It’s decision day at the European Central Bank today but whether this event risk carries much weight will depend on ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments at the ECB press conference. Traders are looking for hints on when interest rates will begin to rise but ECB policy makers suggested earlier that a rate hike won’t come at least until the end of summer 2019. If there is no change in guidance, the euro could give up some of its recent gains.
General speaking, it seems unlikely that Draghi intents to move the single currency at today’s meeting, so watch out for range-bound price action.
As for the dollar, the most interesting piece of data will be released tomorrow with the U.S. 2Q GDP.
EUR/USD: The next hurdle is now seen at 1.1750 before we turn our focus to the crucial resistance area between 1.18-1.1850. Looking however at larger time frames, the currency pair remains trading sideways between 1.1850 and 1.15.
Summer trading break: We are slowly preparing for our summer holiday break which means that we are reducing risk exposure while adopting a cautious approach.
Announcement: Shortly after the summer break our Chief Currency Strategist will commence her maternity leave, which is why daily analysis and signals will be paused until the end of her period of maternity leave.
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