Middle East – MaiMarFX

Bearish Momentum To Accelerate?

April 15, 2024/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The euro fell to a fresh low on Friday against the U.S. dollar. The psychological 1.07-barrier broke to the downside, giving way to a fall towards 1.06 and thus, a dip into oversold territory. The European Central Bank’s dovish stance laid the groundwork for the euro’s downturn while traders now expect the ECB to be the first central bank to cut rates even earlier and clearly before the Fed.

EUR/USD

The euro dropped to a low of 1.0622 and given the strength of that latest bearish move on the one side and geopolitical tension and inflation on the other side, we expect further bearish momentum. Next lower targets (red lines) are seen at 1.0520 and 1.0450.

The greenback has regained attention after higher-than-expected U.S. inflation forced a hawkish repricing in the dollar. Also on the geopolitical front, the dollar is likely to remain supported amidst the escalation of the war in the Middle East.

The cable, like the EUR/USD has dropped sharply and the bearish move has the potential to extend.

GBP/USD

After 1.25 broke we turn our focus to lower support areas around 1.2380 and 1.23. A break below 1.2270 could even result in a dip towards 1.22. On the upside, the area around 1.26 could now act as a resistance.

DAX

The highflying index has corrected. A crucial support could come in at 17600-17500 from where buyers may jump back in. The general uptrend remains intact as long as the DAX oscillates above 17000.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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Currencies Struggle For Direction Ahead Of A Busy Week

October 30, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

This week is fully-loaded with event risk but the U.S. dollar lacked follow through after the recent flow to safe haven currencies amid the Middle East escalations.

On Wednesday market participants widely expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates but traders hope to get some insight on the rates outlook from Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. There is no new dot plot, so the only spark of volatility could come from Powell’s comments with a surprise hawkishness.

On Thursday, the Bank of England is also expected to keep rates on hold as policy makers try to help boost the ailing economy while at the same fighting inflation. Investors see the BoE as being the least aggressive next year when it comes to projected rate cuts even as the economy flirts with a recession. Therefore, anything in the Bank’s forecasts that supports the higher for longer case might offer the pound some support.

Last but not least, we have the latest U.S. Jobs Report released on Friday. October job figures are predicted to come in a lot lower than the strong 336k September print. A stronger report would add fuel to the rally in yields and thus boost the greenback.

Technically, we prepare for upcoming breakouts given the lingering uncertainties in the Middle East.

EUR/USD: Below 1.0530, the euro could test the 1.05-support again on its hold but if 1.0440 breaks again, we could see a free-fall towards 1.02. On the upside, we expect the 1.07-region to serve as a resistance.

GBP/USD: We will now wait for price breaks either below 1.2070 or above 1.2260. A next lower target will be at 1.18 whereas on the upside the next target would be 1.24.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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Calm Before The Storm?

October 23, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Welcome to a new trading week everyone.

Last week was none of our favorite trading weeks since both of our currency pairs have taken a breather and remained within tight sideways trading ranges. The EUR/USD remained stuck between 1.0620 and 1.0520 while the GBP/USD hovered around 1.21.

More volatility was however seen in the DAX which fell towards 14770 and thus hit the lower descending trendline of its recent downtrend channel. Based on that channel we may see some pullback towards 15150 in the next days but if 14700 breaks to the downside, bearish momentum could accelerate towards 14500.

What is in store this week?

While the big elephant in the room will be escalating tensions in the Middle East, the key focus is on the European Central Bank rate decision on Thursday. The ECB is expected to remain on hold and keep interest rates unchanged but could stress that rates will stay high for an extended period. If ECB President Christine Lagarde signals that this pause could mean the conclusion of the bank’s aggressive tightening campaign, the euro will fall against the U.S. dollar. If, on the other side, Lagarde leaves the door open for another rate hike at a later date, the EUR/USD could recover towards 1.07.

Furthermore, the U.S. PCE Price Index is scheduled for release on Friday.

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Further Bearish Momentum?

October 16, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The U.S. dollar roared back to life as safe haven demand increase due to concerns of escalation and spread in the Middle East.

As written in our last technical analysis, we prepared for renewed bearish momentum in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD which has proved to be key last Thursday and Friday.

Next targets to watch out for

EUR/USD: The euro retreated after hitting 1.0640 and thus the area around the upper descending trendline of the pair’s latest downtrend channel. It then fell back towards a test of 1.05. For accelerated bearish momentum we would need to see a break below 1.0480. A lower target is seen at 1.0350. Bulls on the other side, will wait for prices above 1.0620 in order to buy euros towards 1.07.

GBP/USD: The cable held above 1.2120 so far but it will depend on geopolitical tensions whether we will see a next leg down to 1.19. As for sterling bulls we recommend waiting for a renewed break above 1.23 in order to buy sterling towards 1.24.

DAX: The index is hovering the 15100 area but we prepare for further losses towards 14800. On the upside we see a strong resistance at around 15500 which could limit any bullish momentum for now.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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Middle East Crisis As Risk Factor

October 9, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The news of violence erupting in the Middle East has roiled markets and despite the U.S. dollar’s haven status in times of trouble, the euro and British pound are (still) holding quite well against the greenback at the opening of this new week. The dollar even showed a reluctance to a further rally after Friday’s solid jobs report that saw 336k new jobs in September.

Following the shock of the Hamas attack in Israel over the weekend, the dollar opened only with a small upside gap.

However, the instability in the Middle East has the potential to reignite the greenback’s rally and may brings back the discussion about whether the euro may once again fall to parity.

Bob Savage, head of markets strategy at insights at BNY Mellon Capital Markets wrote in a note: The “dollar bid holds and the confusion over growth and inflation continues. We are more likely to see an escalation of conflict than a resolution both at home and abroad, in markets and in economics, in monetary and fiscal policy.”

Today is a holiday in the U.S. which may contribute to slipperier market conditions than usual on these days with less liquidity.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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