

15:00 USA Consumer Confidence

(Time zone: UTC)

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Quiet Trading Over US Thanksgiving Holiday?

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Dear Traders,

The market’s sentiment was recently strongly influenced by political events and while political risks in the Eurozone continue to build up, the euro went into a tailspin. With the Italian constitutional referendum coming in on December 4, the situation for the euro may deteriorate as political risks are rising across Europe.

Trump’s win seems to have reinvigorated populist sentiment across the continent and if the UK can Brexit, the US can elect Trump, it is also possible that France and Italy could pull out of the EU. In this uncertain political environment, the euro remains vulnerable to losses. However, bearing in mind that the euro is oversold in short-term time frames, we expect some corrections in the EUR/USD.

The economic calendar this week is rather light in terms of market-moving data. The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday usually leads to low liquidity in the market, which is why we do not expect significant market movements this week. The only interesting piece of U.S. data will be Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday followed by the FOMC Meeting Minutes which are expected to confirm the hawkish tilt of the Federal Reserve. Everything else than a Fed rate hike next month would be a big surprise.

From the Eurozone, we have the PMI Report (Wednesday) and the German IFO Report (Thursday) due for release this week. Furthermore, ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at the European Parliament in Strasbourg today at 16:00 UTC.

Technically we expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.07 and 1.0530 in the near-term while a break above 1.0720 may invigorate some bullish momentum towards 1.0770 and 1.08 whereas a break below 1.0520 would increase the pressure on the currency pair.

GBP/USD

The pound sterling dropped towards 1.23 and sterling bears are eager to see whether the cable will break below that crucial support. After a break below 1.23 we see a next lower target at 1.2150. A break above 1.2550 however, would shift the bias in favor of the bulls.

chart_gbp_usd_daily_snapshot21-11-16

From the U.K. , the only interesting piece of economic data will be the Autumn Budget Statement (Wednesday) and Friday’s GDP Report.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Yellen Confirmed Rate Hike Expectations But Watch Out For Corrections Now

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Dear Traders,

And the winners were once again: Dollar bulls. However, it was no surprise that the dollar further strengthened after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled the likelihood of a December rate hike. She said that a rate increase “could well become appropriately relatively soon”, giving investors the green light to expect a move next month. Yellen cautioned that the Fed did not want to wait “too long”. Regarding the future economic outlook under Trump she said that policy makers “don’t know what’s going to happen” and that the Fed “will be watching the decisions that Congress makes and updating their economic outlook as the policy outlook becomes clearer”.

In a nutshell, the Fed remains on track to raise interest rates as Trump’s election has not altered the central bank’s short-term plans whereas in the future, “there’s a great deal of uncertainty”.

From a technical perspective, we all know that a rate increase is being well priced in BUT with more than three weeks to go before the FOMC rate decision in mid-December the dollar is clearly overbought, making corrections more likely in the near-term.

EUR/USD

The euro trades in a well-defined downward channel and based on that channel the euro might tend to drop towards 1.0525 before it corrects some losses. But be careful: The pair is oversold and we should now expect upcoming corrections towards 1.07 and 1.0750.

chart_eur_usd_4hours_snapshot18-11-16

The technical picture in the GBP/USD has not changed much. After dipping below 1.24 sterling bears will have to wait for a significant break below 1.2330 and further 1.23.

There are no economic reports scheduled for release today. The only interesting event for euro traders could be Draghi‘s speech at the Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt scheduled at 8:30 UTC.

We gained again a good profit this week and wish everyone a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will U.K. GDP Numbers Drive The Pound To 1.21?

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar weakened slightly against the euro and British pound Wednesday. After peaking at a daily high of 1.0946 the euro, however, shied away from its resistance at 1.0950 and dropped back below 1.09. If the EUR/USD remains unable to take the hurdle at 1.0950 we expect further losses towards 1.08. In case of a rise above 1.0965 it may head for a test of 1.10. The greenback will be back in focus within the next 48 hours with Durable Goods Orders scheduled for release today at 12:30 UTC and Gross Domestic Product data due tomorrow. GDP data and the nonfarm payrolls report next week will offer further clues on the health of the U.S. economy.

The pound sterling still remained within its current trading range between 1.2250 and 1.2150. Above 1.2250 it may head for a test of 1.2320 but be careful, the risks are currently rather still geared to the downside and it only takes one negative impulse to reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum in the GBP/USD. This impulse might come from important U.K. data such as today’s Gross Domestic Product figures, due at 8:30 UTC. If GDP numbers come in below expectations we could see sterling tumbling towards 1.2150 and further 1.21. Below .2130 we are looking for a steeper fall towards 1.20.

chart_gbp_usd_4hours_snapshot27-10-16

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co