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Recession Fears

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We have made a pit stop after another high-profitable trading month came to a close. Our trading performance in March stands at a 689-pips gain and is particularly a result of the heightened volatility in the market following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As for the war in Ukraine, there remains risk of a sudden course change that can hit the market hard, but for now, risk appetite plays a major role in current market trends. Nonetheless traders should bear in mind that implications for higher energy and grains commodity prices and the resulting recession risk are an increasingly real threat to the markets – maybe not today but perhaps in a few months.

EUR/USD – Heading back south

After the euro’s flight to a high of 1.1185, the currency pair headed back south and we now wait for the 1.0985-support area to get tested. Below 1.0940, we anticipate further losses towards 1.0885. Bulls on the other side will keep tabs on renewed price breaks above 1.1140 to bet on a run for 1.1250 or even 1.13.

GBP/USD – Technical outlook below 1.3220: Bearish

As long as the short-term resistance area around 1.3220 remains unbroken, we expect further losses towards 1.30 and possibly even 1.2920.

DAX – Hovering below 15000

The crucial 15000-threshold remains unbroken, at least until now. As long as bulls are unable to drive the index above 14800, we will pay attention to a break below 14400. Below 14400, next targets will be at 14200 and 14100.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

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Market’s Risk-On Mode Could Be Premature

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Last trading week was none of our favorites since low volatility has left us with uncomfortably narrow trading ranges. This has led to some false price breakouts, particularly in the EUR/USD and DAX. Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, we can see an increase in the market’s appetite for risk, with the most liquid crypto currency pairs surging above recent resistance levels. However, while everybody hopes for a ceasefire in Ukraine that would ease pressure on the market, the ‘risk on’ approach could be premature and dangerous.

The U.S. dollar has fallen even if the Federal Reserve follows the most aggressive monetary policy approach in over 20 years. The market is pricing in a 60 percent chance of a 50bps rate hike in May and 70 percent chance of another 50bps hike in June. Given the Fed’s hawkish lean, dollar bulls should keep an eye on USD crosses.

This week we will watch the PCE deflator on Thursday and the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.

EUR/USD – Testing the 1.0950-support

The euro seems to be primed for a dip towards 1.09, provided that 1.0950 breaks. We will then pay attention to a potential break below 1.0880 which could send the euro tumbling towards 1.07. Overall, as long as the euro remains below 1.1050, we favor a bearish bias.

GBP/USD: The cable refrained from a climb above 1.33 and fell back towards 1.3140. For further bearish momentum, we would need to see a sustained break below 1.3080.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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EUR/USD: If 1.10 Holds, Bulls May Gain Control

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Welcome to a new trading week which is very light in terms of market moving data releases. This, however, doesn’t mean that we will not see any profitable moves in the coming days. The focus will continue to revolve around developments between Russia and Ukraine.

The euro rose last week against other counterparts on hopes for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The rebound in risk appetite sent the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1137 last Thursday before bulls took a breather.

EUR/USD – Bullish bias above 1.10

As long as the euro holds above 1.10, we will focus on the upper boundary of an ascending triangle at 1.1150. If the currency pair breaks above 1.1160, we could see a run for 1.14. On the downside however, if 1.10 breaks, we will shift our focus again to lower targets at 1.09 and 1.0750.

GBP/USD – 1.32, a crucial resistance

If sterling bulls are able to push the pair above 1.3210, we could possibly see a rebound towards 1.3350. If the current resistance zone remains however intact, we will focus on a break below 1.3080 in order to sell sterling towards 1.2950.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Inflation Is The Biggest Risk

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The war in Ukraine enters its third week and the outlook for financial markets is seriously uncertain. Global geopolitical risk, a slowdown in growth, high inflation and central banks that will be forced to tighten add to concerns about the global economic recovery.

The biggest risk is inflation. The Federal Reserve is expected to lift interest rates by 25bps on Wednesday. The focus will however be on the Fed’s official forecast and the outlook beyond the six quarter-point rate hikes this year that are already priced in. The questions will rather be: How high could rates ultimately go and how quickly will officials move to get there. The Fed’s dot plot of rate projections will thus play a key role.

Apart from the Fed, the Bank of England is also widely expected to hike 25bps for a third straight meeting on Thursday.

What do we expect technically in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs?

In the run-up to Wednesday’s FOMC decision we anticipate further USD strength with lower targets seen at 1.0730-1.07 in the EUR/USD and 1.2970-1.2950 in the GBP/USD.

GBP/USD: If 1.2950 holds, the cable may recover some losses towards 1.32 on a hawkish BoE.

EUR/USD: If the euro is unable to break above 1.1050, chances remain in favor of the bears with next lower targets seen at 1.07 and 1.0640.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Could ECB Decision Offer Some Breathing Space For The Euro?

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It’s Tuesday and we are back at our trading desks.

Markets have been in a tailspin since Russia’s attack on Ukraine. And the war continues.

While the invasion of Ukraine remains a source of fundamental volatility for the euro and other assets, traders look to the European Central bank decision this Thursday that may offer the euro some breathing space – at least in short-term time frames.

EUR/USD – Going Downhill

The euro slid toward a low of nearly 1.08 on fundamental risk stemming from the war in Ukraine and the collateral damage. If the euro holds, however, above 1.0770 we will shift our focus to a short-term resistance zone between 1.10-1.1050. Falling below 1.0770 could see lower targets at 1.0740 and 1.0650.

GBP/USD – On the way towards 1.30?

