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Euro Trends Downwards While Pound Remains Stable

Dear Traders,

The euro depreciated against the U.S. dollar and fell below 1.07 while the British pound has shrugged off the U.K.’s process of leaving the European Union. One reason for the pound’s resilience is the fact that an expected slowdown of the U.K. economy has not yet materialized. Inflation seems to be accelerating, paving the way for higher interest rates while investors expect the U.K.’s negotiation talks with the EU to be constructive.

The pound tested the 1.25-level but for the time being, it was unable to hold above that level. A break above 1.2530 could encourage sterling bulls to push the pound for a test of 1.2560. Above 1.26 however, we expect sterling to head for a test of 1.27. A current support is seen at 1.2425. Sterling traders will watch the U.K. GDP report scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC.

The euro knew only one direction on Thursday: downwards. The single currency came under pressure following a report that European Central Bank officials said they are cautious about changing their monetary policy any time soon. Given that dovish message and the slowdown in German consumer prices, there was no reason for euro bulls to justify higher price levels. The EUR/USD could even extend its losses provided that Eurozone CPI data, due for release at 9:00 UTC, comes in weaker-than-expected. Euro traders should also keep an eye on the German Employment report scheduled for release at 7:55 UTC. In short-term time frames we expected the currency pair to trade between 1.06 and 1.0715.

We wish you a wonderful weekend.

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Euro And Cable: Sideways Movement Continues

Dear Traders,

Despite better than-expected U.S. economic data the greenback refused to trade higher versus its major peers – this was at least the case in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Having already fully discounted a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, investors will now wait for fresh hints about the future rate hike path before entering new long-term positions.

The euro traded sideways and, as expected, the currency pair remained confined to a trading range of nearly 100 pips. While the support at 1.0560 is still intact the euro might tend to test the 1.0715-resistance level, before resuming its overall downtrend. However, if the euro is unable to trade above 1.0670 we will shift our focus to a renewed break below 1.0580.

The cable remained stuck between 1.2530 and 1.2385. A break above 1.2530 may send the pound slightly higher towards 1.2550 but for the pound to rise towards higher targets this resistance level must be significantly breached in order to ignite fresh bullish potential. On the downside we will keep an eye on a break below 1.24.

The Bank of England publishes the results of its annual bank stress tests alongside its Financial Stability Report at 7:00 UTC. Following the report, BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, so sterling traders should keep an eye on the price development as the pound might be vulnerable to volatile swings.

From the Eurozone we have the German Unemployment Report scheduled for release at 8:55 UTC, followed by Eurozone CPI data at 10:00 UTC. Chances are that these reports will have a positive impact on the euro, pushing it towards 1.0715. Furthermore, ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Madrid at 12:30 UTC.

Last but not least, it should be worth watching the release of upcoming U.S. data, such as the ADP report due at 13:15 UTC, PCE numbers at 13:30 UTC and the Fed’s Beige Book at 19:00 UTC.

So it could be an interesting trading day with hopefully profitable trading chances.

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U.S. Dollar Slumped as Fed September Rate Hike Seems Unlikely

Dear Traders,

The euro and British pound rebounded strongly against the U.S. dollar after bearish momentum failed to drive both currency pairs significantly lower. Ultimately, short-traders’ efforts did not pay off and we suffered losses with yesterday’s short-entries.

The Federal Reserve is more upbeat about the economic outlook, saying that near-term risks to the U.S. economy have diminished and that job gains were strong, the FOMC statement showed. However, there was no indication of the specific timing of the next potential rate hike and with Esther George being the lone hawk, it has not been enough for the greenback to maintain it strength. Consequently, traders gave up on dollar long positions as they see only little chance of a rate hike in September. The market is now pricing in a 50-50 chance of a rate increase in December.

The euro rose towards 1.1080 on the back of broad based dollar weakness. We now see a next resistance around the 1.11-level which could limit the gains in the EUR/USD. If the euro breaks above 1.1130 it could head for a renewed test of 1.1160. However, if prices fall back below 1.10 we will favor a bearish stance.

The British pound marked a strong support at 1.3060 from where it reversed. Given the recent sideways trend we will now focus on an upper bound at 1.33, whereas the 1.3060-level is seen as the lower bound of the cable’s trading range. Above 1.3350 the sentiment may shift in favor of the bulls but we expect short-term gains to be limited until 1.3410/50.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. The German Unemployment report (due at 7:55 UTC) may have a short-term impact on the euro but the price action will depend on risk appetite.

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U.S. Dollar Whipsawed On FOMC

Dear Traders,

Yesterday was none of our favorite trading days with the U.S. dollar showing a whipsaw performance after the FOMC statement failed to provide clear signals on potential tightening in June. One man’s joy is another man’s sorrow: The market’s response to the central bank’s statement has probably been the most positive scenario for the Fed, as policy makers want to avoid overreactions in the price development. For traders, however, it was rather a struggle against choppy swings and fake-outs. We therefore suffered losses instead of benefiting from the volatile fluctuations.

The statement came in somewhat more hawkish, showing that policy makers are less concerned about global risks but it did not provide any hints for a rate hike in June. The greenback whipsawed in response on the unconvincing statement. With still more than six weeks to go before the next Fed meeting in June the focus in the near-term will be on inflation and labor market data from the U.S.

