Posts

Potential U.S. Government Shutdown And Germany’s Coalition Talks In Focus

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar continues to disappoint dollar bulls while being unable to find its footing against other major currencies. Market participants remain focused on the political risk potential around the U.S. government shutdown, which could take effect at the end of today’s trading day if no budget deal is reached. With developments in Washington being the primary focus, the dollar could remain under pressure.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index is due at 15:00 UTC, but this report might only have a limited impact on the greenback.

The pound sterling gained further ground against the dollar and seems to be well on track to recover its post-Brexit referendum losses. The GBP/USD followed the recent uptrend and climbed back above 1.39 after finding fresh support at 1.38. If the pound holds above 1.3850 we could see a bullish run for 1.40 and possibly 1.4040.

The U.K. Retail Sales report is due at 9:30 UTC today and could have a minor impact on the pound’s price action.

The Euro held above 1.22 but traders should be aware of profit-taking ahead of the upcoming ECB meeting next week. There is increased speculation that ECB President Draghi will seek to talk the Euro lower following its rapid appreciation. Apart from the ECB’s monetary policy, there will be a vote by the Social Democrats in Germany to begin talks regarding a grand coalition this weekend. If the SPD votes against a coalition the euro could suffer a setback.

From a technical perspective we keep tabs on the 1.2350-level which could serve as a short-term resistance in the EUR/USD. Euro bears should however wait for prices below 1.2190 in order to expect accelerating bearish momentum.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Euro And Pound Strengthen Amid Sideways Trend

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Both euro and British pound slightly recovered against the U.S. dollar at the beginning of this week. Yesterday’s upward movements contribute to keeping the current sideways trading range in both currency pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD intact.

While we do not expect larger market swings in these final trading days we focus on the technical picture and its crucial support and resistance zones.

EUR/USD: The euro rose above 1.18 but rejected the 1.1835-level. We will now focus on a trading range between 1.1825 and 1.1750. If the euro breaks above 1.1825 we expect further gains towards 1.19. On the downside, we see current support levels at 1.1750 and 1.17.

The German IFO Index is scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC but this report is not expected to have a significant impact on the euro.

GBP/USD: The pound advanced and marked an intraday high at 1.3418. However, as long as we see the cable trading between 1.3475 and 1.3275 we will not pay much attention to the current price action.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Pound Drops On Risks Of Hard Brexit But Sideways Trading-Range Remains Intact

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Heading into the final trading days of 2017, volatility is expected to remain low in the run-up to the Christmas holiday. There are no significant drivers or market-moving data releases on the economic calendar which is why we recommend taking a cautious approach to new investments now.

The British pound fell to a low of 1.3301 last Friday on risks of a hard Brexit. The second phase of Brexit negotiations between the U.K. and EU will be even harder than the first and investors are skeptical that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will achieve a soft landing when U.K. leaves the EU in 2019.

GBP/USD

While we currently favor a sideways trading range between 1.3480 and 1.3280 the risk appears to be tilted to the downside. If the pound falls below 1.3260 we expect further losses towards 1.32. However, even if larger movements are unlikely given the liquidity drain, traders should always expect the unexpected.

EUR/USD: The euro was little changed with the crucial support at 1.17 remaining intact. As long as the euro trades between 1.1920 and 1.17/1.1660 there is nothing new to report.

The economic calendar is relatively quiet this week. The U.S. GDP report (Thursday) may receive some attraction even though no surprises are expected. Traders may also keep an eye on the PCE Index and Durable Goods Orders (Friday) but all these reports might be of less importance as the year draws to a close.

Sterling traders may listen to comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on Wednesday when he speaks at a Parliament Hearing in London.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Markets To Enter Quiet Trading Period

/in /by

Dear Traders,

With all major risk events now behind us, there was little movement in the market Thursday as many market participants around the globe are gradually leaving for the Christmas holidays. Given the seasonal liquidity drain we recommend taking profits at smaller targets now or staying on the sidelines, considering a trading break around this period.

The euro weakened against the U.S. dollar after ECB President Mario Draghi sounded cautious about the prospect of higher inflation in the coming months even though the economic outlook remains positive. The ECB unveiled updated economic projections that showed continued growth over the next three years but despite that positive outlook, the central bank is not planning to raise rates anytime soon. In a nutshell, with the ECB still being far from raising rates, euro bulls did not see a reason to push the euro higher -at least not for the time being.

