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Further U.S. Dollar Gains Ahead?

We have entered the final quarter of the year and following last month when global stocks posted their worst performance since March 2020, the fourth quarter could be the most uncertain environment of 2021. One of the market’s main concerns is elevated inflation and after Friday’s PCE report for August came in higher-than-expected, markets could be increasing Federal Reserve rate hike bets.

This week, all eyes turn to the U.S. Nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Economists expect a job gain of 470k in September while hourly earnings are expected to come in hotter-than expected at 4.6 percent y/y from 4.3 percent prior. If these forecasts turn out to be correct, the U.S. dollar could further appreciate. A materially lower outcome could derail the Fed from its less-dovish policy path.

Before coming to Friday’s payrolls report, we will keep tabs on the technical picture.

EUR/USD

In short-term time frames we focus on the 1.1580-support on the downside and the 1.1620-resistance on the upside. If the euro drops below 1.1580, we anticipate further losses with a next bearish target at 1.15. If the euro, however, climbs above 1.1620 we could see a test of 1.1660.

GBP/USD: Remaining below 1.36 we expect further losses towards 1.3350.

DAX: Friday’s dip below the crucial 15000-mark proved short-lived – at least until today. As long as the index fluctuates below 15650, we favor bearish movements with a next lower target at 14900. A break below 14800 could generate an even stronger sell signal towards 14400. For a bullish breakout on the other side, we would need to see prices above 15650.

We wish you good trades!

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Will Payrolls Reignite The Dollar’s Strength?

Good morning traders, it’s payrolls day again.

The U.S. jobs report will shape expectations about when the Federal Reserve might start tapering its stimulus and when to expect a rate hike. Since this is a highly awaited event risk, we will prepare for bigger moves amid possibly extreme volatility.

We saw the U.S. dollar holding a drop ahead of today’s report and going into the release, the greater impact seems to come from a stronger reading that spurs bullish momentum in the dollar. Should the reading disappoint the forecast for a 750,000 jobs increase, the greenback will further depreciate.

Looking at the EUR/USD, however, even in case of a weaker payrolls number, the rise of the euro might be limited as the pair remains overbought with a correction overdue.

The GBP/USD broke above 1.3830 and next targets could be at 1.3860 and 1.3880 but it’s the same situation as the EUR/USD: Both pairs look overbought and thus, chances are in favor of a greater impact for USD strength in case of an upbeat NFP report.

We wish everyone good trades and a beautiful weekend.

 

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

 

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Will The U.S. Dollar Resume Its Rally This Week?

Anxiety about the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot eased and the market returned back to a sleepy sideways consolidation mode while volatility receded. The only market-moving event risk this week could be the June U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Economists expect that payrolls have risen by 700K in June after disappointing payrolls growth in April and May. However, while predictions in both previous months were also well above the actual figures, payrolls forecasts must be taken with a grain of salt. The lifting of pandemic-related restrictions in June, however, could have boosted new employment. This means that there could be more upside potential for the U.S. dollar in the run-up to the report.

EUR/USD: The pair stuck in a tight trading range between 1.1975 and 1.1910. Above 1.1980 we may see a test of 1.20 but with potential catalysts lacking, chances are in favor of fresh bearish momentum with the dollar may gaining traction ahead of Friday’s job report. A break below 1.1910 could reignite bearish momentum towards 1.1870 and 1.18.

GBP/USD: After the 1.40-level has proved as a resistance, the focus is on a break below the 1.38-support with a next lower target at around 1.3750.

DAX: Recently, the index didn’t see any significant movements within its uptrend channel. We continue to look at a price range between 15900 and 15400.

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We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Focus On BoE And NFP Report

The U.S. dollar ended the last week higher against the euro and British pound and while the dollar’s recent strength appeared to be month-end rebalancing flows, traders wonder whether the dollar could extend its gains this week. Greenback bulls could hope for further bullish potential as long as there is a rise in U.S. Treasury yields but we bear in mind that rising near-term inflation expectations could outpace gains in U.S. Treasury yields while a dovish Federal Reserve could limit gains in the dollar.

