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DAX Technical Outlook

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The cable tested the 1.3550-resistance area again but bullish momentum was not strong enough for a push higher towards 1.36. In case of a break above 1.3575, we expect the GBP/USD to head for a test of 1.36 and possibly even  1.3625. Falling however below 1.34, the sentiment could change in favor of the bears.

The EUR/USD trended downwards toward 1.1260. For bearish momentum to gain strength we will wait for a sustained break below 1.12.

On Friday we will have fresh U.S. payrolls data from December that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve’s potential pace of rate hikes. The Fed is expected to raise rates at least three times beginning in May to counter price pressures.

In terms of market moves, we will also keep an eye on today’s FOMC meeting minutes.

DAX – Stabilization above 16000 fuels hope for bulls

Our long entries have proved highly profitable over the last two days. The index stabilized above the crucial 16000-mark and thus bulls have an eye on a potential break of the 16300-high. As long as 16000 holds, there might be nothing in the way of a higher target at 16650.  A break below 16000 and further 15700 will however turn our focus to lower targets around 15300.

 

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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USD Gains Traction With A Focus On FOMC Minutes

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As U.S. markets came back online after the July 4th holiday so did the U.S. dollar strength with the greenback accelerating against the euro and pound sterling on Tuesday.

While we expected some extended rebounds in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD, the round price levels at 1.19 and 1.39 have proved to be the limit so far.

EUR/USD: The euro reversed by just shy of 1.19 and is currently heading towards the south looking at the 1.18-level. If 1.1780 breaks, we will watch out for falling prices towards 1.1730/1.17. Resistances are seen at 1.1950 and 1.20.

GBP/USD: After sterling bulls were unable to push the pound above 1.39, the price retraced, marking an intraday low at 1.3772. We still see a crucial support at 1.37 from where we could see some rebound but if bears are strong enough to push the pair significantly below 1.3670, traders should expect steeper losses towards 1.35. We still see a small resistance at around 1.3920.

Traders will pay attention to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes today at 18:00 UTC for more clues on when the Fed may begin tapering its stimulus. The dollar could thus gain some traction ahead of the release.

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EUR/USD With a Tailwind While GBP/USD Tests 1.38-Support

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The euro stabilized against the U.S. dollar Tuesday and EUR/USD saw a small rebound towards 1.1880.  If the pair is able to hold above 1.18 in short-term time frames, we may see a rise towards 1.1950 and possibly even 1.20.

GBP/USD on the other side, saw a correction towards 1.38 and it will be interesting whether that support area holds. Falling below 1.38, a next lower support is seen at 1.3750.

The FOMC meeting minutes today at 19:00 UTC may spur some volatility in USD crosses but we do not expect the minutes to serve as a catalyst for big moves. The Fed’s March rate decision came and went without any significant change as monetary policy is kept on hold.

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Prepare For Corrections Around U.S. CPI And FOMC Minutes

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar continued its recent weakness ahead of today’s U.S. CPI numbers. Subsequently, the EUR/USD was accompanied by a bullish tilt and rose towards 1.2380. Long traders in the euro were thus able to book a good profit by trading our long entry.

It will now be interesting for traders of the EUR/USD as the currency pair could be primed for a technical breakout. If the euro rises above 1.2370/80 we see chances of an extended upward move towards 1.2430. A significant break below 1.2350, however, could shift the short-term bias in favor of the bears with lower targets at 1.2330 and 1.2310. A break below 1.23/1.2290 could even alter the current sentiment from bullish to bearish.

The British pound stabilized above 1.4150 against the dollar and now faces the 1.42-barrier. A break above 1.4225 could lead to further strength towards 1.4270. Bears in the GBP/USD should, however, pay attention to a significant break below 1.4080, which could drive the pair towards 1.4025.

Today, the focus will return to economic data and the outlook for U.S. consumer prices (due for release at 12:30 UTC). Later in the day we have the FOMC minutes scheduled for release, so there could be some volatile movements around these releases. Bear in mind that the Federal Reserve is optimistic concerning further rate hikes this year, so the minutes could underline that positive outlook which would be dollar-positive. In other words, prepare for corrective movements around the CPI and FOMC release.

Apart from U.S. data, sterling traders will watch the U.K.’s Industrial Production numbers due for release at 8:30 UTC, while euro traders will listen to a speech of ECB President Mario Draghi at 11:00 UTC.

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Can FOMC Minutes Fuel Demand For Dollars?

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar’s relief rally has lost some momentum with both EUR/USD and GBP/USD heading upwards. From a technical perspective it is noteworthy that the important resistance levels in both major currency pairs are still unbroken, at least for now. The greenback may receive attraction ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes which are scheduled for release today at 18:00 UTC. Bearing in mind that the Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates one more time this year followed by another three hikes next year, the minutes should confirm the hawkish outlook. While this alone is dollar positive we have to consider that a December rate hike has been largely priced in by the markets. Thus, the minutes could possibly be a non-event for traders today but let us be surprised.

On the flipside, the euro received some support from Catalonia’s president Carles Puigdemont who stepped back from an immediate declaration of independence from Spain. He said he would “suspend” the referendum result for a period of some weeks for dialogue with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s administration. The euro rose towards its resistance area at 1.1830-40 but as long as that barrier remains unbroken, we expect the euro to drop back towards 1.1775 and possible even 1.17.

The British pound touched the lower bound of its current resistance zone ranging from 1.3250 to 1.3220. In short-term time frames we see the cable formatting a potential double top pattern which could predict upcoming bearish momentum, provided that the cable remains below 1.3230. A break below 1.3175 could reignite bearish momentum driving the pair towards 1.3130.

Apart from the FOMC minutes there are no major drivers in the market today. Let us wait to be surprised.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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