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Further U.S. Dollar Strength Ahead? Waiting For NFP Outcome

Dear Traders,

Bullish exposure seems to be fading ahead of the March U.S. employment report with bears gaining control of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. However, we are hesitant in our assessment of further dollar strength as we know that payrolls can catch traders on the wrong foot.

While U.S. job growth is expected to have slowed last month, the jobless rate was forecast to have fallen to 4.0 percent amid stronger wage growth. If the latter headline figure meets or even exceeds expectations it might be dollar-positive but traders should be careful. There is plenty of room for a surprise and volatile swings can make today’s trading difficult.

Sign-up for our professional day trading support if you want to know how we trade the NFP report.

The NFP Report is due at 12:30 UTC.

GBP/USD

The worst performing currency was the British pound which dropped below its crucial support at 1.40 and extended its slide towards 1.3965. As mentioned in previous analysis, our focus now shifts to a lower target of 1.3880, provided that the pound remains below 1.4050. A break above 1.4060, however, could encourage sterling bulls for a test of 1.41 but it all depends on the outcome of the payrolls.

EUR/USD: The euro dropped below 1.2235 and this pair seems to be heading towards 1.2190 now. A break below 1.2180 could spark bearish momentum towards 1.2150 and possibly even 1.2050 but that remains to be seen. The 1.23-level could act as a short-term resistance.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend!

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Quiet Trading On Easter Monday?

Dear Traders,

European markets are still closed on Monday for the Easter holiday, so trading could be relatively quiet at the beginning of this week.

The most important piece of economic data this week will be the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report on Friday. Today, we have the ISM Manufacturing Report scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC, which may spur some volatility in the market.

Both of our major currency pairs remained range-bound amidst a low-liquidity market environment.

EUR/USD: The euro may find some support around the 1.2250-level but if it drops below 1.2240 it may extend its slide towards 1.2190. On the top-side we see a current resistance at around 1.2480.

GBP/USD: The pound still holds above 1.40 but for how long? If that crucial barrier is significantly breached to the downside, we anticipate lower targets around 1.3880. A climb above 1.4080 may spur some bullish momentum in the market.

We wish you a good start to the new week.

 

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Will Payrolls Lead To Further Losses In EUR/USD And GBP/USD?

Dear Traders,

The ECB’s policy decision came as a surprise for many market participants as policymakers decided to change their guidance by dropping a pledge to increase QE if needed. This tiny step to policy normalization shows confidence in the durability of euro-area growth. The euro initially rose on that hawkish bias but it was ECB President Draghi’s comments at the press conference that send the euro tumbling.

For euro bulls it should have been no surprise that the euro sharply reversed after another test of 1.2450 failed to provide a breakout. Rather, bearish momentum accelerated after the euro dropped below 1.2380 for a second time with the focus now turning to the 1.2280-support level.

The reason for the euro’s decline was that Mario Draghi gave a rather dovish speech saying that he sees interest rates at their present levels well beyond the end of QE. This dovish tone was all traders needed to sell euros toward lower levels.

The British pound was hurt by news from U.K. officials saying that they see “no Brexit deal until next year”. The pound fell toward a low of 1.3780 and currently struggles to hold above 1.38. If it falls below 1.3750 we will focus on lower targets at 1.3710 and 1.3610. A current resistance is however seen at 1.3890.

From the U.K. we have Manufacturing Production figures scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC but this report should take a backseat to the U.S. Nonfarm-payrolls report due at 13:30 UTC, which will receive more attention.

Heading into today’s NFP release, current expectations for the data are modest, with the unemployment rate expected to drop to 4.0 percent and the headline jobs figure to come in at 205K. The focus will also be on average hourly earnings.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

U.S. Dollar Weaker Ahead Of NFP Report

Dear Traders,

The euro extended its gains and headed towards 1.21 on the back of a weakening U.S. dollar. Our long entry has thus proved profitable. As stated in our yesterday’s analysis, we now expect the EUR/USD to test the 1.2130/50 area. A current support is however seen at the 1.20-barrier.

The British advanced against the greenback after the 1.35-support proved intact. We now expect a next resistance to come in at around 1.3650/60. If the pound, however, falls back below 1.3490, it may extend its slide towards 1.3450.

Today’s focus will turn to the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC. The jobs report is projected to show 190K jobs in December while yesterday’s ADP report exceeded expectations, signaling continued momentum in the U.S. economy.