On Friday we will have April’s non-farm payrolls report scheduled for release and almost one million jobs are anticipated to be added. The unemployment rate is also expected to decline to 5.7 percent from 6 percent in the previous month. The focus will also be on average hourly earnings for further insight into inflationary pressures.

GBP/USD

It could be a volatile week for the British pound. The Bank of England is due for its monetary policy announcement on Thursday and a QE taper could be in the cards. On the same day Scotland holds parliamentary elections which could bring back expectations of another independence referendum. Sterling could come under pressure ahead of the election as a potential referendum remains a risk for the currency.

As for Thursday’s other risk event, the Bank of England is expected to upgrade its economic projections with a stronger Q2 GDP forecast and there is a chance that the BoE will announce a slight tapering of asset purchases.

Technically, chances are slightly in favor of the bears right now with the pair eyeing the 1.38-support. If the cable falls below 1.3770, we could see a test of the lower support around 1.37 and possibly even a fall towards 1.36. However, given the possibility of a BoE taper on Thursday, losses might be limited to the support zones.

EUR/USD

The euro gave up some of its recent gains and dipped towards its crucial support at 1.20. We expect a lower support area to be at around 1.1950 from where more buyers could swoop in. A current resistance is seen at 1.2130. If the euro falls below 1.1940, bearish momentum may accelerate towards 1.1850 and 1.18.

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Further U.S. Dollar Strength Ahead? Waiting For NFP Outcome

Dear Traders,

Bullish exposure seems to be fading ahead of the March U.S. employment report with bears gaining control of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. However, we are hesitant in our assessment of further dollar strength as we know that payrolls can catch traders on the wrong foot.

While U.S. job growth is expected to have slowed last month, the jobless rate was forecast to have fallen to 4.0 percent amid stronger wage growth. If the latter headline figure meets or even exceeds expectations it might be dollar-positive but traders should be careful. There is plenty of room for a surprise and volatile swings can make today’s trading difficult.

Sign-up for our professional day trading support if you want to know how we trade the NFP report.

The NFP Report is due at 12:30 UTC.

GBP/USD

The worst performing currency was the British pound which dropped below its crucial support at 1.40 and extended its slide towards 1.3965. As mentioned in previous analysis, our focus now shifts to a lower target of 1.3880, provided that the pound remains below 1.4050. A break above 1.4060, however, could encourage sterling bulls for a test of 1.41 but it all depends on the outcome of the payrolls.

EUR/USD: The euro dropped below 1.2235 and this pair seems to be heading towards 1.2190 now. A break below 1.2180 could spark bearish momentum towards 1.2150 and possibly even 1.2050 but that remains to be seen. The 1.23-level could act as a short-term resistance.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend!

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Quiet Trading On Easter Monday?

Dear Traders,

European markets are still closed on Monday for the Easter holiday, so trading could be relatively quiet at the beginning of this week.

The most important piece of economic data this week will be the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report on Friday. Today, we have the ISM Manufacturing Report scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC, which may spur some volatility in the market.

Both of our major currency pairs remained range-bound amidst a low-liquidity market environment.

EUR/USD: The euro may find some support around the 1.2250-level but if it drops below 1.2240 it may extend its slide towards 1.2190. On the top-side we see a current resistance at around 1.2480.

GBP/USD: The pound still holds above 1.40 but for how long? If that crucial barrier is significantly breached to the downside, we anticipate lower targets around 1.3880. A climb above 1.4080 may spur some bullish momentum in the market.

We wish you a good start to the new week.

 

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Will Payrolls Lead To Further Losses In EUR/USD And GBP/USD?

Dear Traders,

The ECB’s policy decision came as a surprise for many market participants as policymakers decided to change their guidance by dropping a pledge to increase QE if needed. This tiny step to policy normalization shows confidence in the durability of euro-area growth. The euro initially rose on that hawkish bias but it was ECB President Draghi’s comments at the press conference that send the euro tumbling.

For euro bulls it should have been no surprise that the euro sharply reversed after another test of 1.2450 failed to provide a breakout. Rather, bearish momentum accelerated after the euro dropped below 1.2380 for a second time with the focus now turning to the 1.2280-support level.

