FOMC To Provide An Excuse For Profit-Taking On Dollar Long Positions?
The U.S. dollar showed no signs of weakness and extended its gains versus other major peers Tuesday. Thus, short traders in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD were once again able to book a good profit.
Having just warned in our analysis from Monday that signs could point to a bearish breakout, that break below crucial key levels in both of our major currency pairs came faster than we had expected. Despite the oversold situation in many major pairs and the need for consolidation, the U.S. dollar continued its bullish bias for the 9th trading day pushing its counterparts even lower. While the greenback’s linear rise is surprising, many traders wonder how long this dollar move will last. However, we continue to warn traders of profit-taking and potential pullbacks.
The market focus will now turn to the Federal Reserve meeting and FOMC rate decision today at 18:00 UTC. The expectation for any change in monetary policy is very low at this meeting with no updated forecasts and no press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. However, the meeting should be a runway for another rate hike in June and if Fed policy makers don’t commit to rate increase next month the dollar will quickly fall as market participants are positioned for hawkishness from the Fed.
Investors will closely watch for whether the Fed makes more explicit its intention to raise rates three more times this year, for a total of four hikes in 2018.
In a nutshell, while the policy statement is expected to tilt to the hawkish side, there is a risk of disappointment. Dollar bulls may thus take the opportunity to take profit on dollar long positions.
Before coming to the FOMC decision, we will watch the ADP Employment Change at 12:15 UTC.
The euro fluctuates around the 1.20-level while still being in oversold territory. We now expect the pair to trade between 1.2050 on the upper side and 1.1950 on the lower side.
Given the strong bear candles in the daily chart we expect the risk to remain tilted to the downside with a lower target being at 1.3530/1.35. However, the cable is deeply oversold, which is why we prepare for pullbacks towards 1.37 and 1.3730.
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