Profitable Trades

We got what we have been braced for: A profitable breakout in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The surprise strength in U.S. retail sales raised the prospect of a Federal Reserve taper and thus strengthened the U.S. dollar. The Fed’s FOMC meeting next week is now another possible source of volatility as market participants await clues about the taper time-line and eventually interest rate hikes.

EUR/USD

The euro dropped below 1.18 and extended its slide to the support zone around 1.1750. We went short at 1.1790 and took advantage of that bearish move.

We also went short at 1.3820 in the GBP/USD yesterday and profited from the greenback’s strength until 1.3780.

Today we will save our weekly profit and will wait for the next week to offer some profitable movements.

Good weekend everyone.

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Price Breakouts In Preparation?

Not much has changed in the price development of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD Wednesday.

While the pound traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar on the back of higher U.K. inflation, the euro remained confined to a very small trading range between 1.1835 and 1.18.

Is it time for a breakout? Given the sluggish price development in recent days we keep tabs on potential price breakouts providing bigger moves and thus larger gains for traders. Today we will have U.S. retail sales scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC, a report that could have an impact on the greenback.

Let’s take a brief look at the technical picture:

EUR/USD

Above 1.1825 we expect the pair to test the 1.1830-40 area again. Euro bulls should watch out for a break above 1.1860 that could lead to a test of 1.1870-80. A bearish breakout, on the other side, could start with a dip below 1.1790. A lower target is seen at 1.1750-40.

GBP/USD

The cable holds above 1.38 and thus, chances are still in favor of a bullish move towards 1.39 and 1.40. For the bears to regain control, we must need to see a break below 1.3780.

DAX

We will watch out for rise above 15735 in order to anticipate more gains towards 15850. Below 15620, we expect the index to fall towards 15550 and possibly even 15400.

 

We wish you good trades!

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Here Is Why The Dollar’s Sell-Off Did Not Last

U.S. inflation was less than forecast in August which is why the U.S. dollar sold off in a first response to the data. But why did the dollar dip not last and prices in the GBP/USD and EUR/USD reversed course? The answer is that inflation remains generally elevated while the 5.3 percent (YoY) headline and 4.0 percent core CPI are still far beyond the Federal Reserve target. This leaves the argument about whether pandemic-related inflationary pressures are transitory undecided. The Fed may have some more flexibility on when to start tapering but high inflation is till an argument for a more imminent taper decision.

Fed policy makers could eventually wait until December to officially announce a plan to taper asset purchases.

Technically, both GBP/USD and EUR/USD pulled back from short-term resistance zones. The cable reversed course after touching 1.3913 and is now looking at a break of 1.38. Below 1.3780, we look at 1.3730 and further 1.3650. In the EUR/USD we look at a trading range between 1.1840 and 1.1750 as long as bulls are unable to take out the 1.1850-barrier.

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U.S. CPI Data To Underpin Fed Taper Talks?

The U.S. dollar traded slightly lower ahead of today’s U.S. CPI report which is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

If August CPI data shows that inflationary pressures slowed-down, we will see a bearish reaction in the dollar, pushing both EUR/USD and GBP/USD higher. An upside surprise, on the other side, would lead to a stronger dollar as traders pull forward bets on the timing of monetary tightening. At the Jackson Hole Symposium last month, the Federal Reserve led market participants believe that policy makers would wait longer before withdrawing stimulus but there has been speculation in recent days that the Fed may drop a hint of a forthcoming taper announcement at their FOMC meeting next week. This would be dollar-positive. But a hawkish signal will also depend on elevated inflationary pressures.

We could know more in the afternoon.

EUR/USD: The pair was able to stabilize again above 1.18 after testing 1.1770. Above 1.1830 we could see a run for 1.1870-80. Below 1.1790, the pair could test 1.1750.

GBP/USD: Remaining above 1.3750, chances are slightly in favor of a bullish move towards 1.3970. Below 1.3730, the focus shifts to a lower target at 1.3630.

 

We wish you good trades!

