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Trump’s Promises Are Not Enough To Lift The USD

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Dear Traders,

There is still nothing new to report at this time. No trend, no breakout and consequently no sustained profit. It is thus difficult for day traders to benefit from directionless market swings.

When will a breakout finally come? This is the key question amongst traders and the answer could lie in President Trump’s speech to the joint-session of Congress today. His speech could be a catalyst as long as he provides enough details about his purported stimulus plan. During a speech on Monday, Trump promised that “we’re going to start spending on infrastructure, big”, without giving any details but promises alone are not enough to put an end to the dollar’s lethargy. With no reassuring details the greenback could suffer further pullbacks. Either way, we will prepare for higher volatility during his speech and hope for some larger market moves.

Trump’s speech is set for today at 21:00 ET (Wednesday morning 2:00 a.m. UTC).

The euro rose against the greenback but gains were limited to a high of 1.0630. EUR/USD bulls shall now wait for a break above 1.0620 and 1.0660 whereas bears may profit from a downside break of 1.0520. If Trump delivers details on his spending plans, we could see the euro free-falling against the dollar.

The British pound initially dropped against the dollar on reports that PM Theresa May’s team is preparing for Scotland to potentially call for an independence referendum. However, the impact was short-lived and the pound ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the dollar. We still wait for a break below the important support at 1.2380 in order to sell sterling towards 1.2250. On the upside, the 1.2550/70 level remains a crucial resistance for sterling bulls.

Before Trump’s address to Congress, we will watch important economic data such as the U.S. GDP figures, due at 13:30 UTC, followed by Consumer Confidence at 15:00 UTC.

We wish you good trades!

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U.S. Dollar Regains Strength, Focus On GDP Data

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar regained some strength Thursday, leading to downturns in the euro and cable. The pound currently faces its support at 1.2550 and sterling bears may wait for breakouts below 1.2530 and 1.2490 to sell sterling towards 1.2450/1.24. For the pound to rally, it may need to climb through the 1.2610-level again.

The euro dropped significantly below 1.07 and our guess of upcoming bearish momentum following a head-shoulders pattern (stated in Wednesday’s analysis) was finally right. Now the euro will need to break below 1.0650 so that we can focus on lower targets at 1.0620 and 1.0590. Below 1.0580 however, bearish momentum could accelerate towards 1.05. Those who are looking for any further upside momentum should rather wait for prices above 1.0720 in order to buy euros. Above 1.0770 a higher target could be at 1.0815.

Today, all eyes will be on important U.S. data such as GDP figures and Durable Goods Orders, both reports are scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC. Fourth-quarter GDP numbers are forecast to show slower growth and if that forecast proves to be correct, we may see further weakness in the greenback.

We wish you good trades for today and a relaxing weekend.

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Is The U.S. Dollar Poised For A New Round Of Strength

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar regained some of its strength, pushing the euro and cable lower. While the euro stopped its fall slightly above 1.0560, the British pound turned out to be Monday’s worst performer and dropped towards 1.2385. British companies are increasingly pessimistic about the future outlook and with the Brexit debate intensifying, the pound remains vulnerable to larger losses. We currently see a higher likelihood of a bearish breakout in the GBP/USD but we recommend traders waiting for a break below 1.2350 in order to sell sterling.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned that Britain, rather than the Eurozone, would be the first to suffer from the consequences of a Brexit. When speaking at the European Parliament in Brussels on Monday he described a cocktail of political risks hanging over the global economy, including the Brexit vote, Donald Trump’s election and the looming Italian referendum. Draghi also signaled the ECB’s readiness to continue its monetary stimulus. At the ECB meeting next week, the central bank is widely expected to announce an extension of its bond-buying program.

EUR/USD – Interesting chart formation

While there are good arguments for both bulls and bears favoring one direction or another, it should be interesting in which direction the euro may be heading within the next days. Given the uncertainty ahead of the Italian referendum, the risk is to the downside but with investors staying on the sidelines in the run-up to the important vote on Sunday, the euro could also trade directionless sideways. For the time being, we expect the pair to range-trade between 1.0670 and 1.0570. Above 1.0670 it may head for a test of 1.0710, whereas a break below 1.0560 may invigorate fresh bearish momentum towards 1.0470.

chart_eur_usd_4hours_snapshot29-11-16

Important economic data for today:

13:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index

13:30 USA GDP Report

15:00 USA Consumer Confidence

(Time zone: UTC)

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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U.S. Dollar Whipsawed On FOMC

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Dear Traders,

Yesterday was none of our favorite trading days with the U.S. dollar showing a whipsaw performance after the FOMC statement failed to provide clear signals on potential tightening in June. One man’s joy is another man’s sorrow: The market’s response to the central bank’s statement has probably been the most positive scenario for the Fed, as policy makers want to avoid overreactions in the price development. For traders, however, it was rather a struggle against choppy swings and fake-outs. We therefore suffered losses instead of benefiting from the volatile fluctuations.

