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Pound Marks Support At $1.34- But For How Long?

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar initially rose against the euro and British pound Monday morning but then ended the trading day virtually unchanged. Given these limited bearish movements, there wasn’t much to gain for short traders.

The cable has pushed down to a low of 1.3390 but the pair was able to stabilize above 1.34. Whether the 1.34-barrier will hold, remains to be seen but as long as GBP/USD remains below 1.35 we generally maintain a bearish stance in this pair. A significant break above 1.35 would shift the focus back to a previous sideways trading range between 1.36-1.35.

BoE Governor Carney will testify before parliament this morning at 8:15 UTC. Any new comments on inflation or monetary policy changes could get the pound moving.

The euro bounced off the 1.1715-level and corrected previous losses towards 1.18. The downtrend is still intact and as long as EUR/USD remains below 1.1850 we anticipate lower supports to come in at 1.1680 and 1.16.

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USD Rally Appears Overstretched

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar resumed its advance on Monday but we are continuing to be on the lookout for reversals since the dollar’s rally could be somewhat overstretched in many major currency pairs.

The euro extended its slide to a low of 1.2184 but the breakout below 1.22 appears unsustainable, at least as long as the euro remains above 1.22. We now keep tabs on the 1.2240/50-level which could act as a short-term resistance in the EUR/USD. A higher resistance is seen at 1.2330. On the bottom side, we expect a lower support around the 1.2160/55-level that could limit losses. We bear in mind that the pair is in oversold territory which is why traders should prepare for pullbacks.

Short traders of the GBP/USD have been able to gain a good profit in recent days. Commentary made by BoE Governor Carney has sent the pound into a tailspin as he prompted speculation that a rate hike in May is not sure. Consequently, rate hike odds have dropped from 85 percent to below 50 percent following Carney’s remarks.

The GBP/USD traded with a heavy bearish bias and dropped towards 1.39. Given the oversold situation, we still expect some pullback sending the pound back towards a test of 1.4015 and 1.4050. A lower support is, however, seen at around 1.3875.

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GBP Tests Support, What’s Next?

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Dear Traders,

It came as it had to come in the GBP/USD: The British pound retreated from its highs and corrected some of its recent gains. Before yesterday’s pullback happened, we saw the pound touching a fresh post-Brexit high at 1.4377 but the U.K. employment report put an end to the cable’s rally. As we warned traders yesterday, the pullback was inevitable given the overbought situation in the GBP/USD. The job report was, however, generally positive and likely to keep the Bank of England on track to raise interest rates next month.

Today we have the U.K. Consumer Price Report scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC. If inflation numbers come in weaker than expected, the pound could drop towards 1.4230/20. A significant break below 1.4220 could even open the door for a larger decline towards 1.4150. If the pound sterling is, however, able to gain ground above 1.43, buyers may take the opportunity to buy pounds at lower levels with a higher target at 1.4420.

The euro’s climb above 1.24 had been brief while the pair EUR/USD was unable to hold above that important threshold – at least for the time being. With the 1.24-barrier being a hart nut to crack, we now focus on the 1.2350-support which is equivalent to a rising trendline of the recent uptrend channel. Euro bulls should pay attention to a break above 1.2425 which could justify accelerated bullish momentum towards higher targets.

The Eurozone Consumer Price report is scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC but as long as there is no surprise in the headline figure, the report’s impact on the price action could be limited.

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Lackluster Price Development While Focus Remains On Syria

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Dear Traders,

Geopolitical tensions have been on the lighter side yesterday but the situation remains fragile.

As long as the risk of military conflict between Russia and the U.S. in Syria remains high, we may see a lackluster price development in the market which provides little profitable trading opportunities. Traders should therefore maintain a cautious approach.

The euro traded with a downward tilt following relatively dovish ECB minutes. The minutes highlighted the appreciating euro as a cause of concern for the economic outlook in the Eurozone, as well as the risk of trade conflicts. While we anticipated short-term bullish sets after a test of either 1.23 or 1.2250, the price action in the EUR/USD remains more or less range bound despite the primary bullish trend.