We wish you a nice weekend.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Will Payrolls Hurt Or Help The U.S. Dollar?

Dear Traders,

It’s payrolls day and the euro already started to show some bullish price action ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. jobs report. In our analysis of Thursday we highlighted the chance of a bullish continuation in the EUR/USD and this is precisely what has happened yesterday. The euro was Thursday’s best performer and rose toward 1.1425 on speculation the European Central bank is slowly starting to prepare the market for stimulus tapering.

All eyes now turn to the NFP report which is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. While the ADP report fell short of expectations, there is a risk that also NFP data miss and this would be poison for the U.S. dollar. The jobs report is expected to show 178K workers in June while wage growth is expected to have strengthened. If the headlines figures exceed expectations we could see the greenback strengthening but we bear in mind that any disappointment will have a greater impact on the market.

As usual, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenario but recommend not investing too much – at least ahead of the payrolls report. If you want to know how to trade the payrolls report and how to adjust your money management, sign up for our signal service here.

We wish you profitable trades and a relaxing weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Traders Prepare For Weaker Payrolls – Are They Right?

Dear Traders,

It’s payrolls day and the dollar is clearly tending toward weakness ahead of the first relevant event of the year. Yesterday’s employment data came in mixed with private-sector payroll growth slowing in December while the non-manufacturing ISM index was in line with expectations. Many market participants expect the December employment figures to be weaker, putting the greenback under further selling pressure in the run up to the report. Even if this assumption is correct, wage growth will take center stage in today’s job report. After disappointing November figures average hourly earnings are expected to tick up to 0.3 percent and it is precisely this or a stronger uptick that is needed to put the dollar back in the bullish track. If, however, all key figures of the report disappoint, the greenback will suffer further losses. Let’s wait and see.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report is scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC today.

The euro took a glimpse at the upper side of 1.06 but was not able to hold onto that high level. It will now hinge on the jobs report whether there is still room for further gains toward 1.0650/70. On the downside, traders should keep an eye on the 1.0480-support level. Below 1.0480 we expect the euro to fall back toward the 1.04-mark.

The British pound rose above 1.24 but fell back into its former 1.2350-90-resistance area, which now could prove as a new support for the pound. Below 1.2350 we see a lower bound at around 1.2320. If the pound declines below 1.2270 we expect the bias to shift from bullish to bearish. Above 1.2440, however, we may see a continuation of the upward move, heading for 1.25 and 1.2550. But the price action will depend on the outcome of the payrolls.

We wish you a beautiful and relaxing weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Payrolls To Take Back Seat To Election Uncertainty

Dear Traders,

It is payrolls-day again but this time, U.S. employment data is however not the market’s main concern. Market participants are bracing for election volatility and severe turbulence with only few days to go before the Nov. 8 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Traders are adjusting dollar positions to avoid risks ahead of the historical U.S. vote. The market became more nervous since Clinton’s lead over Trump has shrunk in the past days while a Trump victory has not yet been priced in. The dollar recently weakened against its counterparts in the light of that increasing uncertainty about the outcome.

Economists are looking for U.S. nonfarm payrolls to climb by 175k last month whereas a healthy report would reinforce the assumption that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month. If the report falls however short of expectations, the greenback could face another round of weakness. The payrolls report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

Technically, the euro finds itself in a current trading range between 1.1125 and 1.1050. Looking at the daily chart we see that the downward channel is still unbroken, which could predict upcoming bearish momentum in the EUR/USD. As long as the euro remains below 1.1150 we see a higher likelihood for a downward movement.

chart_eur_usd_daily_snapshot4-11-16

However, we do not expect today’s NFP report to change the sentiment in the euro as big market players remain risk-averse ahead of next Tuesday/Wednesday – and that’s what we are doing.

The GBP/USD broke above the falling trend line of its recent downward channel and further gains might be possible but let’s be surprised and prepare for both bullish and bearish scenario. A new support could be at 1.2340 whereas a next major resistance is only seen around 1.2670.

chart_gbp_usd_4hours_snapshot4-11-16

Have a nice weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Payrolls Report To Determine Direction

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar suffered a significant correction after the ISM Manufacturing index showed an unexpected contraction in August, raising doubts about global growth optimism. The British pound started to rise against the greenback in the wake of an unexpected strong U.K. manufacturing PMI, showing signs of expansion in the U.K. after the Brexit vote. Even though our buy order in the GBP/USD was triggered slightly later due to high slippage around the release time of the U.K. data, we were able to get a piece of the pie and secure some profit.