The statement came in somewhat more hawkish, showing that policy makers are less concerned about global risks but it did not provide any hints for a rate hike in June. The greenback whipsawed in response on the unconvincing statement. With still more than six weeks to go before the next Fed meeting in June the focus in the near-term will be on inflation and labor market data from the U.S.

Today, we have the German Unemployment report scheduled for release at 7:55 UTC, followed by the German Consumer Price at 12:00 UTC. If data disappoint the euro could weaken.

Furthermore, the U.S. first-quarter GDP report is due for release at 12:30 UTC and in case of any surprises, the USD may react strongly.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Chances For Breakouts Increase After Yesterday’s Consolidation

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Dear Traders,

Not much has happened on Thursday apart from several false break-outs that have led to a poor performance. It seemed that the currency market took a breather before establishing new trends. Both major currency pairs traded sideways within narrow ranges and strained trader’s nerves. Only this morning we saw a slight upward trend, driving the euro toward 1.1070 and the cable above 1.40. Currently we are looking for break-outs above 1.1080 in the EUR/USD and above 1.4020 in the GBP/USD.

Nevertheless, euro traders should be cautious with bullish engagements below 1.11/1.1120 as the euro is likely to come under pressure ahead of the next European Central Bank meeting in March considering the ECB’s easing bias. Bullish momentum could thus be limited until 1.1150. Before heading towards the 1.11-level a small hurdle could be at 1.1092. On the bottom side the 1.10-level remains in focus.

The GBP/USD trades currently around the 1.40-level. If the pair is able to break above 1.4020/35 we may see a relief rally towards 1.4085 and 1.4120. A current support could be at 1.3920 and sterling bears should wait for a significant break below 1.39/1.3880 in order to sell GBP toward lower targets.

The performance of the U.S. dollar will mainly hinge on important economic data, such as GDP reports, scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT as well as spending figures and PCE indices, due at 15:00 GMT. In case of any surprises we could see strong fluctuations in the greenback.

Euro traders should keep an eye on German Consumer Prices scheduled for release at 13:00 GMT.

We wish you profitable trades and a beautiful weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will FOMC Statement Pose A Risk To Dollar Bulls?

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Dear Traders,

The biggest story Friday was the sharp rise in the GBP/USD. After hitting a fresh five-year low at 1.4079 on Thursday, the currency pair rallied towards 1.4365 despite Friday’s weaker-than expected retail sales report. The rise can be attributed to the result of profit-taking after the recent linear decline in the British pound. The cable now faces the 1.4250/30 support-area once again but as long as the pair remains trading above that zone we expect some possible upward swings which may occur in the near-term (see technical analysis below).

The most important piece of U.K. economic data will be Gross Domestic Product, scheduled for release on Thursday and if data disappoints to the downside, sterling could be vulnerable to further losses again. On Tuesday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney appears in Parliament to speak on financial-stability risks and a major topic could be the U.K. referendum on its membership in the EU and a potential “Brexit“.

The EUR/USD trended slightly lower, moving around the 1.08 support level. For the time being, we anticipate the 1.0770-level to be the next support before a renewed downswing toward 1.0730/15. On the upper side, we see current resistance-levels at 1.0835 and 1.0860.

The most important piece of Eurozone data this week will be the German IFO report, due for release at 9:00 GMT today. If IFO numbers fall short of expectations, the euro could tumble toward lower targets. Furthermore, German Consumer Prices are scheduled for release on Thursday.

All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. While the central bank is not expected to alter its monetary policy and there will be no press conference, the statement could fail to add further strength to the U.S. dollar. Rather, the risk for the USD is to the downside, in case the FOMC statement turns out to be more dovish, suggesting a rate hike in March is less likely.

Further important U.S. economic reports are due for release with Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), Durable Goods Orders (Thursday) and U.S. Gross Domestic Product (Friday).

GBP/USD

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we see that there could be some upside room after a break of 1.4365. A next bullish target could be at 1.4420/45 with a possible extension until 1.4470. However a current support-zone is seen at 1.4250/30 and if the cable falls again below that level, we expect bearish momentum to accelerate towards 1.4170 and 1.4130.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot25.1.16

 

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Corrections In The USD Are Likely To Be Short-Lived

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Dear Traders,

The biggest story yesterday was the euro which rose against the U.S. dollar and traded well above 1.09. The reason for the correction can be attributed to positioning. Hedge funds reduced their dollar long positions on speculations the Federal Reserve will wait until at least April to raise interest rates again. However, we expect the dollar to resume its uptrend within the first months of the new year, but it might be difficult for dollar bulls to extend gains far beyond the 1.05-area in the EUR/USD. For the time being we expect the currency pair to remain range-bound between 1.0950/85 and 1.0810.

