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U.S. Job Bericht: Vorsicht- Verbrennungsgefahr!

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Wie erwartet kam es am Donnerstag zu größeren Bewegungen denn Marktakteure positionierten sich für einen stärkeren U.S. Arbeitsmarktbericht nachdem die ADP Beschäftigungsänderung deutlich positiv überraschte. Short Trader kamen sowohl im EUR/USD als auch im GBP/USD auf ihre Kosten und heute wartet jeder gespannt darauf, ob der Job Bericht den Straffungs-Talk bei der Federal Reserve einläuten wird. Sollte der Bericht die Erwartungen übertreffen, so wird der U.S. Dollar steigen denn es herrscht mehr Druck auf der Fed, eher früher als später einen falkenhaften Schritt zu unternehmen.

Wie dem auch sei, die Erwartungen sind heute extrem hoch und Trader sollten vorsichtig sein denn es muss mit extremen Kurs Fluktuationen zur Veröffentlichung der Daten um 14:30 Uhr gerechnet werden. Extreme Volatilität kann vorige Gewinne blitzschnell ausradieren und zu starken Verlusten führen. Die Einschätzungen zum Jobwachstum rangieren von 335,000 bis zu 1 Million neuer Stellen im Mai, somit ist alles möglich und macht es extrem gefährlich im Vorfeld der Daten eine Position einzugehen. Worauf zudem genau geachtet werden sollte ist das Lohnwachstum. Der Greenback wird von einer höheren Lesung profieren während Spekulationen über einer Straffung an Dynamik gewinnen.

Während alles vom NFP Ergebnis abhängen wird, werfen wir jedoch noch einen kurzen Blick auf das technische Bild zur besseren Orientierung.

EUR/USD

Der übergeordnete Trend ist aufwärts mit wichtigen Unterstützungszonen bei 1.20, 1.19 und 1.16. Auf kurzfristigen Zeitebenen, fällt der Euro unter 1.2070, erwarten wir weitere Verluste in Richtung von 1.19. Auf der Oberseite bräuchten Bullen einen signifikanten Ausbruch oberhalb von 1.23 und ferner 1.2350 um den Fokus gen 1.25 zu richten.

GBP/USD

Solange sich der Cable oberhalb von 1.4050 aufhält, wird der jüngste Aufwärtstrend als intakt angesehen. Eine wichtige Unterstützungszone erstreckt sich danach von 1.40 bis 1.3950 und sollte diese Zone nach unten durchbrochen werden, könnten wir eine tiefere Korrektur bis 1.38 und 1.37 sehen. Auf der Oberseite, werden Bullen das 1.4250-Level erklimmen müssen um das Pfund Richtung 1.4350 zu pushen.

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Biden’s Plan: Millions And Millions Of Jobs

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Even though large movements lacked on the final day of the first quarter, which was by the way the best quarter in a year for the U.S. dollar, traders were able to profit on the long side in both GBP/USD and DAX.

U.S. President Joe Biden laid out a $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan that will be funded with higher corporate taxes. The administration said that tax increases would “fully pay for” the plan, with corporate income tax rising to 28 percent from 21 percent. What Biden laid out yesterday is just the first part of his long-term economic program, with a second part to be announced in mid-April. According to an administration official, Biden’s plan will create millions and millions of jobs which would bode well for the U.S. dollar over the next years.

GBP/USD: The cable tested the 1.38-handle but refrained from a bullish breakout – at least until this morning. In case of a break above 1.3815 we expect the pair to head for a test of its resistance at 1.3840-50. Below 1.3750 however, we anticipate lower targets around 1.3720.

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Will Quarter-End-Flows Generate Big Moves Today?

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Today is not only the last day of March but also the last day of the first quarter and traders know very well that month-end and quarter-end rebalancing flows might lead to volatile movements in the currency market. Yesterday we saw the U.S. dollar strengthening against the euro and British pound while short traders in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD were able to profit from the greenback’s strength.

U.S. President Joe Biden is due to announce part-one of his infrastructure package today and it will be interesting whether we will see a continuation of the greenback’s rally or whether a correction is due to profit taking and month-end flows.

EUR/USD

The euro is on its way down towards 1.17. While we may see even a test of 1.1690, traders should brace for potential pullbacks since the pair is in oversold territory. However, a break below 1.1680 may pushes the pair lower towards a test of 1.1630 and 1.16. A current resistance on the other side is seen at 1.18.

