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Is U.S. Dollar Weakness Short-lived?

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The U.S. dollar weakened but its recent sell-off may be short-lived, provided that economic growth in the U.S. exceeds expectations.

The U.S. GDP report is due for release today at 12:30 GMT.

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Our trading ideas for today 25/4/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0725

Short @ 1.0670

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2510

Short @ 1.2415

 

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Wait-And-See-Mode

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Welcome to a new trading week. The focus this week will be on two significant economic data releases that could increase volatility in the U.S. dollar crosses. First will be the U.S. GDP for the first quarter (Thursday) and second the March’s core PCE data (Friday), the key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. Should both readings prove hotter-than-expected, traders could bet on the Fed maintaining higher interest rates for longer – a bullish outcome for the U.S. dollar.

Furthermore, geopolitical developments will play a major role and if there are signs of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East, the dollar could give up recent gains.

Risk management: We will start by a very low risk this week per trade since there are no major catalysts at the beginning of this week.

Let’s wait and see.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Focus on ECB Decision And U.S. Economic Growth

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Market participants are awaiting the European Central Bank decision today as well as the U.S. GDP report which is likely to show a cooling recovery.

Today’s decision has been flagged only as a stepping stone toward a far more crucial ECB decision in December. Recently, rate-hike bets have kept surging in the market and ECB officials step in to calm down rate hike repricing. Chief Economists Philip Lane warned financial markets that they are wrong to anticipate a rate hike as early as at the end of next year.

The central bank relies on its non-standard tools to support the euro area and ECB President Christine Lagarde could remind the market that the ECB is serious enough about their forward guidance amid an unlikely persisting high-inflation scenario.

The euro may face headwinds if the ECB sticks to the same script as the one at the September meeting while no large currency moves are expected. In turn, if Lagarde hints on the ECB exit strategy, we may get some kind of bullish reaction in the EUR/USD.

However, as for profitable currency movements, we do not expect today’s meeting to serve as a major driver in the market.

 EUR/USD: Technically, we see a next support zone between 1.1570-60 which could limit losses. On the upside we would wait for a rise above 1.1630 in order to anticipate a leg up towards 1.1665 and possibly a run for 1.1720.

We wish you good trades!

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Preparing For Potential Short Squeeze

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Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue to tread water but traders are on the starting blocks, waiting for bigger movements by tomorrow.

While the U.S. dollar was relatively firm and could further strengthen if the Federal Reserve assures, they are ready to taper stimulus, we also prepare for a potential short squeeze in case of any disappointment.

EUR/USD

The pair marked a short-term resistance at around 1.1775. Above 1.1780, we see a next target at 1.1815 (orange rectangle). Breaking above 1.1860 could see a test of 1.1890 and possibly even a run for 1.1940. Dollar bulls will wait for a renewed break below 1.1725 and more importantly 1.17 in order to push the pair lower towards the crucial 1.16-support.

GBP/USD

The pair rebounded and as long as it holds stable above 1.3650-20, we pencil in higher targets at 1.3830 and 1.39 (orange rectangle resistance zones). An upside break of 1.3910 could spur bullish action towards 1.40. Breaking, however, below 1.36 could result in a sell-off towards 1.34.

Traders will watch the U.S. GDP report today at 12:30 UTC.

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals

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No Big Movements For Traders

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The FOMC statement came in with a somewhat hawkish tone, stating that policymakers are closer to tapering. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, however, depressed the U.S. dollar in the aftermath of the statement as he said that there was still some way to go. While no decision on taper timing had been made, Powell said officials “expect further progress” but they are “clearly a ways away” from liftoff. Economists now expect that a reduction in asset purchases (taper) will not happen until early 2022.

The next gathering of the FOMC is September 21-22 but before that, Powell will speak at the August 26-28 conference in Jackson Hole. Fed chairs have sometimes used the venue to signal policy shifts.

As for day trades there was nothing to gain yesterday with momentum in the Forex market still lacking. We therefore recommend traders staying on the sidelines during these low-liquidity periods, taking a break from the markets and adjusting risk exposure. Better trading conditions will come after the summer doldrums.

Traders will watch the U.S. GDP data today at 12:30 UTC but chances of big market moves are small.

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www.maimar.co

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Quiet Trading: Waiting For Larger Fluctuations

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The U.S. GDP expanded at a 6.4 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, supporting the Fed’s strong assessment of the economy. In addition, President Joe Biden’s proposal of two additional spending plans would infuse trillions more dollars into the U.S. economy over the next decade. The U.S. dollar, however, ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged against its peers.

The DAX turned negative after failing to overcome the 15340-mark and slid below 15100. As long as the crucial 15000-support holds, we will keep an eye on the index’s recent sideways trend but if it breaks below 14950, traders should expect further losses.

The technical picture in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD has not changed since yesterday and it remains to be seen whether the support levels at 1.21 and 1.38 will hold.

Have a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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U.S. Dollar Under Pressure Post-FOMC, Focus Turns To U.S. GDP

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The Federal Reserve offered, as expected, no fresh cues and said it will continue with asset purchases. The U.S. dollar started to weaken ahead of the Fed’s statement and accelerated its slide at the central bank’s virtual press conference. However, worries about earlier-than-expected tightening appeared to ease, which could be an early signal of the Fed’s hawkish shift.

