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Geopolitical Tensions Lead To Risk-Aversion In The Market

Dear Traders,

Yesterday’s U.S. inflation data and March FOMC minutes took a backseat to geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Syria. U.S. President Trump warned Russia of incoming airstrikes on Syria for the Assad regime’s suspected use of chemical weapons. The prospect of U.S. military action against Syria have led to broad-based risk aversion in the market with Gold benefiting from its reputation as a safe-haven investment.

From a technical perspective there was nothing to gain for day traders in the Forex market with the U.S. CPI data and FOMC having only a limited impact on yesterday’s price action amidst the risk-off mode in the market.

As long as the risk of military conflict between Russia and the U.S. in Syria remains very high, we may see a lackluster price development in the market which provides little profitable trading opportunities.

Looking at the technical daily chart in both major currency pairs we see that near-term momentum is deep in overbought territory which is why we are looking for upcoming pullbacks.

EUR/USD: A drop below 1.2330 could open the door for accelerated bearish momentum towards 1.23 and 1.2250. However, given the overall uptrend buyers may swoop in at lower levels following a potential pullback. On the topside, the euro would need to take out the 1.24-hurdle to spark fresh bullish momentum towards 1.2430 and 1.2470.

Euro traders should keep an eye on the ECB minutes which are due for release today at 11:30 UTC.

GBP/USD: The pound refrained from stabilizing above 1.42 and dropped back towards 1.4160. We now expect a lower support zone to come in between 1.4120-1.4080. A current resistance is however seen at 1.4270.

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