Maimarfx – Page 3

U.S. Dollar Extends Decline On Powell Remarks

June 23, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The U.S. dollar extended its recent decline after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged uncertainty around increasing inflation risks at yesterday’s hearing. While Fed policy makers believe that price increases will likely wane, Powell said that inflation overshoots “have been larger than we expected and they may turn out to be more persistent than we expected.” He said the Fed will not raise interest rates preemptively while policy makers “will wait for actual evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances.”

The EUR/USD extended its rebound until 1.1950. Above 1.1960 we expect the pair to head for a test of 1.20. A current support is seen at 1.1850.

The GBP/USD refrained from breaking above 1.3965 – at least until this morning. Above 1.3965 we will pay attention to a potential test of 1.40 and maybe even a run for 1.4080. A current support is seen at 1.38.

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EUR/USD And GBP/USD Rebound: More Upside Potential?

June 22, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Both euro and British pound rebounded against the U.S. dollar Monday and more upside potential could be in store given the oversold situation in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

EUR/USD

Bulls should now pay attention to a break above 1.1925 which could see a next leg up towards 1.1950 and 1.20. Falling back below 1.1885 could increase bearish momentum towards 1.1850 and 1.18.

GBP/USD

The cable stabilized above 1.38 and further 1.39 after its dip below 1.38 has proved short-lived. Above 1.3965 we anticipate a bullish test of 1.40 and possibly even 1.41. Sterling bears on the other side, should pay attention to a break below 1.3780 in order to expect further losses.

DAX

The index rebounded from its support area around 15300 and headed back towards 15700. We expect the DAX to remain between 15900 and 15300 in short-term time frames.

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Low Volatility

June 8, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Dear traders,

Both euro and British pound ended the day slightly higher against the U.S. dollar Monday while volatility remains at very muted levels. We brace for higher volatility on Thursday and recommend traders taking profits at smaller targets today and tomorrow.

DAX

The rally lost some momentum recently and while we still see slightly higher levels, there is no significant bull breakout. Above 15770 we may see a test of 15800 but given low volatility levels we do not expect exaggerated movements. Below 15750, chances are in favor of a correction towards 15500 and 15200.

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Quiet Start To The New Week

May 31, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Welcome to this new trading week, which we hope will provide more profitable opportunities than the last consolidative week.

U.S. and U.K markets are closed today for the Memorial Day and the Spring Bank holiday, so it might be a quiet start to the new week. Later in the week, the focus turns to the May U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report that will offer clues on the economic recovery. It will be interesting to see whether the previous disappointing job gain in April was a one-off or the start of something more persistent. Economists expect that ongoing reopening in the U.S. will pull a significantly higher number of Americans into employment in May, so Friday’s job report shouldn’t be as disappointing as the previous one.

GBP/USD

The latest consolidative phase leaves prices confined to a sideways trading range between 1.4240 and 1.4090. Once that price range is broken, we expect a higher target to be at 1.43. On the downside and with a break below 1.4090, a next support may come in at around 1.4050.

EUR/USD

Looking at longer time frames it seems as if bullish momentum is fading with the pair being on overbought territory. While 1.23 remains a next target to watch out for, sentiment could quickly change in favor of the bears if the euro is unable to overcome 1.2250. Below 1.2050, the euro could fall towards 1.1950 and 1.1850.

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Quiet Trading Environment

May 25, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Trading in the Forex market was relatively quiet on Monday with the greenback slightly weakening against the euro and British pound.

Elsewhere, traders were able to profit from larger movements. The DAX tested the area around 15600 and our long entry thus provided a good gain.

Technically, the picture in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD has not substantially changed with short-term resistance levels at 1.2250 and 1.4250 remaining in focus.

As for the outlook in the U.S. dollar we remind traders that the Federal Reserve taper debate will return to the fore next month and if there is a corresponding rise in Treasury yields, we could see a fresh round of dollar strength.

Market conditions could however be quieter this week as major catalysts lack.

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Greenback Strengthens On Optimistic FOMC Minutes

May 20, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The U.S. dollar ended the day higher against its counterparts as the minutes showed Federal Reserve officials were cautiously optimistic about the U.S. recovery with some indicating they would be open “at some point” to discussing adjustments to the pace of bond purchases. In other words, the taper talk could be on the table as early as next month which could bolster the greenback. The Fed next meets June 15-16.

GBP/USD: The cable slid below 1.4140 and is currently testing the 1.41 short-term support. Below 1.4070 we expect further losses towards 1.40 whereas on the upside, the 1.4170-level will be of particular interest. An upside break of 1.4170 could lead to another upward movement towards 1.4250 while in the opposite case, if that level remains unbroken, we could see the formation of a head-shoulders pattern, predicting steeper losses.

DAX: The index dropped below 15000 but the dip proved to be short-lived. As long as the DAX holds above the crucial 15000-mark we expect another run for higher targets at 15570 and maybe even 15800.

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Euro And Cable Head For Higher Targets

May 18, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Both euro and British pound resumed their uptrends while GBP/USD is heading towards 1.42 in early Asia trading this morning. As stated in our analysis from Monday we expect a next target to be at 1.4220 followed by 1.4240.

