Market’s Sell-Off Intensifies

The market’s sell-off intensified on Wednesday and while we, as day traders, benefit from sharp market moves, the U.S. dollar’s strength is impressive given the threat around the U.S. debt ceiling and the risk of default. The greenback benefits from its role as a safe haven currency but with such a specific fundamental threat, investors should be careful.

GBP/USD – Pound at risk of sharp declines

The cable broke below all crucial support zones, losing over 2 percent this month while no one can say how low it might go. The mix of supply-chain chaos, faster inflation and the threat of interest rate hikes is causing anxiety among investors. Some investors might fear that an early rate hike will worsen the growth prospects for the U.K. From a technical perspective we know that bearish movements are typically stronger and more unpredictable than bullish movements. We therefore pencil in a next lower target at 1.32. Former supports can now turn into resistances, such as the former 1.36-support.

EUR/USD – We finally got the bearish break!

The euro broke below 1.1670 and headed for a test of the crucial 1.16-mark. Currently we see the pair holding above 1.16 but it could be only a matter of time until 1.16 breaks significantly. We now see a lower target at 1.15, whereas a lower resistance could come in at around 1.1690.

Today is the final trading day of September and our results for this trading month are quite good: +598 pips which is equal to a net profit of $ 2390 by a low-risk management of only 1% per trade.

 

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Pound And DAX Sell-Off – Next Targets To Watch Out

Tuesday saw a broad-based sell-off on concerns about inflation. More specifically, concerns over the debt-ceiling impasse added to the fresh bout of risk aversion. The U.S. dollar benefited.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned in a Senate hearing that a U.S. default due to a failure to raise the debt ceiling would have catastrophic consequences. Republicans blocked a move to raise the debt limit.

The worst performer was the British pound that sold off as investors turned cautious on surging energy prices and panic-buying.

GBP/USD – Risk-aversion sent the pair tumbling

The cable broke below 1.36 and headed towards 1.35. We now see the pair within a crucial support zone ranging from 1.36 until 1.3450. We expect some rebound as long as 1.3450 holds.

DAX – Bring it down

The index reversed course after 15700 proved to be difficult to overcome. Traders now eye the crucial 15000-support followed by 14900. If 14800 breaks, we get a sell signal with a lower target around 14300.

EUR/USD – Where is the breakout?

The euro refrained from a technical breakout while prices are confined to a very narrow range. We keep an eye on a upside move above 1.17 to anticipate a higher target at 1.1740, or on the downside, a break below 1.1670 that could lead to further losses towards 1.1630.

 

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Daily Forex Signals 28/9/2021

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1710

Short @ 1.1680

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3730

Short @ 1.3685 Position has hit profit target

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 15630

Short @ 15540 Position has hit final profit target

 

Monthly results 2021:

August 2021: +135 pips

July 2021: +34 pips

June 2021: +264 pips

May 2021: +528 pips

April 2021: +278 pips

March 2021: +45 pips

February 2021: +42 pips

January 2021: +472 pips

 

Results 2020:

December 2020: +318 pips

November 2020: +75 pips

October 2020: +432 pips

 

We wish you good trades!

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Euro testet 1.17-Unterstützung – weitere Verluste voraus?

Willkommen zur letzten Handelswoche im September. Der Euro zeigte sich zur Markteröffnung unbewegt nachdem die Bundestagswahl in Deutschland keinen klaren Gewinner hervorbrachte. Nach einem engen Kopf-an-Kopf-Rennen liegen die Sozialdemokraten vor Merkels Union. Deutschland könnte nun eine Dreierkoalition unter Olaf Scholz bilden, jedoch steht eine schwierige Regierungsbildung bevor, welche sich über Monate hinziehen könnte. Der Euro hielt sich bis heute Morgen stabil oberhalb von 1.17.

Nach der hawkischen Botschaft der letzten Woche von Federal Reserve und der Bank von England könnten der Greenback und das Pfund Sterling an Zugkraft gewinnen, jedoch wird dies auch vom Risikoappetit für andere Währungen abhängen. Wir werden ein Auge auf das technische Bild haben um potenzielle Kursausbrüche in den nächsten Tagen zu validieren.

Verglichen mit letzter Woche stehen diese Woche zwar keine gewichtigen Risikoevents an, jedoch sollten Trader ein Augenmerk auf das Forum der Europäischen Zentralbank am Mittwoch haben, dass Zentralbanker von Fed, EZB, BoE und BoJ zusammenbringt. Die wichtigste Datenmeldung könnte der PCE Index am Freitag sein, ein vielbeachteter Inflationsindikator der Fed. Desweiteren sagen am Dienstag Fed Präsident Jerome Powell und Treasury Sekretärin Yellen vor dem Bankenausschuss aus.