The euro flirted with the 1.12-level on the back of a weakening dollar and it will be interesting to see whether the euro is able to hold onto its higher price level going into the highly anticipated U.S. jobs report. Economists predict job growth will slow to 180k in August from 255k in July. While traders are waiting for the payrolls to determine the direction in the market, there is a risk that the outcome could disappoint the market’s high expectations. However, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenarios but advise traders to trade the payrolls report with caution.

The U.S. Jobs Report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. Sterling traders should also keep an eye on the U.K. Construction PMI due at 8:30 UTC.

We wish you profitable trades and a wonderful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

All Eyes On U.S. Payroll Report

Dear Traders,

The biggest story in the markets yesterday was the British pound which dropped like a stone after the Bank of England unleashed a stimulus package to combat the post-Brexit fallout. All MPC policy makers have unanimously decided to cut interest rates for the first time in seven years while further rate cuts may follow later this year if the economic outlook proves to remain grim. BoE Governor Carney said in his statement that the central bank “took these steps because the economic has changed markedly”, declaring that all elements of the stimulus can be taken further, including another rate cut. Furthermore, the BoE cut its growth forecast for 2017 to 0.8 percent from 2.3 percent (the most ever) and lowered its 2018 predictions. All this was enough for sterling bears to drive the pound lower towards 1.31. A next support area could now be at 1.3085-1.3065. Once the 1.3060-level gives way to the downward pressure, we could see sterling falling towards 1.30.

The euro remained largely unchanged against the U.S. dollar and traded comfortably between 1.1150 and 1.1115. We were a bit unlucky with our short-entry at the lower bound of the euro’s trading range which was exactly triggered before the price reversed. We now focus on a break below 1.11 before shifting the attention to the 1.1050-support. Euro bears should rather wait for prices below 1.1050 in order to sell the euro towards lower levels. However, above 1.1190 the euro may head for another test of 1.1230. A current resistance is seen at 1.1275.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot5.8.16

Today it’s payrolls-day again and all eyes will be on the highly anticipated U.S. labor market report at 12:30 UTC. The monthly jobs report will provide more information on whether the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates in 2016. The report is expected to show a slower job growth in July after the strong increase in June but this does not necessarily mean that dollar bulls have no chance this month. Market participants will also pay close attention to the unemployment rate and wage growth figures and if these headlines come in with a positive surprise the dollar will rally. In case of any disappointments however, the greenback might be vulnerable to losses.

We wish good trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Volatile Swings Expected Throughout The Entire Week

Dear Traders,

We welcome you to the trading month of August. While markets are usually quieter during this summer month, the first week of August might be different this year as we have big market movers ahead of us. Before the highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, due for release on Friday, traders will scrutinize the ISM Manufacturing (Monday) and ISM Non-Manufacturing index (Wednesday). Apart from these market-moving reports, sterling traders prepare for a volatile week as the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates and add stimulus to stem a potential fallout from Brexit. Analysts predict an aggressive action from the BoE, which could increase the pressure on the British pound. The BoE will announce its rate decision alongside the release of its Quarterly Inflation Report on Thursday. While the overall bias remains bearish for the pound, traders should prepare for volatile swings ahead of “Super-Thursday”. The sentiment only changes from bearish to bullish in case of a sustained break above the resistance area at 1.3485/1.35. On the other side however, if sterling is not able to break below 1.30 in order to reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum, we expect the current sideways trend to continue.

The U.S. dollar weakened against its counterparts after the U.S. GDP expanded at less than half the rate economists had forecast. The weak domestic data led to speculation the Federal Reserve may push back a rate increase to 2017. The focus therefore shifts to the U.S. labor market report this week and it would need an ambiguous strong report to help the dollar.

EUR/USD

The euro rallied towards 1.12 on the back of dollar weakness and broke above a secondary downward channel while it is now facing the higher resistance line of its primary downward channel at around 1.13. Gains might be limited until that level, whereas the 1.11-level could lend a short-term support to the euro.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot1.8.16

Important economic data for today:

7:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI

8:30 UK Manufacturing PMI

14:00 USA ISM Manufacturing

(Time zone: UTC)

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co