The EUR/USD trades with a tailwind but failed to provide bulls a sustained profit on Monday. The 1.22-mark remains however a next target for euro bulls.

The Dax trades near its record high at 15518 and every trader is waiting for an upside break of that level to see how much further the index can go.

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A Perfect Trading Day

May 14, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Yesterday was a perfect trading day for traders in the DAX since we got the big gains we have been looking for, both bears and bulls. As expected, the index accelerated its decline after the 15000-level was significantly breached to the downside and extended its losses towards 14800. We booked a 100-points gain with our short signal. We then saw a U-turn with the DAX strongly rebounding towards 15300, ending the day in positive territory. Also our long signal reached the big profit target of 100 points. We now recommend traders to save weekly and monthly profits and lower the risk per trade.

The situation was different in both currency pairs which traded in relatively small price ranges above the crucial support-levels, failing to provide greater gains.

We may see some higher volatility in the FX crosses today with the U.S. retail sales report due for release at 12:30 UTC. However, there may be less of a market reaction compared to Wednesday’s CPI report.

We wish everyone a beautiful weekend.

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GBP/USD: Vulnerable To Corrections Below 1.4180

May 11, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Sterling bulls were able to book a good profit Monday with the pound climbing to a high of 1.4158. While one reason for the pound’s strength can be attributed to the relief over Scottish elections, traders should bear in mind that further political clashes over the U.K.’s future might be happening in the months to come. Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP party failed to win an outright majority, but with support from the pro-independence Green party, the SNP would have enough to form a pro-independence majority – a headwind for the pound in the future.

However, what matters at the moment is the U.K. economy and with the country due to be fully re-opened by June 21, more sterling gains are likely. We see a next higher target now at 1.4180 before some correction might be due.

EUR/USD: The euro refrained from a significant dip below 1.2130 and could still head for 1.2250. If the pair falls below 1.2110 it could extend its correction towards the current support around 1.2050.

DAX: The index fell below 15300 and we now focus on lower targets at 15140 and 15100. Below 15080 the index could extend its fall towards 14950. Above 15360 bullish momentum could accelerate.

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Wie hoch können EUR/USD und GBP/USD gehen?

May 10, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Der U.S. Dollar ist mit weiteren Verlusten in die neue Woche gestartet nachdem die U.S. Arbeitsmarktdaten vom letzten Freitag weit unter den zuvor sehr hohen Markterwartungen lagen. Der Stellenzuwachs lag bei lediglich 266.000 neuen Jobs im April, wobei im Vorfeld von einer Million ausgegangen worden war. Was wir am Freitag sahen war ein starker Abverkauf im Dollar, wobei die schwachen Job Daten vermuten lassen, dass die Federal Reserve ihre expansive Geldpolitik noch für eine Weile beibehalten wird.

GBP/USD

Der beste Performer war das Britische Pfund, welches die wichtige Widerstandsbarriere bei 1.40 überwand aufgrund eines schwächelnden U.S. Dollars auf der einen und des Beginns der geldpolitischen Straffung seitens der Bank von England auf der anderen Seite. Aus fundamentalanalytischer Sicht ist der wirtschaftliche Ausblick im Vereinigten Königreich weiterhin positiv einzustufen denn das Land beendet seine Lockdowns während über die Hälfte der Bevölkerung bereits immunisiert ist. Was das Schottische Unabhängigkeitsreferendum anbetrifft, so verfehlte Nicola Sturgeons SNP Partei in der Wahl von letzter Woche mit einem Sitz die absolute Mehrheit, was Sterling Investoren etwas aufatmen ließ. Während ein Unabhängigkeitsreferendum damit nicht vom Tisch ist, so scheint die unmittelbare Gefahr für das Pfund vorerst gebannt.

Technisch gesehen ist der kurzfristige Ausblick bullisch – vorausgesetzt der Cable hält sich oberhalb von 1.39. Wir sehen ein nächstes höheres Ziel bei 1.4150. Damit jedoch die Bullendynamik anhält, müsste sich das Pfund oberhalb von 1.40 stabilisieren. Bricht hingegen auf der Unterseite 1.3920, könnten sich die Chancen zugunsten der Bären wenden.

EUR/USD

Der Euro stabilisierte sich oberhalb von 1.2130 und könnte sich nun auf dem Weg in Richtung von 1.2250 befinden. Solange das Paar oberhalb von 1.2040 verbleibt, bevorzugen wir den Aufwärtstrend.

DAX

Der Index tendierte aufwärts während jetzt langsam wieder die 15500-Marke in den Fokus rückt. Wir werden auf einen Bruch des April-Hochs bei 15518 warten um das Augenmerk in Richtung höherer Ziele jenseits von 16000 zu schwenken. Eine aktuelle Unterstützung könnte sich bei 15300 befinden.

Am Mittwoch stehen die U.S. Inflationsdaten an und könnten von besonderem Interesse sein, denn eine Steigung im Monat April könnte vermehrt Druck auf die Fed ausüben, über eine geldpolitische Straffung eher früher als später nachzudenken. Am gleichen Tag wird Bank von England Gouverneur Andrew Bailey auf die Geldpolitik eingehen, was einen Einfluss auf das Pfund haben könnte.

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