The reason for the euro’s decline was that Mario Draghi gave a rather dovish speech saying that he sees interest rates at their present levels well beyond the end of QE. This dovish tone was all traders needed to sell euros toward lower levels.

The British pound was hurt by news from U.K. officials saying that they see “no Brexit deal until next year”. The pound fell toward a low of 1.3780 and currently struggles to hold above 1.38. If it falls below 1.3750 we will focus on lower targets at 1.3710 and 1.3610. A current resistance is however seen at 1.3890.

From the U.K. we have Manufacturing Production figures scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC but this report should take a backseat to the U.S. Nonfarm-payrolls report due at 13:30 UTC, which will receive more attention.

Heading into today’s NFP release, current expectations for the data are modest, with the unemployment rate expected to drop to 4.0 percent and the headline jobs figure to come in at 205K. The focus will also be on average hourly earnings.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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U.S. Dollar Weaker Ahead Of NFP Report

Dear Traders,

The euro extended its gains and headed towards 1.21 on the back of a weakening U.S. dollar. Our long entry has thus proved profitable. As stated in our yesterday’s analysis, we now expect the EUR/USD to test the 1.2130/50 area. A current support is however seen at the 1.20-barrier.

The British advanced against the greenback after the 1.35-support proved intact. We now expect a next resistance to come in at around 1.3650/60. If the pound, however, falls back below 1.3490, it may extend its slide towards 1.3450.

Today’s focus will turn to the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC. The jobs report is projected to show 190K jobs in December while yesterday’s ADP report exceeded expectations, signaling continued momentum in the U.S. economy.

We wish you a nice weekend.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Will Payrolls Hurt Or Help The U.S. Dollar?

Dear Traders,

It’s payrolls day and the euro already started to show some bullish price action ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. jobs report. In our analysis of Thursday we highlighted the chance of a bullish continuation in the EUR/USD and this is precisely what has happened yesterday. The euro was Thursday’s best performer and rose toward 1.1425 on speculation the European Central bank is slowly starting to prepare the market for stimulus tapering.

All eyes now turn to the NFP report which is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. While the ADP report fell short of expectations, there is a risk that also NFP data miss and this would be poison for the U.S. dollar. The jobs report is expected to show 178K workers in June while wage growth is expected to have strengthened. If the headlines figures exceed expectations we could see the greenback strengthening but we bear in mind that any disappointment will have a greater impact on the market.

As usual, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenario but recommend not investing too much – at least ahead of the payrolls report. If you want to know how to trade the payrolls report and how to adjust your money management, sign up for our signal service here.

We wish you profitable trades and a relaxing weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Traders Prepare For Weaker Payrolls – Are They Right?

Dear Traders,

It’s payrolls day and the dollar is clearly tending toward weakness ahead of the first relevant event of the year. Yesterday’s employment data came in mixed with private-sector payroll growth slowing in December while the non-manufacturing ISM index was in line with expectations. Many market participants expect the December employment figures to be weaker, putting the greenback under further selling pressure in the run up to the report. Even if this assumption is correct, wage growth will take center stage in today’s job report. After disappointing November figures average hourly earnings are expected to tick up to 0.3 percent and it is precisely this or a stronger uptick that is needed to put the dollar back in the bullish track. If, however, all key figures of the report disappoint, the greenback will suffer further losses. Let’s wait and see.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report is scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC today.

The euro took a glimpse at the upper side of 1.06 but was not able to hold onto that high level. It will now hinge on the jobs report whether there is still room for further gains toward 1.0650/70. On the downside, traders should keep an eye on the 1.0480-support level. Below 1.0480 we expect the euro to fall back toward the 1.04-mark.

The British pound rose above 1.24 but fell back into its former 1.2350-90-resistance area, which now could prove as a new support for the pound. Below 1.2350 we see a lower bound at around 1.2320. If the pound declines below 1.2270 we expect the bias to shift from bullish to bearish. Above 1.2440, however, we may see a continuation of the upward move, heading for 1.25 and 1.2550. But the price action will depend on the outcome of the payrolls.

We wish you a beautiful and relaxing weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co