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All Eyes On NFP Data

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Dear Traders,

It is U.S. jobs day and the May Nonfarm Payrolls report is considered the top event risk this week as it could generate big swings for the U.S. dollar. The greenback’s performance was only modestly affected by yesterday’s solid ADP report and a strong ISM manufacturing report, so traders hope for more profitable swings today. The expectation is for 180K jobs to have been added in May and while a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting on June 13 and 14 is widely expected, investors will read between the lines to assess the economic environment in the U.S. The dollar has been weak throughout the month of May and dollar bulls need a good reason in order to reinvest into the dollar trade.

The first trading day of June has been a challenging one for sterling traders as the cable traded choppily sideways, triggering and eliminating pending orders easily. We hope for more profitable trading opportunities today.

The euro refrained from falling below the 1.12-mark and hold steadily above that threshold. In case of a dip below 1.1190 we will once again shift our focus to the 1.1160-support. Lower barriers are seen at 1.11/1.1080 and 1.10 whereas any upward movements above 1.1265 could be limited to a high of 1.1350.

The Payrolls report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC today.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Will NFP Help Or Hurt U.S. Dollar?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The biggest story on Thursday was the rise of the euro which has surged to a high of 1.0987. The euro is currently supported by expectations of a Macron win in the final round of French elections this Sunday. While we bear in mind that if Le Pen surprises on Sunday, the market’s reaction would be far greater, the most likely scenario is however a victory of the pro-euro candidate Emmanuel Macron. Markets are therefore unlikely to budge much if Macron wins.

Apart from the French election, great attention will be paid to the Non-Farm Payrolls report which appears to be the market-moving event for this week. The U.S. Jobs report is forecast to show a job growth of 190K jobs last month but the focus will also be on Average Hourly earnings. A large miss in this key figure or a disappointment in payrolls growth may raise doubts about a Fed June rate hike. In other words, a disappointment would have a greater impact on the market than a strong report. In case of a weaker jobs report the U.S. dollar could come under strong selling pressure.

The NFP report is due at 12:30 UTC today.

We wish you good trades and a nice weekend!

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will Payrolls Inject Momentum To The Sluggish Market?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Overall, yesterday’s trading was not to our liking with the euro remaining confined to its three-week range between 1.0640 – 1.05 and the cable trading choppily in between our daily entry levels. In a nutshell, there was more to lose than to win from an unsteady market environment.

The euro benefited from a positive assessment of the euro-area economy while the ECB’s monetary policy stance has not fundamentally changed. The ECB statement came in as expected while Mario Draghi said downside risks to the euro zone economy were less pronounced. Even if the next change from the ECB will be towards removing accommodation and not adding stimulus, it is still too early for a shift in monetary policy.

The EUR/USD rose to a high of 1.0615 and that was it. The price development remained relatively moderate and major market moves are still lacking. The short-term bias has slightly changed in favor of the bulls but it is the appetite for U.S. dollars that will dictate the price action and thus, traders are eagerly waiting for the March Non-farm Payrolls to determine direction.

The GBP/USD was moving sideways between 1.2195 and 1.2135. Unfortunately, our entries were placed on top and below that sideways trading range. Therefore we have been struggling with false breakouts. U.K. Industrial production is due for release at 9:30 UTC but this report will take a backseat to the highly anticipated NFP report.

Today’s U.S. jobs report is the last top event risk before the Fed meeting next week. A healthy report is widely expected but the expectations are very high. Hence, there is a risk of disappointment, which would carry a higher impact than an upbeat report.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Quiet Trading

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The euro’s short-lived break above 1.0630 proved unsuccessful after euro bulls got fooled by the false breakout. It may require another test of that resistance level to finally invigorate further bullish momentum but the price action will also hinge on the appetite for U.S. dollars ahead of Friday’s payrolls report. However, from a technical perspective, nothing has changed and we still wait for prices either above 1.0630/40 or, on the other side, below 1.0490.

The pound sterling depreciated against the U.S. dollar but held steady above its 1.22-support. In short-term time frames, we now wait for a renewed break below 1.2230 in order to sell sterling towards 1.2190.  On the topside we anticipate the 1.2285-level to act as a current resistance. For the pound to rally, it would need to significantly break through the 1.23-level.