EUR/USD: Wir erwarten das Paar zwischen 1.1770 und 1.1660. Ein deutlicher Bruch oberhalb von 1.1770 könnte die Tür für einen Test von 1.1830 öffnen. Unterhalb von 1.1640 würden hingegen die Bären Kontrolle übernehmen.

GBP/USD: Solange der Cable oberhalb von 1.36 verbleibt, stehen die Chancen zugunsten der Bullen mit einem höheren Ziel bei 1.3880. Fällt das Paar unter 1.36 könnten wir einen Rutsch bis 1.35 sehen.

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Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

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EUR/USD Tests 1.17-Support, More Losses To Come?

Welcome to the last week of September. The euro was unmoved at this week’s opening as the German election failed to produce a clear winner. Following the tight election, the Social Democrats edged ahead of Merkel’s conservative bloc. Germany is set for a three-way coalition, led by SPD’s Olaf Scholz but it could take months of negotiations and uncertainty to form a coalition. The euro was steady this morning, holding above 1.17.

Following last week’s hawkish messages from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, the greenback and the pound sterling could gain traction but it will also depend on the market’s risk appetite for other peers. We will keep an eye on the technical picture in order to validate potential price breakouts in the coming days.

Compared to the last week, we do not have the heavy docket of event risks this week but traders should keep an eye on the European Central Bank’s forum panel on Wednesday that brings together heads of the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ. The top listing for data will be Friday’s PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation indicator. Furthermore, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen will testify at a Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.

EUR/USD: We expect the pair to trade between 1.1770 and 1.1660. A clear break above 1.1770 could open door for a test of 1.1830. Below 1.1640, bears will gain control.

GBP/USD: As long as the cable remains above 1.36, chances are in favor of the bulls with a higher target at 1.3880. Falling below 1.36 could see a dip towards 1.35.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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A profitable Trading Week

Signal performance in September: +479 pips so far.

A profitable trading week is drawing to a close. As for our daily signals this week’s best performer was the GBP/USD, that provided a net gain of +115 pips in only two days of trading. The largest profit was generated by yesterday’s buy position which was opened at 1.3660 and closed at 1.3745.

The reason for the pound rally was the Bank of England which raised the prospect of hiking interest rates as soon as November to contain a surge in inflation. Yesterday’s decision puts the BoE in the more hawkish camp of global central banks, which is now expected being first for a hike, well ahead of the Federal Reserve.

GBP/USD: Remaining above 1.3620, we expect the pair to test the 1.3880-level.

EUR/USD: Chances are currently in favor of the bulls. We pencil in higher targets at 1.1770 and 1.1820.

DAX: If 15800 remains unbroken to the upside, we expect the index to drop back towards 15500. Above 15820, we will shift our focus again to the 16000-level.

Today we will save our weekly profits and wish everyone a beautiful weekend!

We wish you good trades!

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U.S. Dollar Remains On Solid Footing After Fed Decision

To sum up, yesterday’s FOMC announcement was hawkish enough to keep the U.S. dollar on a strong footing, even though big market movements were lacking. In terms of a first rate hike, Federal Reserve officials are now evenly split on whether or not it will be appropriate to begin raising rates as soon as next year. The market continued to price in a first hike around the start of 2023, an assumption that can be considered less hawkish and which has led to a very small sell-off in the greenback at the time when projections were released.

The dollar gained back ground around the time of the press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying the central bank could begin scaling back asset purchases in November and complete the process by mid-2022. This was the hint on tapering the market has expected.

As for fears over an economic collapse in China, Powell spoke on the Evergrande situation during his press conference but he does not expect any spillover into global markets. Market participants will now be looking to see if Evergrande makes its next debt payment which totals $83.5 million.

The next central bank decision is around the corner with the Bank of England monetary policy announcement due at 11:00 UTC today.

While risks are tilted for a hawkish outcome for the BoE meeting, there is a concern that markets may be overly optimistic amid the recent increase in rate hike calls by analysts. A rate increase is seen by May 22.

In the GBP/USD we continue to look at a price range between 1.39 and 1.3550 and bear in mind that the pair is still oversold making it vulnerable for corrections.

We wish you good trades!

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Wird die Fed den falkenhaften Erwartungen des Marktes gerecht werden?

Es war eine Art des sogenannten „Turnaround-Tuesday“, beziehungsweise ein Umkehr-Dienstag denn der U.S. Dollar gab infolge seiner jüngsten Aufwertung der letzten Tage etwas nach. Dennoch schien der Markt lediglich eine Verschnaufpause zu nehmen im Vorfeld der Federal Reserve Entscheidung heute Abend. Die Stimmung am Markt könnte daher bis zur Entscheidung um 20:00 Uhr ‚gezügelt‘ sein.

