Posts
This Week To Set The Tone Until Year-End
Dear traders,
We welcome you to a crucial trading week that has a potential to set the tone for financial markets for the rest of the year.
The main event will be tomorrow’s U.S. election, with Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in polls. However, the senate may matter more for the markets than the President since a so-called “blue wave” (Democratic sweep) scenario is believed to be priced in and if Biden wins the presidency but his party does not gain enough seats in the Senate than we will have the worst scenario for the market.
In short, a divided government will be poison for the markets while a shift in control in the Senate (blue wave congress) could quickly pass a large stimulus plan, which is considered market friendly. But we bear in mind, that despite a Biden lead, Trump has a narrow but viable path to an election win, even though the surprise 2016 election result is less likely this time.
Given the fact that the coronavirus pandemic is driving record numbers of people to vote by mail and counting all votes could take days, or weeks we may need to wait longer than usual to learn who won the presidential race this year.
Whatever the outcome, we will prepare for swings on either side to get the best out of the market’s reaction.
While the U.S. election is front and center in the coming days, we also have the Bank of England and Federal Reserve meeting (Thursday) as well as the U.S. labor market report (Friday) on this week’s calendar.
The Bank of England is widely expected to add to its own bond-buying program as new coronavirus lockdowns put pressure on policy makers to act. The new lockdown in U.K. could also bolster talk of negative interest rates, which could weigh on the pound.
The Federal Reserve, which also meets this Thursday, has signaled that it’ll do what’s needed to keep borrowing costs contained.
This week will most likely be accompanied by a sharp rise in volatility, which is why traders should prepare for larger and sharper market movements.
We wish everyone good trades and hopefully a good profit!
We wish you good trades!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.
Follow us on social media:
GBP/USD: Prepare For Reversals
Dear Traders,
U.S. President Donald Trump accused China and Russia of devaluing their currencies with the consequence that investors refrained from buying dollars amid concerns about the U.S. policy. The dollar further weakened against the euro and pound.
The British pound was the best performing currency on Monday and rose to a high of 1.4344. While buyers in the GBP/USD were recently able to gain a good profit by the cable’s upward move, we now prepare for pullbacks that could send the pound back towards a test of the 1.4250/70-support. Bear in mind that the pair is in overbought territory, a situation that makes upcoming corrections more likely.
Today we will watch the U.K. employment report at 8:30 UTC which could have an impact on the pound.
The EUR/USD was accompanied by an upward tilt but the euro still refrained from taking out the 1.24-barrier. As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, we expect a higher resistance-zone to come in at 1.2430-50 but for now, a break above 1.24 must be done first. If the euro, however, formats a double-top below 1.24, bearish momentum may gather steam, driving the euro back towards 1.2350 and possibly even 1.23.
The German and Eurozone ZEW Surveys are scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC, but the impact on the euro could be short-lived.
Daily Forex Signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.
Geopolitical Tensions Lead To Risk-Aversion In The Market
Dear Traders,
Yesterday’s U.S. inflation data and March FOMC minutes took a backseat to geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Syria. U.S. President Trump warned Russia of incoming airstrikes on Syria for the Assad regime’s suspected use of chemical weapons. The prospect of U.S. military action against Syria have led to broad-based risk aversion in the market with Gold benefiting from its reputation as a safe-haven investment.
From a technical perspective there was nothing to gain for day traders in the Forex market with the U.S. CPI data and FOMC having only a limited impact on yesterday’s price action amidst the risk-off mode in the market.
As long as the risk of military conflict between Russia and the U.S. in Syria remains very high, we may see a lackluster price development in the market which provides little profitable trading opportunities.
Looking at the technical daily chart in both major currency pairs we see that near-term momentum is deep in overbought territory which is why we are looking for upcoming pullbacks.
EUR/USD: A drop below 1.2330 could open the door for accelerated bearish momentum towards 1.23 and 1.2250. However, given the overall uptrend buyers may swoop in at lower levels following a potential pullback. On the topside, the euro would need to take out the 1.24-hurdle to spark fresh bullish momentum towards 1.2430 and 1.2470.
Euro traders should keep an eye on the ECB minutes which are due for release today at 11:30 UTC.
GBP/USD: The pound refrained from stabilizing above 1.42 and dropped back towards 1.4160. We now expect a lower support zone to come in between 1.4120-1.4080. A current resistance is however seen at 1.4270.
Daily Forex Signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.
USD Receives Boost But Uptrend In EUR And GBP Remains Intact
Dear Traders,
We finally saw some reversal in the FX market after consecutive days of strength in both euro and pound. The U.S. dollar received a boost from encouraging comments from U.S. President Trump, who used the ‘strong dollar’ language in order to soften previous comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin who seemed to avoid the strong dollar policy. The sharp reversal happened after euro and pound have surged to new highs.
The euro took out the 1.25-barrier and rose to a high of 1.2537 on the back of the Eurozone’s improving outlook. ECB President Draghi declined to say that the euro was too strong while his comments on growth were relatively bullish. He said that the euro’s strength was in part down to the regions improving outlook. In short, Draghi’s commentary was not enough to trigger a reversal in the euro’s uptrend. Thus, euro traders should generally expect further euro strength, anticipating higher targets in the EUR/USD at 1.2560 and 1.27.
The British pound was able to extend its gains towards 1.4350 before a sharp reversal occurred, sending the cable back below 1.42.
Today, traders will pay attention to the U.S. and U.K. 4Q GDP figures, which could affect the price action in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. We will watch the release of the U.K. GDP at 9:30 UTC. The U.S. GDP is scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC.
We wish you good trades and a nice weekend.
Daily Forex Signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.
Euro And Cable Trend Higher And Higher And Now…Maybe Lower?
Dear Traders,
There was nothing stopping the British pound from further rising against the U.S. dollar. While we still anticipate near-term corrections in the strong performance of the GBP/USD, we need to pay attention to the solid uptrend. The pound was able to stabilize above 1.40 and if it extends its gains above 1.4060 we could possibly see a run for 1.4170. On the bottom side, we expect some fresh support coming in at 1.3950. However, traders should bear in mind that corrections are inevitable following the strong performance of the recent days and weeks. One look at the weekly chart below is enough to realize that the cable approaches overbought territory and thus faces the risk of pullbacks.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar suffered another setback against its major counterparts. U.S. President Trump’s decision to put tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines may stoke protectionism and fears of trade wars.
The euro trended upwards, contrary to expectations, ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting. We still see the risk of profit-taking in the EUR/USD given the possibility of dovish comments from ECB President Draghi at tomorrow’s ECB’s press conference. For now, we expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.2380 and 1.2250.
Important economic data that could have an impact on today’s price action:
8:30 EUR German PMI Report
9:30 UK Labor Market Report
15:00 USA Existing Home Sales
(Time Zone UTC)
Daily Forex Signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.
We are Maite & Marios Krausse, both born in Germany and trade full time in the Foreign Exchange Market (Forex) as independent traders.
Our teamwork began in 1998, when we got to know and love each other. 20 years later after having built our careers, our son was born, making us a happy family. Continue reading...