GBP/USD

Based on the recent downward trend channel we may see a continuation of the cable’s decline targeting at 1.36 and 1.3570. An upside break of 1.3850 could however pave the way for fresh gains towards 1.40.

DAX

The index hit the bullish target at 15000 and market participants wonder whether more gains could be in store. From a technical perspective, as long as the DAX holds above 14850-14800, we may see an extension of gains until 15120 but this depends on the market’s risk appetite and today’s rebalancing flows. If 14800 breaks, gains could be corrected towards 14700 and 14600.

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Dollar Slips On Trump Comments

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Dear Traders,

Despite a relatively quiet start to the new week, buyers in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD were able to book some profit.

During the Asian session we saw the U.S. dollar extending its slide against its major peers after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump who said that he was “not thrilled” with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s raising of interest rates. Trump said the Fed should be more accommodating on rates helping him to boost the economy. Consequently, the dollar gave up some of its gains, pushing other counterparts higher in return.

Whether this could be the end of the dollar’s summer rally remains to be seen and hinges on trade talks between China and the U.S. as well as on the Fed’s point of view in terms of tighter monetary policy.

 

Announcement: MaiMarFX’s Chief Currency Strategist will commence her maternity leave in a few weeks. There will be no signal service while she remains on maternity leave. Daily analysis and signals will be paused until the end of the period of maternity leave.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Focus On U.S. CPI

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Dear Traders,

Technically speaking, we got what we were looking for: A breakout of the cable’s consolidated price range. The GBP/USD broke below 1.3230 after the pair failed to overcome the 1.3285-barrier. The downward movement was mainly due to a strengthening U.S. dollar.

Also, the EUR/USD fell victim to a new round of dollar strength and declined below 1.17. We see a current support at 1.1650 which could stop sellers from entering into new short positions, at least for now. A short-term resistance is, however seen at 1.1740, from where sellers could take the opportunity to sell euros at higher levels.

Today we have the U.S. Consumer Price Index scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. The headline CPI is due in at 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent which could help boosting the dollar rally. However, a miss could have a bigger impact on the dollar rather than an outcome in line with expectations.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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FOMC To Provide An Excuse For Profit-Taking On Dollar Long Positions?

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar showed no signs of weakness and extended its gains versus other major peers Tuesday. Thus, short traders in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD were once again able to book a good profit.

Having just warned in our analysis from Monday that signs could point to a bearish breakout, that break below crucial key levels in both of our major currency pairs came faster than we had expected. Despite the oversold situation in many major pairs and the need for consolidation, the U.S. dollar continued its bullish bias for the 9th trading day pushing its counterparts even lower. While the greenback’s linear rise is surprising, many traders wonder how long this dollar move will last. However, we continue to warn traders of profit-taking and potential pullbacks.

The market focus will now turn to the Federal Reserve meeting and FOMC rate decision today at 18:00 UTC.  The expectation for any change in monetary policy is very low at this meeting with no updated forecasts and no press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. However, the meeting should be a runway for another rate hike in June and if Fed policy makers don’t commit to rate increase next month the dollar will quickly fall as market participants are positioned for hawkishness from the Fed.

Investors will closely watch for whether the Fed makes more explicit its intention to raise rates three more times this year, for a total of four hikes in 2018.

In a nutshell, while the policy statement is expected to tilt to the hawkish side, there is a risk of disappointment. Dollar bulls may thus take the opportunity to take profit on dollar long positions.

Before coming to the FOMC decision, we will watch the ADP Employment Change at 12:15 UTC.

EUR/USD

The euro fluctuates around the 1.20-level while still being in oversold territory. We now expect the pair to trade between 1.2050 on the upper side and 1.1950 on the lower side.

GBP/USD

Given the strong bear candles in the daily chart we expect the risk to remain tilted to the downside with a lower target being at 1.3530/1.35. However, the cable is deeply oversold, which is why we prepare for pullbacks towards 1.37 and 1.3730.

 

 

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Quiet Trading On May 1st?

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Dear Traders,

We welcome you to the trading month of May. May 1st is a public holiday in many countries with many major markets shut for holidays. Trading in the Forex market could therefore be quieter than usual but that doesn’t necessarily mean that there will be no profitable movements. Let us be surprised.

Yesterday we saw the U.S. dollar continuing its rally against the euro and British pound with the GBP/USD touching a fresh low at 1.3712, slightly above the crucial 1.37-boundary. Following the recent declines and with both EUR/USD and GBP/USD hovering around key technical levels now, traders should expect some short covering around crucial support levels. In other words, prepare for consolidated movements around 1.20 in the EUR/USD and 1.37 in the GBP/USD.