The British pound was accompanied by a slight bearish bias but remained firm above the 1.4875-area. In a next step, the pair will need to break the 1.4860-mark to the downside in order to gain further downward momentum. A reason for the GBP’s recent weakness is the Bank of England’s dovish monetary policy outlook. The BoE signaled the need for tighter policy is less immediate. Moreover, the U.K. Referendum on Britain’s European Union membership, which may take place as early as June, is weighing on the pound. The referendum could damp oversees investment into the U.K.. Consequently, the risk is to the downside. GBP may find a next support at around 1.4810/20. Below 1.4780 lower targets will be at 1.47, 1.4640 and 1.4590.

Today’s focus will be on U.S. data such as Personal Consumption, GDP revisions and Existing Home Sales. If data disappoints to the downside, we could see a slump in the USD.

9:30 UK Public Sector Borrowing

13:30 USA GDP & Personal Consumption

15:00 USA Existing Home Sales

(Timezone: GMT)

This is our last trading day of this year. We look forward to a successful year in 2016 and will continue to share many more profitable strategies with our subscribers.

We wish you all a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

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Yellen sends clear signal

/in /by

Dear Traders,

While the British Pound tortured traders with fake-outs and choppy moves, the euro was heading for a test of the 1.13-area. The short recovery in the EUR/USD was still driven by Mario Draghi’s comments, who said on Wednesday that ECB policy makers will wait before discussing on a QE extension. After failing at $ 1.13, dollar bulls took control and drove the pair back below $ 1.12.

The U.S. dollar received support from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen saying that the Fed is on track to raise rates this year. During her speech in Amherst, Massachusetts, she sent a clear signal, that Fed policy makers believe that a rate hike is appropriate this year, followed by a gradual pace of tightening thereafter.

What is important for today?

Revisions to second-quarter U.S. GDP (12:30 GMT), the U.S. PMI reports (13:45 GMT) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index (14:00 GMT) are the only second-tier data scheduled for release today.

If GDP figures meet the expectations, the impact on the dollar could be limited.

Given the hawkish outlook for the U.S. dollar in the near-term, we are generally looking for further gains in the USD.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Solution for Greece today?

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar recovered on an overall positive dollar sentiment. Hawkish comments from FOMC member Powell saying that a first rate hike could come as soon as September, with a second move to follow in December, led further support to the greenback. The market is now shifting again its focus more towards the Fed and a liftoff in September, preferring to be long U.S. dollars rather than euros.

The euro remained weak even as optimism grows that Greece will avert default. Despite the the fact that a deal appeared within reach, a main reason for the decline in the euro is, that the currency became attractive as a funding currency. Eurozone finance ministers will meet again today to try to reach a final agreement to unlock aid.

The pound sterling slid below 1.58 and found a current support slightly above the 1.57-level. The up-trend is still intact. A break above 1.5835 could revive sterling’s strength whereas a significant break below 1.57 could drive the pair towards 1.5630.

The German Ifo Business Climate which is due for release today at 8:00 GMT and later the final Q1 U.S. GDP reading scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, could be important reports to watch.

Euro-area finance minister’s talks will start today at 7 p.m. in Brussels.

Daily Forex signals:

 

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

EU Emergency Summit: Tough Monday?

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Dear Traders,

Last Friday turned out to be a quite uneventful trading day with both major pairs initially tending downwards but ending the day unchanged against the U.S. dollar.

The euro was supported by 1.13 ahead of today’s EU emergency summit in Brussels. The market is still expecting that in the eleventh hour an agreement between Greece and its creditors will be reached. The euro therefore trades on hopes and optimism about a defining solution. However, we should not underestimate the risk if Greece fails to pay the IMF the 1.5 billion euros which is due on June 30. The outcome of the Greek debt talks will determine how the euro trades the next days. The emergency summit starts at 12:30 local time in Brussels. If no agreement is made today, the next key event risk is the special summit planned for June 25-26.

Asides from Greek debt negotiations, there is a number of U.S. economic reports this week. The most important piece of data will be Durable Goods orders (Tuesday) and the revision to Q1 GDP (Wednesday).

The British Pound knows only one direction: Upwards. The GBP/USD rallied now 10 days without any major pullback. A next resistance is at 1.60 and further 1.6150. Below 1.5835 sterling may correct its recent gains down to 1.5750. There are no major U.K. economic reports scheduled for release this week so traders should focus on the demand for U.S. dollars.

Economic data today:

10:30 EUR Eurogroup Emergency Summit

14:00 USA Existing Home Sales

We wish you a good start to the week and many profitable trades.

 

 

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co