With all major risk events now behind us, there was little movement in the market Thursday as many market participants around the globe are gradually leaving for the Christmas holidays. Given the seasonal liquidity drain we recommend taking profits at smaller targets now or staying on the sidelines, considering a trading break around this period.
The euro weakened against the U.S. dollar after ECB President Mario Draghi sounded cautious about the prospect of higher inflation in the coming months even though the economic outlook remains positive. The ECB unveiled updated economic projections that showed continued growth over the next three years but despite that positive outlook, the central bank is not planning to raise rates anytime soon. In a nutshell, with the ECB still being far from raising rates, euro bulls did not see a reason to push the euro higher -at least not for the time being.
The pound was little changed following the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement. As expected, the BoE left interest rates unchanged and following the latest BoE rate hike in November, the central is not expected to raise rates in the coming months.
GBP/USD: In short-term time frames we expect the currency pair to trade between 1.35 and 1.33.
EUR/USD: The 1.17-support remains in focus and if the euro drops below that important barrier, we expect further losses towards 1.16. Above 1.1930 however, the euro could head for 1.2050.
We wish you a beautiful and peaceful pre-Christmas period.
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