The cable’s slide below 1.3150 opens the door for a potential leg down towards 1.30 but the downward move is unlikely to be straight-lined given the oversold situation. We expect that the pair will correct some of its losses towards at least 1.32 before falling further down.

DAX – Sell-Off

The index slid even below 12600 but could stop its fall slightly before 12400. If the index is unable to stabilize above 13800, we could see a dive towards 11300.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Panic Eased After Reports Of Fire At Ukraine Nuclear Plant

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Initial panic eased in many assets after reports of a fire at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in eastern Ukraine hit the headlines. The fire “has not affected ‘essential’ equipment,” since the fire was in an administrative building. The market’s panic eased somewhat as investors weighed the incident.

Apart from the developments in Ukraine, traders will watch the key monthly U.S. employment report today at 12:30 UTC.

Daily Forex, DAX And Crypto Signals:

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Monthly results 2022:

February 2022: +531 pips

January 2022: +766 pips

 

Results 2021:

December 2021: +61 pips

November 2021: +452 pips

October 2021: +165 pips

September 2021: +578 pips

August 2021: +135 pips

July 2021: +34 pips

June 2021: +264 pips

May 2021: +528 pips

April 2021: +278 pips

March 2021: +45 pips

February 2021: +42 pips

January 2021: +472 pips

 

Results 2020:

December 2020: +318 pips

November 2020: +75 pips

October 2020: +432 pips

 

Try out our new signals for cryptocurrencies:

ETH/USD

We wish you good trades!

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The Future Is Uncertain

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What is certain is that the future is uncertain at this moment with the Ukraine-Russia crisis deteriorating. Investors fear that the crisis will get worse before it gets better with the result of a strengthening U.S. dollar.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify today at 15:00 UTC before the House and Senate panel. Traders are waiting for hints of a potential half percentage-point rate hike this month. If Powell acknowledges the risks created by the conflict and signals on high inflation, the dollar will rise.

EUR/USD: Below 1.1080, the euro may drop towards 1.10. Short-term resistance is seen at 1.12-1.1250.

GBP/USD: Below 1.3240 we will focus on a next target at 1.3175. Below 1.3170, our next lower target will be 1.30. A short-term resistance is seen at 1.3550.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Is This The Beginning Of A Bear Market?

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King Dollar has risen against almost everything as investors looked for shelter.

Many traders now question whether the Ukraine war could be the begin of a bear market. Prices whipsawed when the Russian military invaded Ukraine last week but some traders saw it as an opportunity to “buy the invasion”, a behavior that has led to a tremendous reversal in the market. While buying-the-dip gains show investors are piling in, more voices are now warning investors to be careful. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will cause higher inflation which will force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. The invasion also increases the risk of stagflation, when inflation remains high while economic growth and unemployment are also high. The conflict in the middle of Europe could thus mean the end of the bull era of central bank excess and signal the beginning of a bear era of government intervention, social and political polarization and geopolitical isolationism, according to a Friday note from Bank of America Research.

However, while most of the past market declines did not become bear markets, the risk of a bear market is currently higher than at any other time. The sentiment will however depend on developments and may change any day.

EUR/USD – Opening with a downside gap

The down gap indicates a continuation of the downtrend but before bears assume the downtrend to resume, we may see short covering filling the gap. In other words, we may see a correction towards 1.1240 before selling pressures increases again. Nevertheless, if the euro drops below 1.1090, we brace for a decline towards 1.09.

DAX – Heading South

The index opened with a downside gap and could now face the lower support area at around 13600. Short-term bulls will watch out for prices above 14400 with higher targets seen at 14500 and 14800.

Our buy position today at 14210 was closed in profit at 14250.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Short Durability Of Buy-The-Dip Rebound?

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Europe entered one of its worst security crises since World War II.

Following yesterday’s rapid Market sell-off we saw a buy-the-dip rebound but the question is now whether the rebound is durable. This may be difficult however, since the conflict muddied the outlook for markets and the global economic recovery. Traders should expect further losses in risk assets while the U.S. dollar benefits as a safe haven.

EUR/USD: Below 1.1090, we expect further losses towards 1.09. Short-term resistance is seen at 1.1320.

GBP/USD: Below 1.32, we expect further losses towards 1.30. Short-term resistance is seen at 1.36.

DAX: As long as the index remains below 14800, we anticipate further losses towards 13500 and 13000.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Market Sells-Off On Escalating Russia-Ukraine Tensions

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Risk aversion – Market sells-off.

Latest update: Russian President Vladimir Putin said he’s ordered a “special military operation” to protect the people of the Donbas separatist region, but said Russia will “aim for demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.” Putin said Russia must “defend itself from those who took Ukraine hostage” — the U.S. and its allies who had crossed Russia’s “red line” with expansion of the NATO alliance (Source: Bloomberg).

Investors fled again into safe havens on escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions. The U.S. widened sanctions against Russia and the EU applied penalties to 23 high-level Russians. The West’s sanctions came after Vladmir Putin signed a decree officially recognizing two self-proclaimed separatist republics in eastern Ukraine. Separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine appealed to Putin for help fighting Ukrainian forces, adding into concerns that military conflicts in the region may escalate further.

The U.S. dollar benefited from its safe haven status, sending both pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower. The DAX sold off, approaching the 14000-barrier this morning. Next bearish target is 13600.

EUR/USD: Below 1.1220, watch out for lower prices at around 1.11. A short-term resistance is seen at 1.1330.

GBP/USD: Below 1.3480, watch out for lower prices at around 1.34. A short-term resistance is seen at 1.36.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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