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Überreagierten die Märkte auf die Inflationsdaten der letzten Woche?

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Willkommen zu einer neuen Handelswoche. Die Risikobereitschaft hat sich am Markt verbessert, nachdem es Anzeichen für eine Abkühlung der Inflation in den USA und die Aussicht auf eine weniger hawkische Haltung der Federal Reserve gab. Der U.S. Dollar schwächte sich gegenüber anderen Währungen ab. Allerdings könnten die Märkte die Inflationsdaten der letzten Woche überbewertet haben, denn ein paar Rückgänge der Inflation bedeuten nicht gleich, dass der Inflationsdruck endgültig vorbei ist und die Fed sofort von einer falkenhaften zu einer taubenhaften Haltung übergehen kann. Die aktuelle Risikobereitschaft könnte daher verfrüht sein und somit könnte das Aufwärtspotenzial im EUR/USD und GBP/USD begrenzt sein.

Was das britische Pfund betrifft, so wird das Vereinigte Königreich am Mittwoch seine Inflationsdaten veröffentlichen.

GBP/USD

Der Stimmungsumschwung am Markt und der starke Ausverkauf des Dollars kamen dem Pfund zugute und ließen es über 1.16 und weiter bis zur Widerstandszone bei 1.17-1.19 steigen. Sterling Bullen sollten jedoch vorsichtig sein. In dieser Woche stehen im Vereinigten Königreich Beschäftigungs- und Inflationsdaten an, was das Pfund anfällig macht.

Aus technischer Sicht ist das Paar überkauft, wobei sich die aktuelle Widerstandszone von 1.17 bis 1.19 erstreckt. Wir gehen momentan davon aus, dass weitere Kursgewinne auf maximal $1.1940 begrenzt sein werden. Das wahrscheinlichste Szenario ist unserer Meinung nach eine Korrektur in Richtung 1.15/1.1450.

EUR/USD

Spekulationen auf eine geringere Zinserhöhung der Fed im Dezember könnten das Währungspaar in den kommenden Wochen über Wasser halten. Das Paar ist jedoch überkauft, was es anfällig für eine Korrektur in Richtung der Paritätsmarke macht. Ein bullischer Ausbruch über 1.0370 könnte hingegen eine bullische Ausweitung in Richtung 1.06 ermöglichen.

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Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

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U.S. CPI In Focus

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The midterm election results are still unknown. Republicans are headed toward control of the U.S. House, but by smaller margins than forecast while the race for Senate continued. The U.S. dollar ended yesterday’s trading day slightly stronger against its counterparts.

Today all eyes will turn to the October inflation data, due for release at 13:30 UTC. This report will heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s rate hike path as it helps to determine the size of the Fed’s tightening next month and where rates will peak. A lower reading will surely boost risk appetite with a weakening dollar. A higher-than-expected outcome, however, will strengthen the greenback on the back of risk aversion.

GBP/USD: Technically, we see chances in favor of the bears since the cable refrained from a climb above 1.16. Only a significant break above 1.16 could heighten the picture in favor of the bulls.

EUR/USD: The euro reversed shy of 1.01, formatting a double-top pattern that suggest upcoming bearish momentum. If CPI data comes in higher-than-forecast the double-top- pattern will be played out. In the positive case of lower U.S. inflation, the euro could break above 1.01 and head for a test of 1.0180.

We wish you all good trades for today!

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U.S. Midterm Elections: Tight Race

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The U.S. dollar weakened against other counterparts while investors await results from the U.S. midterm elections. Early tallies showed the outcome will be closer than expected. For the dollar to find support the Democrats need to keep control of both the House and the Senate.

EUR/USD

The euro traded around the parity level and any price breakouts either above 1.01 or below 0.99 will attract our attention. Above 1.01 a higher target will be at 1.0180. Below 0.9870 a lower target will be at 0.98.

GBP/USD

As long as the cable remains below 1.16, we favor the downtrend with a next lower target seen at 1.1250. Above 1.1650 however, we will pencil in a higher target at 1.1850.

Our trading ideas for today 9/11/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0090

Short @ 1.0040

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.1565

Short @ 1.1520

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 13660

Short @ 13560

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC,  SL 25

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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U.S. Dollar Halted Loss Ahead Of Midterm Elections

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The U.S. dollar halted its recent loss as investors awaited the midterm elections. The potential gridlock in government has been historically good for U.S. stocks.

EUR/USD

The euro traded around the parity level and any price breakouts either above 1.01 or below 0.99 will attract our attention. Above 1.01 a higher target will be at 1.0180. Below 0.9870 a lower target will be at 0.98.

GBP/USD

As long as the cable remains below 1.16, we favor the downtrend with a next lower target seen at 1.1250. Above 1.1650 however, we will pencil in a higher target at 1.1850.

Our trading ideas for today 8/11/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0040

Short @ 0.9985

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.1510

Short @ 1.1460

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 13560

Short @ 13510

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC,  SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Euro und Pfund mit Rückenwind zum Wochenstart

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Der U.S. Arbeitsmarktbericht vom Freitag bot ein gemischtes Bild mit 261.000 neuen Arbeitsplätzen im Oktober und einer höheren Arbeitslosenquote von 3,7 Prozent. Der Stellenzuwachs war der geringste seit Dezember 2020, und angesichts der Tatsache, dass die aggressive Straffung der US-Notenbank die Beschäftigung belastet, ist es nur logisch, dass der Dollar als Reaktion auf den Bericht fiel. Händler gehen davon aus, dass die US-Notenbank im Dezember ihre Straffung auf 50 Basispunkte reduzieren wird.

