Scotland Referendum

The best performer on Wednesday was the DAX which rebounded towards 15200 while we have made a large catch with our long entry at 15020 that ended with a 100-points profit.

Today the focus turns to the British pound and the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision. Some investors expect the central bank to slow the pace of bond purchases by a small amount instead of ending the stimulus abruptly in November. Policy makers are also expected to upgrade forecasts for growth and inflation today.

The pound will rally if the BoE tapers more drastically than currently expected. However, a slowdown in the pace of purchases could probably not have the same impact as the tightening seen by the Bank of Canada last month but it will be important to know whether rate hike expectations are being brought forward and whether there is still a likelihood of a further total envelope or not as the U.K. economy rebounds sharply from pandemic lows. If the BoE disappoints the market’s hawkish expectations, the pound could fall below 1.38.

The Bank of England decision is scheduled for 11:00 UTC.

GBP/USD

The cable remained in a narrow trading range ahead of today’s risk event and we expect some larger movement around the BoE decision. Above 1.3915 we see a next resistance at 1.3950 which needs to be broken before shifting the focus to 1.40 again. A bullish breakout above 1.4010 could result in a strong bullish move towards 1.42. On the downside we will keep an eye on the support levels. A break below 1.38 could lead to a test of 1.3770, followed by a lower target at 1.37. Below 1.3660 the pound could extend its slide towards 1.3550.

The next risk event for the pound will be today’s parliamentary elections in Scotland. The election could have profound consequences for the U.K. since it will decide not just who runs Scotland, but whether the battle for another Scottish independence referendum by the end of 2024 is back on the table.

Scotland elections could thus prove a litmus test for the nation’s appetite for breaking away from the United Kingdom. There is potential for massive chaos across the U.K.’s economic landscape in the next years if a split happens. Some investment managers see a 10 percent devaluation of the pound amid financial chaos and recession. The market is currently not pricing in such scenario.

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The U.S. dollar ended the last week higher against the euro and British pound and while the dollar’s recent strength appeared to be month-end rebalancing flows, traders wonder whether the dollar could extend its gains this week. Greenback bulls could hope for further bullish potential as long as there is a rise in U.S. Treasury yields but we bear in mind that rising near-term inflation expectations could outpace gains in U.S. Treasury yields while a dovish Federal Reserve could limit gains in the dollar.

On Friday we will have April’s non-farm payrolls report scheduled for release and almost one million jobs are anticipated to be added. The unemployment rate is also expected to decline to 5.7 percent from 6 percent in the previous month. The focus will also be on average hourly earnings for further insight into inflationary pressures.

GBP/USD

It could be a volatile week for the British pound. The Bank of England is due for its monetary policy announcement on Thursday and a QE taper could be in the cards. On the same day Scotland holds parliamentary elections which could bring back expectations of another independence referendum. Sterling could come under pressure ahead of the election as a potential referendum remains a risk for the currency.

As for Thursday’s other risk event, the Bank of England is expected to upgrade its economic projections with a stronger Q2 GDP forecast and there is a chance that the BoE will announce a slight tapering of asset purchases.

Technically, chances are slightly in favor of the bears right now with the pair eyeing the 1.38-support. If the cable falls below 1.3770, we could see a test of the lower support around 1.37 and possibly even a fall towards 1.36. However, given the possibility of a BoE taper on Thursday, losses might be limited to the support zones.

EUR/USD

The euro gave up some of its recent gains and dipped towards its crucial support at 1.20. We expect a lower support area to be at around 1.1950 from where more buyers could swoop in. A current resistance is seen at 1.2130. If the euro falls below 1.1940, bearish momentum may accelerate towards 1.1850 and 1.18.