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This Week To Set The Tone Until Year-End

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Dear traders,

We welcome you to a crucial trading week that has a potential to set the tone for financial markets for the rest of the year.

The main event will be tomorrow’s U.S. election, with Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in polls. However, the senate may matter more for the markets than the President since a so-called “blue wave” (Democratic sweep) scenario is believed to be priced in and if Biden wins the presidency but his party does not gain enough seats in the Senate than we will have the worst scenario for the market.

In short, a divided government will be poison for the markets while a shift in control in the Senate (blue wave congress) could quickly pass a large stimulus plan, which is considered market friendly. But we bear in mind, that despite a Biden lead, Trump has a narrow but viable path to an election win, even though the surprise 2016 election result is less likely this time.

Given the fact that the coronavirus pandemic is driving record numbers of people to vote by mail and counting all votes could take days, or weeks we may need to wait longer than usual to learn who won the presidential race this year.

Whatever the outcome, we will prepare for swings on either side to get the best out of the market’s reaction.

While the U.S. election is front and center in the coming days, we also have the Bank of England and Federal Reserve meeting (Thursday) as well as the U.S. labor market report (Friday) on this week’s calendar.

The Bank of England is widely expected to add to its own bond-buying program as new coronavirus lockdowns put pressure on policy makers to act. The new lockdown in U.K. could also bolster talk of negative interest rates, which could weigh on the pound.

The Federal Reserve, which also meets this Thursday, has signaled that it’ll do what’s needed to keep borrowing costs contained.

This week will most likely be accompanied by a sharp rise in volatility, which is why traders should prepare for larger and sharper market movements.

We wish everyone good trades and hopefully a good profit!

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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GBP/USD: Prepare For Reversals

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Dear Traders,

U.S. President Donald Trump accused China and Russia of devaluing their currencies with the consequence that investors refrained from buying dollars amid concerns about the U.S. policy. The dollar further weakened against the euro and pound.

The British pound was the best performing currency on Monday and rose to a high of 1.4344. While buyers in the GBP/USD were recently able to gain a good profit by the cable’s upward move, we now prepare for pullbacks that could send the pound back towards a test of the 1.4250/70-support. Bear in mind that the pair is in overbought territory, a situation that makes upcoming corrections more likely.

Today we will watch the U.K. employment report at 8:30 UTC which could have an impact on the pound.

The EUR/USD was accompanied by an upward tilt but the euro still refrained from taking out the 1.24-barrier. As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, we expect a higher resistance-zone to come in at 1.2430-50 but for now, a break above 1.24 must be done first. If the euro, however, formats a double-top below 1.24, bearish momentum may gather steam, driving the euro back towards 1.2350 and possibly even 1.23.

The German and Eurozone ZEW Surveys are scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC, but the impact on the euro could be short-lived.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Geopolitical Tensions Lead To Risk-Aversion In The Market

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Dear Traders,

Yesterday’s U.S. inflation data and March FOMC minutes took a backseat to geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Syria. U.S. President Trump warned Russia of incoming airstrikes on Syria for the Assad regime’s suspected use of chemical weapons. The prospect of U.S. military action against Syria have led to broad-based risk aversion in the market with Gold benefiting from its reputation as a safe-haven investment.

From a technical perspective there was nothing to gain for day traders in the Forex market with the U.S. CPI data and FOMC having only a limited impact on yesterday’s price action amidst the risk-off mode in the market.

As long as the risk of military conflict between Russia and the U.S. in Syria remains very high, we may see a lackluster price development in the market which provides little profitable trading opportunities.

Looking at the technical daily chart in both major currency pairs we see that near-term momentum is deep in overbought territory which is why we are looking for upcoming pullbacks.

EUR/USD: A drop below 1.2330 could open the door for accelerated bearish momentum towards 1.23 and 1.2250. However, given the overall uptrend buyers may swoop in at lower levels following a potential pullback. On the topside, the euro would need to take out the 1.24-hurdle to spark fresh bullish momentum towards 1.2430 and 1.2470.

Euro traders should keep an eye on the ECB minutes which are due for release today at 11:30 UTC.

GBP/USD: The pound refrained from stabilizing above 1.42 and dropped back towards 1.4160. We now expect a lower support zone to come in between 1.4120-1.4080. A current resistance is however seen at 1.4270.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

USD Receives Boost But Uptrend In EUR And GBP Remains Intact

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Dear Traders,

We finally saw some reversal in the FX market after consecutive days of strength in both euro and pound. The U.S. dollar received a boost from encouraging comments from U.S. President Trump, who used the ‘strong dollar’ language in order to soften previous comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin who seemed to avoid the strong dollar policy. The sharp reversal happened after euro and pound have surged to new highs.

The euro took out the 1.25-barrier and rose to a high of 1.2537 on the back of the Eurozone’s improving outlook. ECB President Draghi declined to say that the euro was too strong while his comments on growth were relatively bullish. He said that the euro’s strength was in part down to the regions improving outlook. In short, Draghi’s commentary was not enough to trigger a reversal in the euro’s uptrend. Thus, euro traders should generally expect further euro strength, anticipating higher targets in the EUR/USD at 1.2560 and 1.27.