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Trader richten Fokus auf Inflationsdaten

Willkommen zu einer neuen Handelswoche. Trader werden in dieser Woche womöglich das Hauptaugenmerk auf die Inflationsdaten aus den USA, U.K. und der Eurozone richten um die Erwartungen hinsichtlich geldpolitischer Straffungen zu formen.  Der U.S. Dollar lief in der Zwischenzeit leicht zu neuer Stärke an und drückte den Euro und das Britische Pfund in Richtung und unterhalb wichtiger Unterstützungszonen.

Die U.S. Inflation wird erstmals mit einem Rückgang in diesem Jahr erwartet, was die Chancen auf eine bärische Bewegung im Greenback erhöht.  Der Beweis für ein langsameres Preiswachstum würde ein Festhalten an der aktuellen Geldpolitik der Federal Reserve rechtfertigen. Eine höher als prognostizierte Inflation könnte hingegen eine bullische Reaktion im Dollar generieren. Der U.S. Inflationsbericht steht am Dienstag an.

EUR/USD

Das Paar konnte sich bis heute Morgen oberhalb der 1.18-Barriere halten, doch nachdem diese Schwelle nun unterschritten wurde, könnte es eventuell in einem nächsten Schritt tiefer bis 1.1750 und 1.1730 gehen. Auf der Oberseite schauen wir auf einen Widerstand bei 1.1880, welcher neue Verkäufer auf den Plan rufen könnte. Für einen bullischen Ausbruch hingegen, müssten wir einen Kursausbruch über 1.1910 zu sehen bekommen.

GBP/USD: Solange sich der Cable oberhalb von 1.3750 befindet, markieren wir höhere Ziele zwischen 1.3950-70.

DAX: Nachdem 15700 unterschritten würde, rutschte der Index tiefer hinzu 15400. Sollten jedoch die aktuellen Unterstützungslevel bei 15400 und 15250 halten, rechnen wir mit einer neuen Aufwärtsbewegung zurück zu 15900.

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Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

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Traders Eye Inflation Reports

Welcome to a new trading week. Traders will likely be eyeing key inflation data from the U.S., U.K. and eurozone this week to shape expectations for monetary policy tightening. The U.S. dollar in the meantime strengthened slightly against other peers, pushing the euro and British pound lower and below crucial support levels.

U.S. inflation is expected to slow down for the first time this year, increasing the chances of a bearish reaction in the greenback. Evidence of slower price growth would warrant the Federal Reserve’s current path for monetary policy, while a higher than forecast inflation reading could generate a bullish reaction in the dollar. The U.S. inflation report is due for release on Tuesday.

EUR/USD

The pair held above the 1.18-barrier until this morning but now that the threshold was breached, we could see the euro falling towards 1.1750 and 1.1730 in a next move. On the topside, we look at a resistance at 1.1880 that could attract sellers. For a bullish breakout, however, we would need to see prices above 1.1910.

GBP/USD: As long as the cable holds above 1.3750, we pencil in higher targets between 1.3950-70.

DAX: After 15700 broke, the index slid lower towards 15400 but if current support levels seen at 15400 and 15250 hold, we anticipate a bullish move back towards 15900.

We wish you good trades!

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ECB Decision Proved To Be Another Non-Event For Traders

The euro’s weak performance following the European Central Bank decision illustrates what the market thinks about the ECB’s decision: There is nothing particularly new but empty rhetoric.

“The lady isn’t tapering” ECB President Christine Lagarde told reporters in Frankfurt, describing yesterday’s central bank decision “a recalibration of the pandemic emergency purchase program for the next three months.” The ECB will slow the pace of its pandemic bond-buying program in the final quarter 2021 but signaled policymakers are not yet ready to discuss ending the measure.

The next crucial ECB meeting for future guidance will be on December 16.

For traders yesterdays’ ECB meeting turned out to be once again a non-event with the EUR/USD swinging directionless between 1.1850 and 1.18.

As long as the pair remains between 1.19 and 1.1750 there is nothing new to report.

The GBP/USD looks set to continue its bullish move towards 1.3950. Only a renewed break below 1.3730 would change the picture in favor of the bears.

Have a good weekend everyone.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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ECB Decision Day: No Chance For Big Moves?

The U. S. dollar ticked slightly higher Wednesday and sent both of our major currency pairs to short-term support levels which have proved to hold so far.