The pound was little changed following the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement. As expected, the BoE left interest rates unchanged and following the latest BoE rate hike in November, the central is not expected to raise rates in the coming months.

GBP/USD: In short-term time frames we expect the currency pair to trade between 1.35 and 1.33.

EUR/USD: The 1.17-support remains in focus and if the euro drops below that important barrier, we expect further losses towards 1.16. Above 1.1930 however, the euro could head for 1.2050.

We wish you a beautiful and peaceful pre-Christmas period.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Pound Falls Victim To Failure To Reach Brexit Agreement

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Yesterday was absolutely none of our favorite trading days as we had to struggle with volatile but choppy swings in the GBP/USD after U.K. Prime Minister May and European Commission President Juncker failed to reach an agreement on Brexit negotiations due to divisions over Ireland. The pound’s performance was disastrous for breakout trades as the pound failed to determine a directional bias, trading choppily sideways between 1.3540 and 1.3410. The pound sterling remains very sensitive to new Brexit headlines and as we enter the final phase of the year when liquidity typically dries out, we must prepare for unexpected price swings and heightened volatility despite low liquidity.

The euro ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the greenback and our short entry has unfortunately proved unsuccessful after bearish momentum faded. We will now focus on a break either above 1.1930 or below 1.1835.

Traders of the GBP/USD should better wait for price breakouts above 1.3565 (bullish) or below 1.3380 (bearish).

Important economic data today:

9:30 UK PMI Report

15:00 USA ISM Non-Manufacturing

(Time zone UTC)

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Pound Jumps On Brexit Hopes

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Many wondered yesterday what happened to the pound as it jumped more than 150 pips after falling to a weekly low of 1.3220. The high volatility was triggered by reports that the U.K. and E.U. have agreed a deal over the U.K.’s Brexit divorce bill, achieving a breakthrough in Brexit talks. The pound experienced high volatile swings in the wake of these reports and, unfortunately, some of our yesterday’s trades became victims of high volatility.

The GBP/USD could now head for a test of the 1.34-threshold and if the 1.3450-level is breached on the upside we could see sterling rallying towards 1.36. As for the bears, the bearish momentum came to an abrupt end yesterday and it will be difficult to only focus on the technical picture as the pound is mainly affected by Brexit talks.

The EUR/USD traded lower and that bearish bias can be attributed primarily to the demand for U.S. dollars. The Senate tax cut proposal advanced out of committee and toward a floor vote. With the tax reform moving closer towards realization we expect the greenback to receive a further boost. Ongoing concerns about North Korea however, seem to play a minor role for the dollar.

EUR/USD

The single currency faces a crucial support around 1.18 and if this barrier gives way to fresh bearish momentum we could see the euro falling back towards 1.1720. If 1.18 however holds, we anticipate a potential run for 1.20.

What will be important today?

The German Consumer Price Index will be release at 13:00 UTC but this report is not expected to have a major impact on the euro. From the U.S. we have revisions to the third quarter GDP scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC followed by Yellen’s appearance before the Congress at 15:00 UTC.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

EUR/USD And GBP/USD (Still) Favor Downtrend

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The pound fell after yesterday’s Bank of England testimony from Governor Mark Carney was less hawkish than hoped. While Carney sticks with his view that policy adjustments would likely be made in the coming months he said the central bank is making contingency plans for a “hard” Brexit. Despite the U.K. inflation print of 3 percent that is likely to force the BoE to hike rates in the near-term the pound is very sensitive to Brexit headlines. In the absence of progress, the pound remains vulnerable to losses but if negotiations between the UK and EU are proceeding constructively, the pound could gain some ground.

The U.K. Labor Market Report is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and could have an impact on the pound’s price action.

The euro depreciated against the U.S. dollar but found some halt at 1.1735.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 8:10 UTC at the “Structural Reforms in the Euro Area” conference in Frankfurt. If he touches on monetary policy the euro could respond with volatile swings.

As for the greenback, there are no major driving forces at the moment. The priced-in probability of a Federal Reserve December rate hike increased to 80.2 percent while the focus will be on President Donald Trump’s choice for the next Fed chair, which will be unveiled before November 3. If Yellen stays in her post, it could be dollar-positive. If, however, Powell takes over the office from Yellen the dollar could fall since he favors gradual rate hikes.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

All Eyes On Theresa May Speech

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar’s recovery turned out to be only short-lived with the British pound and euro regaining some ground against the greenback Thursday. The British pound has proven to be the best performing currency in September so far but storm clouds could gather over the currency. The pound’s recent strength has been based on the hawkish shift in the Bank of England’s monetary policy stance. Consequently, the market has begun to price in a potential BoE rate hike later this year. However, even if a change in monetary policy is an important driver in the market, there is also another fundamental driver that can change everything: Brexit. The U.K.’s divorce from the EU could cloud the outlook for the country’s economy and its currency. In a nutshell, future monetary policy decisions will depend on the Brexit theme which still represents the biggest uncertainty factor for the United Kingdom.