EUR/USD: The euro was able to hold above 1.2050 and it will now hinge on the appetite for USD whether the euro falls towards 1.1990 or stabilizes above 1.2150.

GBP/USD: The cable rejected the 1.3710-level and consolidated between 1.38 and 1.37. Whether we will see some extended market moves above or below that zone remains to be seen. Above 1.38, we expect a next resistance to come in at around 1.3840 whereas on the bottom side, a next lower target could be at 1.3650.

Sterling traders will watch the U.K. PMI Manufacturing at 8:30 UTC today.

Furthermore, we have the ISM Manufacturing Index due for release at 14:00 UTC.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Moderate Recovery In EUR/USD And GBP/USD

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Dear Traders,

On Tuesday we finally saw some corrective movements in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD, even though yesterday’s pullbacks have been rather modest in terms of profitable movements.

The British pound was able to recover some of its recent losses and rose back towards 1.40. Given the recent bearish bias, we now expect the GBP/USD to trade within a price range between 1.4030 and 1.3820. For bullish momentum to accelerate we would need to see a breakout above 1.4035. A higher target could be at 1.4080.

The euro trended upwards after it has marked a fresh support at 1.2180. We mentioned in yesterday’s analysis that there could be a next resistance at 1.2240/50 and that level has proven stable for the time being. If the euro is able to overcome that barrier and rises significantly above 1.2250, we anticipate a higher price target at 1.2280/90. On the bottom side, we keep tabs on a price break below 1.2175 that could result in further losses towards 1.2090.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today so the price action could be subdued ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Dollar Rally: Next Price Levels To Watch Out For

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Dear Traders,

It seems that everyone is jumping into buying U.S. dollars before year-end as this trade appears to be relatively risk-free at the moment. Amidst a strong market environment the dollar rallied to its strongest level since 2003 against the euro while the British pound dropped below 1.24 after the Bank of England’s monetary policy statement flagged global risks. As expected, BoE policymakers kept monetary policy unchanged, indicating that the outlook for the global economy has darkened amid renewed strains from rising interest rates and a strong dollar.

The U.S. dollar is on the rise, so which are the next important price levels to pay attention to?

EUR/USD

The euro broke below its crucial support at 1.0470. Given the strong downtrend we should generally expect further losses towards 1.01 and possibly also a drop towards parity but this move may not happen this year. In view of the fact the price developments are never straight-lined, we must also prepare for potential pullbacks. With this in mind, we see a next resistance at around 1.05 – the former support area in the euro. Above 1.0570 however, prices may consolidate towards 1.0670.

GBP/USD

The pound sterling faces a next support zone ranging from 1.2350 to 1.23. In case of a break below 1.2270 the pound may tumble towards lower targets at 1.2150 and 1.21. If the cable, however, is able to hold above that support area we may see a renewed test of 1.2520 and 1.2660.

 

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. Eurozone Consumer Prices due at 10:00 UTC should be of secondary importance as no changes are expected. From the U.S. we only have Housing Starts scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC but this report is unlikely to affect the USD.

We hope that you were able to take some profits this week and wish you a relaxing pre-Christmas weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Quiet Trading On Thanksgiving?

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Dear Traders,

The FOMC minutes did not provide any new insights but did confirm the market’s assumption that a December rate hike should be a done deal. The minutes showed that Federal Reserve officials saw a strengthening case to raise interest rates as the labor market improved ‘appreciably’, with some saying a hike should take place next month. The U.S. dollar extended its gains versus the euro while the common currency fell to a fresh one-year low.

As stated in yesterday’s analysis, we now see next support levels at 1.0520 and 1.0470 and if these barriers fall, the next stop could be at parity. A current resistance is however seen at 1.06.

U.S. markets will be closed for Thanksgiving, which is why we expect market movements to be limited amid a low liquidity environment. Let’s see.

The only piece of economic data will be the German IFO index due at 9:00 UTC, which could have a minor impact on the euro.

The British pound remains the only major currency to outperform the U.S. dollar and traded resiliently between 1.2470 and 1.2360. Sterling traders were looking in vain for any profitable movements and so we had to record some losses after three failed sell attempts. However, the technical picture has not changed and we still wait for a break of 1.2515 or 1.2350 respectively.

Daily Forex signals:

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View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co