Technically speaking, we now expect the euro to trade between 1.2380 and 1.2250. If the euro drops below 1.2280 it could be headed for a test of 1.2250/20. Whether we will see some more volatile (and hopefully more profitable) market movements in the Forex market will depend on the market’s risk appetite for currencies.

The pound sterling caught a bid and rose back above 1.42 following a test of the potential support level at 1.4145. We now expect the GBP/USD to trade within an upward trend channel between 1.43 and 1.4190.

The only piece of economic data today will be the release of the University of Michigan Sentiment at 14:00 UTC.

With the focus being on news on Syria, traders should stay alert to possible changes in sentiment but as long as the risk appetite among investors is low, trading might be quiet.

We wish you a nice and peaceful weekend.

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Powell’s Speech To Be Front And Center In The Market

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Dear Traders,

There was little follow-through after the pound broke above 1.4040 but the cause for the cable’s reverse is easy to identify. In the 4-hour chart there is a falling trendline beginning at the January high which prevented sterling bulls from pushing GBP/USD beyond 1.4070. Rather, bears were swooping in around that trendline, sending the cable back towards the 1.39-support. Whether 1.39 holds, remains to be seen. If the pound drops below 1.39 we favor a bearish stance with lower targets at 1.38 and 1.3750. On the topside, we would need to see another break above 1.4050 in order to anticipate further bullish momentum.

Unlike the GBP/USD, the EUR/USD remained within a narrow trading range between 1.2355 and 1.2275.

Today’s testimony from new Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be front and center in the markets. At 13:30 UTC Powell’s Congressional Testimony will be released while Powell testifies to House Financial Services Committee at 15:00 UTC. This important event risk could have a strong impact on the dollar’s price action which is why traders should prepare for high volatility around his speech.

Powell will testify on the economy and monetary policy and if he gets specific on rate hikes and emphasizes the potential need of even 4 rate hikes this year, the dollar could rally. If he, however, refrains from providing specific guidance on what to expect from the Fed (most likely scenario before the Fed’s next meeting on March 20-21), the dollar could be losing ground against its major counterparts.

Other economic data reports will take a backseat to Powell’s speech today.

We wish you good trades!

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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EUR/USD & GBP/USD: Next Targets To Watch Out For

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Dear Traders,

For sterling traders Thursday has been another challenging trading day with GBP/USD fluctuating between 1.3990 and 1.3850. The U.K. GDP was revised lower but that report was not enough to spur bearish momentum towards 1.3830 and 1.38. The reason for yesterday’s rise was mainly a weakening USD which gave up gains from the FOMC minutes.

The euro traded higher following the ECB minutes but bullish momentum fizzled out after the euro was unable to overcome the 1.2350-level. The minutes were not overwhelmingly hawkish but what is interesting to note is that ECB officials expressed concern that the Dollar was being deflated artificially by U.S. policy which in turn was lifting the euro.

There are no major reports scheduled for release today that could lead to a major change in sentiment. Thus, we will focus on the technical picture.

EUR/USD: We now expect the pair to trade between 1.2330 and 1.2220. If the euro, however, breaks above 1.2360 bullish momentum could accelerate towards 1.24.

GBP/USD: As long as the cable remains below 1.3970 we prepare for dips towards 1.3880 and 1.3810. A sustained break above 1.40, however, will increase the chances of a bullish run for 1.42.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

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U.S. Dollar Weakness Continues

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar’s weakness continued while there was nothing to prevent the euro and pound from further rising against the greenback. The British pound was able to stabilize above 1.40 on the back of positive Brexit-related news and climbed back up towards 1.4150.

The euro rose in tandem with the pound after stabilizing above 1.2455.

Given the strong uptrend in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD we could possibly see further gains but traders should be careful and watch out for potential corrections in the near-term.

EUR/USD: The euro took out the 1.25-hurdle and seems to be primed for a clear breakout above its recent trading range with the upper barrier being at 1.2540. Next hurdles could come in at 1.26 and 1.2640. While traders now may favor the upward direction, we will also pay attention to possible pullbacks towards 1.25, 1.2450 and 1.2370.