The British pound was able to extend its gains towards 1.4350 before a sharp reversal occurred, sending the cable back below 1.42.

Today, traders will pay attention to the U.S. and U.K. 4Q GDP figures, which could affect the price action in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. We will watch the release of the U.K. GDP at 9:30 UTC. The U.S. GDP is scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC.

We wish you good trades and a nice weekend.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Euro And Cable Trend Higher And Higher And Now…Maybe Lower?

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Dear Traders,

There was nothing stopping the British pound from further rising against the U.S. dollar. While we still anticipate near-term corrections in the strong performance of the GBP/USD, we need to pay attention to the solid uptrend. The pound was able to stabilize above 1.40 and if it extends its gains above 1.4060 we could possibly see a run for 1.4170. On the bottom side, we expect some fresh support coming in at 1.3950. However, traders should bear in mind that corrections are inevitable following the strong performance of the recent days and weeks. One look at the weekly chart below is enough to realize that the cable approaches overbought territory and thus faces the risk of pullbacks.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar suffered another setback against its major counterparts. U.S. President Trump’s decision to put tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines may stoke protectionism and fears of trade wars.

The euro trended upwards, contrary to expectations, ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting. We still see the risk of profit-taking in the EUR/USD given the possibility of dovish comments from ECB President Draghi at tomorrow’s ECB’s press conference. For now, we expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.2380 and 1.2250.

Important economic data that could have an impact on today’s price action:

8:30 EUR German PMI Report

9:30 UK Labor Market Report

15:00 USA Existing Home Sales

(Time Zone UTC)

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Yen Serves As Safe Haven On Korea Worry; Euro And Pound Unmoved

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Dear Traders,

Nothing much has changed in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD while a holiday trade was clearly in effect on Tuesday. Other currencies, such as the yen were sought as a safer haven after North Korea said Tuesday it successfully test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, escalating tensions between North Korea and the U.S.

The political turmoil comes ahead of the G-20 summit in Hamburg this weekend. U.S. President Trump will attend the G-20 summit and is expected to hold his first meeting with Putin.

Today, market participants will focus on the Federal Reserve and its minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. Investors are looking for clues on the path for interest rates ahead of the U.S. jobs report due on Friday. With a number of market participants doubting the Fed rate hike plans, the FOMC meeting minutes could be an interesting event for traders.

The FOMC minutes are scheduled for release at 18:00 UTC.

The EUR/USD found some near-term support at 1.1335 but we expect a stronger support to be at 1.13. If the euro falls below 1.1280 we could see a slide towards 1.1220. Euro bulls should however focus on a renewed break above 1.14 in order to buy euros towards 1.15.

The GBP/USD refrained from dipping significantly below 1.29, at least for the time being. In order to sell pounds we will keep an eye on prices below 1.2880. Lower supports are seen at 1.2850 and 1.28. Buyers of the GBP/USD should either take advantage of corrections towards 1.2885 and 1.28 or wait for a breakout above 1.3030.

The U.K. PMI report is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and could have a short-term impact on the pound.

We wish you good trades for today!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Euro And Pound Remain In Narrow Trading Ranges

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Dear Traders,

Both euro and British pound ended the trading day slightly lower against the greenback but there is still no trace of any breakouts of the narrow trading ranges. The U.S. dollar received a boost from U.S. President Donald Trump’s pledge to announce a “phenomenal” plan on taxes within the next “two or three weeks”, but these comments were not enough to trigger a lasting bearish trend, at least not in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Rather, the price action in both currency pairs remained restricted to current support and resistance zones.

Amidst a thin-liquidity environment, the euro is still caught between 1.0715 and 1.0640 so there is nothing new to report.

The cable refrained from a direct test of 1.26 and reversed shy of 1.2585. With the 1.2475-support zone still being intact we focus now on a potential head-shoulders formation in short-term time frames. The pound may head for another test of 1.2550 before it is poised for a significant break below 1.2475/70. Let us be surprised.

And once again there are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. The only interesting reports, which may have a minor impact on the currencies, will be U.K.’s Industrial and Manufacturing Production at 9:30 UTC and University of Michigan Consumer Confidence at 15:00 UTC.

This week was characterized by low volatility and thus little chances for profitable moves. We hope for better trading opportunities and more profitable movements next week. Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Is In A State Of Limbo On Trump’s Policies

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Dear Traders,

The euro ended the day virtually unchanged against the U.S. dollar after it fell to a low of 1.0620. German inflation came in slightly below forecast, easing pressure on the European Central Bank to unwind its stimulus program. The greenback is however in a state of limbo as Donald Trump’s order on immigration overshadowed his promises to pursue pro-growth policies. Instead, the focus has been recently on trade and immigration. The dollar however, outperformed the pound sterling which fell towards 1.2465, providing a good profit for short traders. As the 1.2470/60-level is considered a major support we shall wait for prices below that support zone in order to sell sterling towards 1.2420. Around 1.2420 we may see some pullback before a potential break below 1.24 could send the pound towards 1.2250. A current resistance is however seen at 1.26.