There are no major important economic reports scheduled for release today, so trading could be quiet again with market participants remaining risk-averse until the end of the week.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Bearish Momentum To Continue? All Eyes On NFP Numbers

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Yesterday’s Super Thursday disappointed the market’s expectations with the Bank of England’s moderate inflation expectations making a potential rate hike this year less likely. Sterling bulls have hoped for a change in the central bank’s policy stance as well as higher inflation forecasts. However, the opposite turned out to be the case: While growth forecasts were raised slightly higher, inflation forecasts for 2017 were lowered down to 2.7% from 2.8%. Furthermore there was no change in the BoE’s monetary policy stance as Brexit and Trump lead to uncertainty, making it difficult for the BoE to consider higher rates anytime soon.

The pound dropped in response to the ‘less-hawkish’ statement and is currently hovering just above the 1.25 level. From a technical perspective, we now expect further near-term losses in the GBP/USD and still focus on a break below 1.24. Lower targets could be at 1.23 and 1.2270.

The euro traded confined to a narrow 80-pips trading range. While a break above 1.0810 failed to provide any sustained profit, bearish momentum appears to be not yet enough to push the euro significantly lower. We recommend waiting for a break below 1.0730 in order to sell euros towards 1.0680.

Today’s price action will however mainly hinge on the outcome of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC. Economists expect a 175,000 increase in payrolls for January with unemployment likely to remain relatively stable. The focus will also be on wage pressures.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Payrolls Report To Determine Direction

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar suffered a significant correction after the ISM Manufacturing index showed an unexpected contraction in August, raising doubts about global growth optimism. The British pound started to rise against the greenback in the wake of an unexpected strong U.K. manufacturing PMI, showing signs of expansion in the U.K. after the Brexit vote. Even though our buy order in the GBP/USD was triggered slightly later due to high slippage around the release time of the U.K. data, we were able to get a piece of the pie and secure some profit.

The euro flirted with the 1.12-level on the back of a weakening dollar and it will be interesting to see whether the euro is able to hold onto its higher price level going into the highly anticipated U.S. jobs report. Economists predict job growth will slow to 180k in August from 255k in July. While traders are waiting for the payrolls to determine the direction in the market, there is a risk that the outcome could disappoint the market’s high expectations. However, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenarios but advise traders to trade the payrolls report with caution.

The U.S. Jobs Report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. Sterling traders should also keep an eye on the U.K. Construction PMI due at 8:30 UTC.

We wish you profitable trades and a wonderful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

All Eyes On U.S. Payroll Report

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The biggest story in the markets yesterday was the British pound which dropped like a stone after the Bank of England unleashed a stimulus package to combat the post-Brexit fallout. All MPC policy makers have unanimously decided to cut interest rates for the first time in seven years while further rate cuts may follow later this year if the economic outlook proves to remain grim. BoE Governor Carney said in his statement that the central bank “took these steps because the economic has changed markedly”, declaring that all elements of the stimulus can be taken further, including another rate cut. Furthermore, the BoE cut its growth forecast for 2017 to 0.8 percent from 2.3 percent (the most ever) and lowered its 2018 predictions. All this was enough for sterling bears to drive the pound lower towards 1.31. A next support area could now be at 1.3085-1.3065. Once the 1.3060-level gives way to the downward pressure, we could see sterling falling towards 1.30.

The euro remained largely unchanged against the U.S. dollar and traded comfortably between 1.1150 and 1.1115. We were a bit unlucky with our short-entry at the lower bound of the euro’s trading range which was exactly triggered before the price reversed. We now focus on a break below 1.11 before shifting the attention to the 1.1050-support. Euro bears should rather wait for prices below 1.1050 in order to sell the euro towards lower levels. However, above 1.1190 the euro may head for another test of 1.1230. A current resistance is seen at 1.1275.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot5.8.16

Today it’s payrolls-day again and all eyes will be on the highly anticipated U.S. labor market report at 12:30 UTC. The monthly jobs report will provide more information on whether the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates in 2016. The report is expected to show a slower job growth in July after the strong increase in June but this does not necessarily mean that dollar bulls have no chance this month. Market participants will also pay close attention to the unemployment rate and wage growth figures and if these headlines come in with a positive surprise the dollar will rally. In case of any disappointments however, the greenback might be vulnerable to losses.

We wish good trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Can U.S. Payrolls Increase Investor’s Appetite For Risk?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Thursday was again a trading day without any profitable movements in the EUR/USD. Our short-entry has proven unsuccessful as the euro found a short-term support at 1.1050. We now focus on an upside break above 1.1120 for bullish and vice versa, below 1.1025 for bearish engagements. Unlike the euro, the cable fluctuated within larger ranges, marking a current trading range between 1.3050 and 1.2875. As we generally expect further losses in the pound, a break below 1.2875 will be the most closely watched scenario in the near-term.