Es wird erwartet, dass die Fed eine, später in diesem Jahr stattfindende, Reduktion ihres Stimulus signalisieren wird. Der Fokus richtet sich zudem auf die ‚Dot-Plot‘- Zinsprognosen der Zentralbank. Die heutige FOMC Entscheidung könnte allerdings knifflig sein, denn die Fed nähert sich zunehmend der Straffung der Anleihekäufe inmitten einer Verschlechterung des globalen Wirtschaftsumfeld wobei Schätzungen über ein rückläufiges BIP Wachstum in den USA, eine relativ hohe Inflation und steigende Covid Fälle eine Bedrohung darstellen.

Was wird genau erwartet?

Marktakteure erwarten eine falkenhafte Fed mit einem deutlichen Hinweis auf den Taper, welcher noch vor Jahresende beginnen wird infolge einer formellen Verkündung im November.

Das Falken-Szenario: Sollte die Fed denken, dass es Zeit ist zu straffen und zeigen die Dot-Plot Prognosen zudem eine erste Zinsanhebung in der zweiten Jahreshälfte von 2022, so wird der Dollar steigen.

Das Tauben-Szenario: Enttäuscht die Fed die Erwartungen des Marktes und gibt an, dass die Konditionen für eine Straffung noch nicht gegeben sind und spielt Fed Präsident Jerome Powell zudem den Countdown für eine Zinsanhebung runter, so wird der Dollar stark fallen.

Trader werden ihr Hauptaugenmerk auf die Zinsprognosen um 20:00 Uhr und die Pressekonferenz um 20:30 Uhr legen.

EUR/USD: Klettert der Euro über 1.1765, rechnen wir mit einem Test der 1.1770-1.18 Kursregion. Eine aktuelle Unterstützungszone befindet sich weiterhin zwischen 1.17 und 1.1660. Für einen bullischen Ausbruch bedürfte es einem Anstieg über 1.1850, was das Sentiment zugunsten der Bullen verändern könnte.

GBP/USD: Das Paar befindet sich weiterhin in überverkauftem Territorium und schwebt über 1.3650. Fällt der Cable unter 1.3630 und ferner unter 1.36, so sehen wir ein nächstes tieferes Ziel bei 1.3550. Auf der Oberseite schauen wir auf eine Widerstandszone zwischen 1.38 und 1.39.

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Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

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Will The Fed Meet The Market’s Hawkish Expectations?

It was a kind of turnaround-Tuesday with the U.S. dollar edging down after its most recent acceleration. However, it seemed that the market was just taking a breather ahead of today’s Federal Reserve decision. The sentiment could remain constrained until the decision at 18:00 UTC.

The Fed is expected to signal a reduction in stimulus later this year. The focus will also be on the dot plot rate hike forecasts. However, the FOMC announcement could be a tricky one as the Fed moves increasingly closer to scaling back asset purchases amid a deteriorating global economic backdrop where slowing GDP growth estimates in the U.S., relatively high inflation and rising Covid cases are posing a threat.

What is expected today?

Market participants expect a hawkish Fed with a strong hint that the taper will begin before the end of the year following a formal announcement in November.

The hawkish scenario: If the Fed thinks it is time to taper and if the dot plot shows a first rate hike in late 2022 the dollar will rise.

The dovish scenario: If the Fed disappoints the market’s expectations, stating that taper conditions haven’t been met and if Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplays the countdown for a rate liftoff, the dollar will sharply fall.

Most interesting for traders will be the dot-plot forecast due for release at 18:00 UTC and Powell’s press conference at 18:30 UTC.

EUR/USD: If the euro climbs above 1.1765, we expect the pair to test the 1.1770-1.18 price area. A current support zone remains intact between 1.17 and 1.1660. For a bullish breakout we would need a rise above 1.1850 which would shift the sentiment in favor of the bulls.

GBP/USD: The pair still remains oversold while hovering around 1.3650. If the cable falls below 1.3630 and further 1.36, we see a next lower target at 1.3550. On the upside we look at a resistance zone between 1.38 and 1.39.

 

We wish you good trades!

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Could It Be A Turnaround-Tuesday?

Contagion worries over China’s property sector crackdown have fueled a global selloff in the market.

Following Monday’s plunge, it seems that selling pressure eased off somewhat with the DAX finding support at the crucial 15000-mark – at least for now. Elsewhere, the EUR/USD bounced off the 1.17-support while the cable remained trading above 1.3630.

Is it turnaround-Tuesday today? Maybe, since a correction on a Tuesday was often the case in the past following big market moves on a Monday. So, watch out for some rebound today.

EUR/USD: If the euro is able to climb back above 1.1750, we expect the pair to test the 1.1770-1.18 price area. A current support zone remains intact between 1.17 and 1.1660. Only a break above 1.1850 would shift the sentiment in favor of the bulls.

GBP/USD: The pair is oversold, making a pullback towards 1.38 and even 1.39 likely now. Falling however below 1.3630 and further 1.36, a next lower target comes in at 1.3550.

DAX: Once 15000 breaks significantly to the downside, we expect the index to test 14800 in a next move. If 15000 however holds, we anticipate a rebound towards 15700.

We wish you good trades!

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