EUR/USD

Head-Shoulders pattern could still be in play. Based on that pattern we expect a current resistance to be at around 1.0750. Thus, it could be rewarding to buy euros following a sustained break above 1.0750 while on the downside, the 1.0580-level remains in focus. It should be noted, that this pattern becomes void as soon as the euro breaks above 1.0770. Below 1.0580 we expect bearish momentum to accelerate.

Euro traders will watch the Eurozone Consumer Price report scheduled for release at 10:00 UTC, which could have an impact on the euro, provided that it exceeds expectations. Before that report, the German Unemployment report due at 8:55 UTC and ECB president Mario Draghi‘s speech at 8:00 may have a minor impact on the EUR/USD.

From the U.S. we only have Consumer Confidence scheduled for release at 15:00 UTC. Moreover, any action or word from Mr. Trump will dominate the markets.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Profitable Trading In A Politically Driven Market

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Dear Traders,

In summary, we can say that it has been a very profitable trading day in a politically driven market. While the Brexit and Trump themes are market-dominating there is only one thing that matters to traders: The profit at the end of the trading day and yesterday’s profit was quite good. Sterling traders were able to generate a profit of 100 pips by our long entry and also euro traders did not go home empty-handed, pocketing a good gain by trading twice yesterday’s long entry.

What happened in the market? Two things came together. Firstly, the U.S. dollar has lost some of its strength after Donald Trump said that the dollar is already ‘too strong’, posing a challenge to the economy. This prompted investors to take profits on their long dollar positions.  Secondly, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has calmed the markets as a ‘hard’ Brexit may not be as hard as expected. While she said that the U.K. “cannot possibly” remain within the European single market, pursuing a hard Brexit, May confirmed that the final deal would be put to the vote in Parliament. The fact that the parliament will approve the final Brexit deal is positive for sterling due to hopes that the deal must be good in order for the parliament to approve it.

GBP/USD

The pound climbed to a high of 1.2415 following May’s speech. True to the motto “The trend is your friend”, there are chances that the pound may extend its recent gains to 1.25 provided that sterling is able to take the hurdle at 1.2430. However, after such a strong price movement we also anticipate corrections. A next support is now seen at 1.23. If the pound falls back below 1.2270 we expect a lower support to be at 1.22.

The U.K Labor Market report is scheduled for release today at 9:30 UTC and if wages confirm a steady growth, sterling bulls might push the cable to higher levels.

EUR/USD

The euro formatted a recent uptrend channel and based on that channel, further gains may be limited to the upper trend line at 1.0730. We expect a next resistance area to be at 1.0750 whereas a current support is seen at 1.06.

Eurozone Consumer Prices are scheduled for release at 10:00 UTC today but we do not expect this report to have a significant impact on the euro.

The most important piece of economic data will be the U.S. Consumer Price report due for release at 13:30 UTC. In case the report comes in with an upside surprise the dollar will regain some strength.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Fed December Rate Hike Has Been Almost Completely Priced In; Time For A Correction?

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Dear Traders,

After the dust settled around the U.S. Presidential elections, market participants returned to business as usual while risk appetite has been boosted by the Trump reflation trade. The focus now shifts back to Federal Reserve rate hike in December, while there was some concern that a Trump victory would give the Fed reason to delay further tightening. Instead the U.S. dollar and U.S. yields are running higher amid speculation Trump’s plans to boost infrastructure spending will spur rate hikes as inflation and economic growth pick up. Fed rate hike odds are currently holding above 80 percent and economic data this week may further support the Fed’s hawkish bias.

Most attention will be paid to Tuesday’s economic calendar with Eurozone GDP data, U.K. Consumer Prices and U.S. Retail Sales due for release. On Thursday, U.S. Consumer Prices are worth watching followed by Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. CPI figures should be strong enough to keep the Fed on track to hike rates next month while Yellen is expected to maintain her bias towards higher rates. Last but not least, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at the Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt on Friday. The European Central Bank is expected to hold its course while analysts focus on a small alteration in the size and scope of the QE program in December rather than a rate cut.

Overall, economic conditions for the Eurozone remain stable and euro traders should bear in mind that the recent dip in EUR/USD can be attributed to the dollar’s rate expectations. Thus, the appetite for USD will continue to dominate the price action for the time being.The currency pair tested the support area around 1.0770 and it will now be interesting whether this support proves to be strong enough to withstand the downward pressure. If the euro drops below 1.0770 we expect further losses towards 1.07 and 1.0630. Near-term resistances are seen at 1.0850 and 1.0950.

The GBP/USD dropped back below 1.26 but the decline came to a halt slightly above 1.25. If the pound is able to climb back above 1.26, we expect further gains towards 1.2720. Sterling bears should however focus on a break below 1.2440, reinvigorating fresh bearish momentum towards 1.2350 and 1.2270. U.K. CPI data on Tuesday will receive most attention but Wednesday’s U.K. Employment Report may also be worth watching.

We wish you a good start to the new week and many profitable trades.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co