Am 8. November könnten die Zwischenwahlen in den USA dazu führen, dass eine andere Partei den Kongress kontrolliert. Die Auswirkungen des Ergebnisses auf den Dollar dürften jedoch begrenzt sein.

Das Augenmerk der Märkte richtet sich dann auf den Verbraucherpreisindex für Oktober, der am Donnerstag veröffentlicht wird. Eine schwächere Lesung würde wahrscheinlich zu mehr Risikobereitschaft führen. Dies könnte dem Dollar Auftrieb geben, da Spekulationen bestehen, dass die Fed ihren Zinserhöhungspfad lockern könnte.

Das britische Pfund fiel um 2 Prozent, nachdem die Währungshüter der Bank von England den Leitzins auf 3 Prozent angehoben und davor gewarnt hatten, dass dem Vereinigten Königreich ein langwieriger Abschwung bevorsteht. Lediglich der gemischte Arbeitsmarktbericht vom Freitag trug dazu bei, dass sich das Pfund aufgrund des schwächer werdenden Dollars von seinem Tiefstand erholte. Allerdings könnte das Pfund Sterling für weitere Verluste anfällig sein, da die Banken einen Rückgang unter 1,10 $ bis zum Jahresende vorhersagen.

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Wir wünschen gute Trades!

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

Copyright © 2022 MaiMarFX.

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Profitable Start

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Friday’s U.S. payrolls report offered a mixed picture with 261k new jobs in October and a higher unemployment rate of 3.7 percent. The payrolls advance was the least since December 2020 and given that the Federal Reserves’ aggressive tightening is weighing on employment, it’s only logical that the dollar fell in response to the report. Traders are leaning toward a downshift in the Fed’s pace of tightening to 50bp in December.

On November 8, the U.S. mid-term elections could lead to a change in which party controls Congress. However, the result’s impact to the dollar might be limited.

The market’s focus then shifts to the October consumer price index (CPI) due on Thursday. A lower reading would likely encourage more risk-taking. This could buoy the dollar’s counterparts on speculation the Fed could ease its rate-hiking path.

The British pound fell 2 percent as the Bank of England lifted rates to 3 percent and warned that the U.K. faces a protracted slowdown. Only Friday’s mixed payrolls report helped the pound to recover from lower levels on the back of a weakening dollar. However, sterling might be vulnerable to further losses with banks predicting a fall below $ 1.10 by the end of the year.

Our trading ideas for today 7/11/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 0.9960 Hit TP

Short @ 0.9915

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.1330 Hit TP

Short @ 1.1290

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 13480 Hit TP

Short @ 13430

Settings for all trades today:  SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Market Overreacted To Powell’s Comments

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It happened as expected: The Federal Reserve raised rates by 75bp and the market misinterpreted this month’s hike as a pivot towards a dovish monetary policy stance and thus sent the U.S. dollar tumbling. This is a classic market overreaction towards a potential monetary policy shift when the current guidance is already priced in. Caution is however warranted as we could be still far from the peak.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that another big increase is possible and projected rates to be at 3.8 percent in 2023, a projection that is above market expectations. Yet investors interpreted Powell’s comments that rate hikes will slow. The key phrase was that the pace of tightening would slow at some point but that didn’t flag a pivot to lower rates or even a pause, according to Fed watchers.

However, both euro and cable overshot following Powell’s comments. The best performer was the pound sterling that broke above the descending trendline and headed towards 1.22.

We believe that gains in the GBP/USD could be limited to 1.2250 as the pair entered overbought territory.

There were no breakouts in the EUR/USD which remains in its current trading range between 1.03 and 1.01.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Will The U.S. Dollar Retreat On A 75bp Rate Hike?

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It’s the Federal Reserve’s decision day and traders brace for a 75bp rate increase. The market’s key question is whether the Fed is nearing a projected 3.4 percent rate peak around year-end before Fed policy makers can start easing again to tackle the risk of recession. We bear however in mind that the market is often ahead of itself which is why talking about easing monetary policy could be premature at this point.

Nonetheless, the growing risk of a recession may force Fed policy makers to deliver smaller rate increases towards the end of this year. A shift in the Fed’s forward guidance may produce headwinds for the U.S. dollar in the coming months. So, we may see the greenback struggling to hold onto its gains even when the Fed hikes as expected.

In other words, a 75bp rate hike may not be a bullish catalyst for the dollar if additional rate hikes this year are not signaled. And the chance of a 100bp rate hike is at only 13 percent.

Given the summer lull we do not expect market movements to be extraordinarily large.

 

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We wish you good trades!

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Daily Forex And DAX Signals 26/7/22

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Daily Forex And DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0225

Short @ 1.0180

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2065

Short @ 1.2040

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 13220

Short @ 13140

 

Monthly results 2022:

June 2022: +333 pips

May 2022: +172 pips

April 2022: +111 pips

March 2022: +689 pips

February 2022: +531 pips

January 2022: +766 pips

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

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Daily Forex And DAX Signals 19/7/22

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Daily Forex & DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0160

Short @ 1.0110

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.1980

Short @ 1.1940

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 12910

Short @ 12830

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Monthly results 2022:

June 2022: +333 pips

May 2022: +172 pips

April 2022: +111 pips

March 2022: +689 pips

February 2022: +531 pips

January 2022: +766 pips

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

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