GBP/USD: The pound experienced a parabolic rise towards 1.4150 while that next barrier could serve as a make-it or break-it level. If the pound breaks the 1.4150-level significantly it could further rise towards 1.4270 and 1.43. Below 1.4065 however, bearish momentum could accelerate driving the pair back towards a test of 1.40.

It all depends on the market’s risk appetite. From a fundamental perspective, there are no major reports scheduled for release today.

Have a wonderful weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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U.S. Inflation Print To Impact The Dollar’s Price Action

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Dear Traders,

We got what we were looking for in the GBP/USD: A breakout of the cable’s narrow trading range even though that breakout has proved not as strong as we had hoped for. Sterling bulls attempted to push the pound above 1.39 but bullish momentum was somewhat muted following the U.K. January inflation print which came in at 3 percent, better than the 2.9 percent forecast ahead of the release. Overall, rising prices and economic fundamentals create conditions for a stronger currency even if Brexit risks are the main concern for investors.

Technically speaking, we now expect the GBP/USD to trade with a slight upward tilt heading towards 1.3970/80. If the pound is able to take out the 1.40-hurdle again, we will focus on higher targets around 1.4160. A current support is seen around 1.3740.

The EUR/USD broke above 1.2340 and is currently heading towards 1.24. If it breaks significantly above 1.2410, we may see another leg up towards 1.2470. As long as 1.23 holds, chances are in favor of the bulls. Euro bears should better wait for prices below 1.2280.

Today’s focus turns to the U.S. inflation figures due at 13:30 UTC. The U.S. Consumer price index probably increased at a moderate pace in January. Investors will pay particular attention to that report, which is why potential surprises in the inflation print could have a significant impact on the dollar.

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FX Market Less Influenced By Equity Selloff And Subsequent Rebound

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Dear Traders,

The Forex market was less influenced by the selloff in equities at the beginning of this week. While the recent crash and subsequent recovery in equities have sparked a wave of volatility in global markets, the moves in forex have been more conservative.

The EUR/USD remained resilient and ended the trading day virtually unchanged after bouncing off near the 1.2310/00-support level. As long as the euro trades between 1.25 and 1.23 there is nothing new to report.

The GBP/USD dropped amid heightened volatility towards 1.3830 from where a relief rally started, erasing earlier losses with a rebound towards 1.40. At the end of the day, the pound ended the trading unchanged against the dollar. Traders should now prepare for larger swings with Brexit talks and Super Thursday looming.

GBP/USD

Looking at the daily chart we see that bearish momentum is fading after the pound stopped its fall above 1.3830. While we expected lower targets to be at 1.3830 and 1.38, we now prepare for potential pullbacks. If the pound climbs back above 1.40 and is able to stabilize above that threshold, we anticipate further bullish momentum towards 1.42 and possibly even a break above 1.43. That bullish scenario is however not a foregone conclusion as sellers may re-emerge.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Markets To Enter Quiet Trading Period

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Dear Traders,

With all major risk events now behind us, there was little movement in the market Thursday as many market participants around the globe are gradually leaving for the Christmas holidays. Given the seasonal liquidity drain we recommend taking profits at smaller targets now or staying on the sidelines, considering a trading break around this period.

The euro weakened against the U.S. dollar after ECB President Mario Draghi sounded cautious about the prospect of higher inflation in the coming months even though the economic outlook remains positive. The ECB unveiled updated economic projections that showed continued growth over the next three years but despite that positive outlook, the central bank is not planning to raise rates anytime soon. In a nutshell, with the ECB still being far from raising rates, euro bulls did not see a reason to push the euro higher -at least not for the time being.

The pound was little changed following the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement. As expected, the BoE left interest rates unchanged and following the latest BoE rate hike in November, the central is not expected to raise rates in the coming months.

GBP/USD: In short-term time frames we expect the currency pair to trade between 1.35 and 1.33.

EUR/USD: The 1.17-support remains in focus and if the euro drops below that important barrier, we expect further losses towards 1.16. Above 1.1930 however, the euro could head for 1.2050.

We wish you a beautiful and peaceful pre-Christmas period.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co