Elsewhere, we got a profitable breakout in the DAX yesterday after the 15700-support level was significantly breached to the downside. Our short entry at 15790 has thus proved highly profitable. Lower supports are now seen at 15430 and 15300.

It’s decision day at the European Central Bank. The European economy is growing faster than was anticipated, but is it enough for policy makers to phase out the central bank’s crisis support? Maybe, but maybe not at this time. The ECB is seen to have more flexibility than the Federal Reserve in maneuvering monetary policy. ECB policy makers could thus be on track to retain the current policy. For the euro to rise it would require a clear exit strategy and a material shift in the ECB’s forward guidance. If the central bank retains its current monetary policy path, the euro could fall on disappointment.

Generally speaking, we do not expect fireworks today. We will prepare for potential price breakouts but do not anticipate exaggerated movements.

The most interesting part for traders will be ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference due at 12:30 UTC.

EUR/USD

The pair has been in a downward trend channel since May 2021. Based on that channel we anticipate lower targets to be at 1.1750 and 1.17. Euro bulls on the other side should watch out for a break above 1.1910 in order to buy euros towards 1.1980.

We wish you good trades!

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EZB Entscheid: Keine Chance auf große Bewegungen?

Der U.S. Dollar tendierte am Mittwoch leicht höher und schickte sowohl den EUR/USD als auch GBP/USD zu kurzfristigen Unterstützungslevels, welche bisher ihren Halt unter Beweis stellten.

Anderswo bekamen wir gestern einen profitablen Ausbruch im DAX, nachdem der 15700-Unterstützunglevel deutlich unterschritten wurde. Unser Short Einstieg bei 15790 hat sich somit als sehr profitabel erwiesen. Tiefere Unterstützungen werden jetzt bei 15430 und 15300 gesehen.

Es ist Entscheidungstag bei der Europäischen Zentralbank. Die europäische Wirtschaft wächst schneller als erwartet, ist dies jedoch genug damit die Währungshüter mit einem langsamen Abbau des Krisen-Supports beginnen können? Vielleicht, vielleicht aber noch nicht zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt. Die EZB hat mehr Flexibilität als die Federal Reserve im Manövrieren der Geldpolitik. Deshalb könnten die Währungshüter geneigt sein, die aktuelle Geldpolitik vorerst noch beizubehalten. Damit der Euro heute steigt bedürfte es einer klaren Ausstiegsstrategie und einer wesentlichen Wende im EZB Fahrplan. Behält die Zentralbank jedoch ihren aktuellen Pfad bei, so könnte der Euro fallen aufgrund einer enttäuschenden Marktreaktion.

Generell erwarten wir kein Kursfeuerwerk heute. Wir werden uns zwar auf potenzielle Kursausbrüche vorbereiten, rechnen jedoch nicht mit übertriebenen Bewegungen.

Der interessanteste Part geht von EZB Präsidentin Christine Lagardes Pressekonferenz um 14:30 Uhr aus.

EUR/USD

Das Paar befindet sich seit Mai diesen Jahres in einem Abwärtstrendkanal. Basierend auf jenem Kanal rechnen wir mit tieferen Zielen bei 1.1750 und 1.17. Eurobullen auf der anderen Seite sollten auf einen Ausbruch oberhalb von 1.1910 achten um den Euro in Richtung von 1.1980 zu kaufen.

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Wir wünschen gute Trades!

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

Copyright © 2021 MaiMarFX.

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Short Traders Profit Amid Tuesday’s Selloff

Tuesday saw a selloff across the markets while the U.S. dollar rallied. Short traders were able to profit, particularly in the GBP/USD where our short position (SELL at 1.3815) has reached its profit target.

Elsewhere, cryptocurrencies saw a flash crash with Ethereum and Bitcoin correcting recent gains and testing crucial support levels.

The EUR/USD remained confined to a small trading range ahead of the ECB decision tomorrow. We expect that the euro’s lethargic state will continue, at least until the ECB press conference tomorrow.  We look at a price range between 1.19 and 1.1750 for now.

GBP/USD: A lower support is seen at 1.3730 and once that lower barrier is significantly breached, our focus shifts to 1.3650. Resistances are seen at 1.3880 and 1.3980.

DAX: We keep tabs on price breakouts either above 16000 or below 15700.

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

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