Today, we have the German Unemployment report scheduled for release at 7:55 UTC, followed by the German Consumer Price at 12:00 UTC. If data disappoint the euro could weaken.

Furthermore, the U.S. first-quarter GDP report is due for release at 12:30 UTC and in case of any surprises, the USD may react strongly.

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Euro and Sterling Rose Against The Greenback

Dear Traders,

The euro and British pound traded higher against the greenback Monday. The best performing currency pair was the cable, which experienced a short squeeze and broke through all recent resistance-levels. A next resistance is seen at 1.4470/75 and if sterling is able to break above that level, we may see a test of 1.45. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the U.K. referendum, which is possible as early as June, the risk is to the downside for GBP/USD. Current support levels are seen at 1.4350, 1.4310, 1.4240 and 1.4180.

The EUR/USD flirted with the 1.09-barrier  but as long as there is no sustained break above 1.0915/25, the euro may drop back towards 1.0840 and 1.0810. On the upper side, the 1.0955/60-level remains in focus and euro-bulls should wait for prices above that level.

Meanwhile, ECB President Draghi reiterated the ECB’s plan to review its stimulus program in March and thus confirmed its dovish tilt. The euro is therefore more vulnerable to losses going into the next monetary policy meeting in March.

The German Unemployment report is scheduled for release at 8:55 GMT which could have a short-term impact on the euro if numbers surprise to the upside.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on the U.K. Construction PMI, due for release at 9:30 GMT.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Euro In A Waiting Mode – Cable Found Support At 1.50

Dear Traders,

The recent decline in the British pound came to a temporary halt after a short dip below the 1.50-level. As we noted in yesterday’s analysis, the 1.50-level will be important to watch this week and as long as this support remains intact, sterling bulls may push GBP for a test of 1.5130/50.

The EUR/USD appears to be in a waiting mode ahead of the ECB policy decision and there was only little consistency in the euro’s performance yesterday. The 1.06-mark acts as a current resistance for the currency pair. With a break above 1.0620, the focus will turn to higher targets at 1.0640 and 1.0660. Nevertheless, the euro is likely to favor a bearish stance going into Thursday’s big event.

What will be important today?

The German employment report is due for release at 8:55 GMT, but the impact on the euro could be limited as the market is focused on the ECB. Sterling traders should pay attention to the speech of BoE Governor Mark Carney, who is due to speak at 9:00 GMT. Despite a healthy growth of the U.K. economy, BoE officials have highlighted concerns about parts of the U.K. financial system. Carney’s comments could therefore have a significant impact on the GBP’s further direction.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release at 15:00 GMT. Any positive surprises are likely to reinforce dollar buying.

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Will today’s economic data push the euro towards $1.15?

Dear Traders,

the U.S. dollar traded lower against the euro and British Pound, as a result of a “patient” Federal Reserve. The Fed has made it clear that there is no rush to raise rates in the next couple of months and also the Eurozone’s concerns about a Greek default are off the table, at least for the short term.

Yesterday afternoon, ECB President Mario Draghi expressed optimism when he said that stimulus starts to a have positive impact on growth. His comments suggest that the ECB may no longer be looking to increase stimulus in the near term.

On the bottom line, there are chances that the euro is prime for a test of 1.15.

While the euro continued to trade sideways within narrow ranges, the British Pound broke above 1.55. We expect further strength up to 1.5585. With a significant break above 1.56 sterling could make its way towards 1.5750.

Today, there is a bunch of important economic data scheduled for release. A decline in U.S. Consumer Prices and Durable Goods Orders could lead to further losses in the USD.

9:55 EUR German Unemployment Data

10:30 UK GDP

14:30 USA Consumer Prices & Durable Goods Orders

timezone: UTC+1

We wish you a good trading day!

Daily Forex Signals:

EUR/USD

Long @  1.1387                   SL           25           TP 20, 50

Short @ 1.1335                   SL           25           TP 30 -40

GBP/USD

Long @  1.5565                   SL           25           TP 20, 40

Short @ 1.5490                   SL           25           TP 20, 40

Daily Signal- performance in pips:

January 2015: EUR/USD: +240 pips, GBP/USD: +200 pips

December 2014: EUR/USD: +405 pips, GBP/USD: +230 pips

November 2014: EUR/USD: + 135 pips, GBP/USD: + 190 pips

October 2014: EUR/USD: + 255 pips, GBP/USD: +390 pips

September 2014: EUR/USD: + 336 pips, GBP/USD: + 424 pips

 

Signal success rate: EUR/USD: 69 %, GBP/USD: 65 %

February 2015

  • EUR/USD: +320  pips
  • GBP/USD: +115  pips

 

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Please be advised that we are not registered as a forex broker-dealer or an investment adviser. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice.

Our daily signals are neither an offer nor a recommendation to buy or sell any of the currency pairs EUR/USD or GBP/USD. The signals are purely hypothetical and have only been prepared for informational and educational purpose and are not intended to be used as a complete source for any trading decision.

Trading may involve significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, performance strategies, prices, charts or other information are not necessarily predictive of any particular result and do not constitute advice. Past performance is no indication of future results.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

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