Technically, we saw both FX pairs rising on the back of a weakening U.S dollar which was to be expected since there were no surprises from the Fed.

GBP/USD

As long as the pair holds above 1.38, the outlook remains bullish with the focus on the 1.40-reisstance. In case of a bullish breakout above 1.4020 we expect further gains towards 1.4150 and 1.42. Based on the current uptrend channel a higher support is now seen at 1.39.

EUR/USD

The euro was able to stabilize above 1.21 and as long as this crucial barrier holds, we see chances of further gains towards 1.22. But be careful: Given the straight-lined uptrend, the pair is in overbought territory and buyers may seek to take profits around 1.2180, so be aware of corrections. If the euro falls back below 1.2050, we could see a deeper correction towards 1.20.

DAX

The index’s price chart looks boring since there were no major fluctuations. Consequently, the current sideways range between 15400 and 15000 remains intact. A break above 15370 could open the door for a leg up towards 15450 and possibly even a renewed test of the high at 15500. Below 15140, we could see a test of the 15000-support.

Traders will watch the U.S. GDP figures today at 12:30 UTC, that could strengthen the greenback in the short-term, provided the reading will not fail to impress.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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ECB Meeting Unlikely To Move Euro Exchange Rate

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Dear Traders,

It’s decision day at the European Central Bank today but whether this event risk carries much weight will depend on ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments at the ECB press conference. Traders are looking for hints on when interest rates will begin to rise but ECB policy makers suggested earlier that a rate hike won’t come at least until the end of summer 2019. If there is no change in guidance, the euro could give up some of its recent gains.

General speaking, it seems unlikely that Draghi intents to move the single currency at today’s meeting, so watch out for range-bound price action.

As for the dollar, the most interesting piece of data will be released tomorrow with the U.S. 2Q GDP.

EUR/USD: The next hurdle is now seen at 1.1750 before we turn our focus to the crucial resistance area between 1.18-1.1850. Looking however at larger time frames, the currency pair remains trading sideways between 1.1850 and 1.15.

 

Summer trading break: We are slowly preparing for our summer holiday break which means that we are reducing risk exposure while adopting a cautious approach.

Announcement: Shortly after the summer break our Chief Currency Strategist will commence her maternity leave, which is why daily analysis and signals will be paused until the end of her period of maternity leave.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Risk Aversion Leads To EUR And GBP Sell-Off

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Dear Traders,

The fragility of the European Union is back in the spotlight and there seems to be nothing that could stop the euro from falling. The euro broke below crucial support levels against the U.S. dollar and fell to the weakest level in ten months. Whether the euro will extend its tailspin towards 1.1420 or even 1.1350 remains to be seen and hinges on the risk aversion in the market. As soon as risk aversion gives way to a greater risk appetite, the euro may find the strength to recover some of its losses.

The same applied to the British pound, which fell victim to increased risk aversion in the market and dropped towards $1.32. As long as the cable remains below 1.33 we focus on a lower target at 1.3180/70. On the topside, we see a current resistance at 1.3350. For sterling bears, Tuesday has been a very profitable trading day with our short signal providing twice a good profit.

The focus now turns to U.S. data such as the GDP report, scheduled for release today at 12:30 UTC. Greater attention, however, will be paid to the U.S. NFP report Friday. Today’s ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC) could provide a foretaste of what to expect on Friday.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Nothing New From The ECB, Focus Now On U.S. GDP Numbers

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Dear Traders,

The ECB meeting is behind us but we had hoped for some larger market moves yesterday with a bit more follow-through after the euro’s technical break below 1.2150. The reason why the ECB statement turned out to be less market-moving this time is obvious: The central bank made absolutely zero changes to its policy statement in comparison with the March meeting, keeping to its commitment to bond-buying at a monthly 30 billion euros until at least September with interest rates on hold “well past” then.

ECB President Draghi talked primarily about their confidence in broad-based growth and that inflation will converge towards the ECB’s target over the medium term. He refrained from discussing monetary policy and the end of asset purchases.

In sum, despite Draghi’s upbeat tone the ECB statement revealed nothing fundamentally new. The next time the ECB releases a new set of Staff Economic Projections will be in June.

The euro dropped below 1.2150 but found a lower support at 1.2095 for the time being. The EUR/USD is still in deeply oversold territory, so traders should prepare for pullbacks. We expect a current resistance-zone to come in between 1.2160-80 but given the strong bearish bias the focus shifts to a next lower target around 1.2060/50.

Yesterday’s trading in the GBP/USD was not to our liking as the pound traded choppily between 1.40 and 1.39. As for sterling bulls, the way is clear with buyers waiting for an upside break above 1.40. On the bottom side, however, sterling bears will have to wait for a break below 1.3875 in order to anticipate further losses.

We will watch the U.K. GDP numbers at 8:30 UTC which could have a major impact on the cable’s price action.

From the U.S. we have the Q1 GDP numbers scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. The annualized growth rate is expected to register 2 percent down from 2.9 percent. If there is an upside surprise, the greenback could resume its rally and drive other major peers lower in return.

We wish you good trades for today and a nice weekend.

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co