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is scheduled to provide an update on the Brexit theme in her speech in Florence today at 19:00 UTC. So far, no breakthrough was reached after three rounds of negotiations between the UK and EU. May’s speech is, however, expected to strike a positive tone and this optimism is reflected in the pound’s upward movement. Theresa May is expected to offer up to 20 billion pounds to retain access to the single market. Should her speech reinforce confidence that Brexit will brighten for the UK, the pound will benefit and could further rise. If May, however, confirms that the troubles remain, the pound could crash.

We currently see GBP/USD trading within an upward trend channel between 1.3690 and 1.3470. While today’s price development could be oriented toward these barriers, the pound’s direction will depend on May’s speech. We expect higher volatility around that speech.

 

Investors may also keep an eye on speeches by Federal Reserve officials and ECB President Draghi today. While Draghi refrained from touching on the ECB’s monetary policy in his speech yesterday he may offer further clues about tapering today.

The EUR/USD traded with a tailwind and we now focus on higher targets at 1.20 and 1.2050. A current support is however seen at 1.1870.

On Sunday September 24, Germans go the polls and this German election could also matter for the rest of Europe and thus the euro. If big chances are taking place, the euro will respond on Monday morning when markets open. Let’s be surprised.

We wish good trades and a wonderful weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Sterling Traders Focus On U.K. CPI Data

/in /by

Dear Traders,

We have seen a bit of a bearish reversal in EUR/USD Monday with the U.S. dollar recovering against the euro. Although yesterday’s slide in EUR/USD does not automatically mean that there will be a trend reversal, it should be noted that the technical picture may promise more downside momentum to come. If the euro falls below 1.1920 and further 1.1885 we could see a slide towards 1.1830. On the topside, buyers in the EUR/USD would first need to push the pair above 1.2030 in order to focus on higher targets at 1.21 and 1.2170.

The British pound ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the greenback with GBP/USD remaining confined to a narrow trading range between 1.3225 and 1.3160. Traders await the U.K. CPI report, due for release at 8:30 UTC today and if inflation data shows an uptick in August, the Bank of England may feel pressure to turn away from its dovish monetary policy stance. This would be positive for the pound but most volatility is expected on Thursday when the BoE announces its rate decision and outlook on policy.

If the pound rises above 1.3225 we may see a run for 1.3265. We bear in mind that the August high is at 1.3268, so sellers may sweep in to sell pounds around that resistance level. On the downside, we expect a support to be at around 1.3050.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Yen Serves As Safe Haven On Korea Worry; Euro And Pound Unmoved

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Nothing much has changed in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD while a holiday trade was clearly in effect on Tuesday. Other currencies, such as the yen were sought as a safer haven after North Korea said Tuesday it successfully test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, escalating tensions between North Korea and the U.S.

The political turmoil comes ahead of the G-20 summit in Hamburg this weekend. U.S. President Trump will attend the G-20 summit and is expected to hold his first meeting with Putin.

Today, market participants will focus on the Federal Reserve and its minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. Investors are looking for clues on the path for interest rates ahead of the U.S. jobs report due on Friday. With a number of market participants doubting the Fed rate hike plans, the FOMC meeting minutes could be an interesting event for traders.

The FOMC minutes are scheduled for release at 18:00 UTC.

The EUR/USD found some near-term support at 1.1335 but we expect a stronger support to be at 1.13. If the euro falls below 1.1280 we could see a slide towards 1.1220. Euro bulls should however focus on a renewed break above 1.14 in order to buy euros towards 1.15.

The GBP/USD refrained from dipping significantly below 1.29, at least for the time being. In order to sell pounds we will keep an eye on prices below 1.2880. Lower supports are seen at 1.2850 and 1.28. Buyers of the GBP/USD should either take advantage of corrections towards 1.2885 and 1.28 or wait for a breakout above 1.3030.

The U.K. PMI report is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and could have a short-term impact on the pound.

We wish you good trades for today!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co