All eyes will be on today’s U.S. jobs report with market participants wanting to see if the disappointing May Non-Farm Payrolls were an aberration or a signal that the U.S. economy lost momentum. The payrolls report is expected to show a job growth of 180,000 workers, confirming that last month’s drop was a temporary thing. If data disappoints, however, the U.S. dollar could be vulnerable to losses, sending the euro and pound higher in return. In general terms, the dollar’s performance will hinge on investor’s risk appetite.

The June Nonfarm Payrolls report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. On every payrolls day we remind traders that this is a high risk event which should be traded with caution. In phases of extreme high volatility, pending orders can be triggered and stopped out within seconds, which is why we recommend waiting until payroll figures are released before entering the market.

EUR/USD

As long as the euro trades below 1.11, the bias remains slightly bearish. Provided that the short-term downward channel remains intact, we will focus on a break below 1.1050 and 1.1020, which could send the euro towards 1.0970 and 1.0850. The descending triangle becomes void as soon as the euro climbs above 1.11.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot8.7.16

 

 

We wish you good trades and a wonderful weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

U.S. Jobs Report To Determine Direction

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The euro traded lower ahead of today’s highly anticipated U.S. jobs report, which may shed light on U.S. growth and whether the economy is strong enough for higher interest rates. The payrolls report is forecast to show a 200k jobs-increase for April but it would require an upside surprise in the headline figures of the report. We can speak of a strong jobs report if the unemployment rate shows a decline, average hourly earnings are on the rise and payrolls growth exceeds at least 220k. If there will be no upside surprise, supporting the case for tighter monetary policy in the near-term, the dollar could give up some of its recent gains.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

EUR/USD

It all depends on today’s key employment data, but from a technical perspective traders should focus on the overall picture. In the medium-term the euro is still trading within an upward-channel. Given the recent downward move we will now focus on the lower bound of that channel which is currently around 1.1360/40. If the euro breaks below 1.1335 we see chances of further losses towards 1.12 and 1.1150. If, on the other hand, the euro is able to climb again above 1.15 and farther 1.1530, it could even head for a test of 1.1630. However, if NFP data fails to impress, the EUR/USD could remain confined to a trading range between 1.15 and 1.1350.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot6.5.16

The British pound, however, refrained from trading lower than 1.4443. After a break below 1.4440, sterling could be vulnerable to further losses and we will shift our focus to lower targets at 1.4330. A current resistance is seen at 1.4520.

We wish all traders a profitable trading day but bear in mind that the trading on payrolls day is highly risky and is therefore not for the faint-hearted. Personally, we will not invest our weekly profits and take it easy today.

Have a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Payrolls To Be A Glimmer Of Hope For The USD

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Bulls take control of both major currency pairs, although the British pound struggled with an extension of its recent gains. As noted in previous analysis, we still expect the pound to come under renewed pressure in the near-term and we anticipate a drop towards 1.4280 and 1.42. The technical picture is discussed later on. The euro, however, tested the 1.14-barrier after the 1.13-support has proved to be resilient.

All eyes will be on the U.S. Payroll report scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT today. Nonetheless a strong report probably wouldn’t be a game changer for the Fed’s outlook after Mrs. Yellen sent a clear signal to proceed cautiously. In case of a strong labor market report the highest importance is attached to a much-needed acceleration in wage growth. Average hourly earnings must show an uptick in order to revive any strength in the U.S. dollar. However, if wages fail to show acceleration the greenback could suffer further losses.

Furthermore the most important leading indicator for payrolls – the ISM Manufacturing index – is only due for release after the jobs report (14:00 GMT) but could still affect the price action in the USD.

Let’s have a look at the technical picture:

EUR/USD

It all depends on the demand for USD but given the recent uptrend channel upside movements could be limited until 1.1420. Once the euro breaks above 1.1430 it could head toward the key resistance at 1.15. However if NFP numbers are strong the dollar could strengthen, leading to a correction in the recent uptrend. Current supports are seen at 1.13 and 1.1220, but given the bullish bias euro bulls are likely to buy any pullback.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot1.4.16

GBP/USD

After peaking at 1.4459 the pound favored the downtrend and is now facing an important support at 1.43. Once this support has been significantly breached to the downside, we expect the pound to drop towards 1.4250 and 1.42. Below 1.4190 it could even decline towards 1.4150 and 1.4060. After the break above 1.44 turned out to be unreliable for sterling bulls, it might be better to wait for prices above 1.4435 and further 1.4465.

 

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot1.4.16

We wish every trader profitable trades.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co