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Wann die Fed anfangen könnte eine Straffung zu signalisieren – allerdings nicht heute

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Der Forex Markt schien sich zu Wochenbeginn eine Verschnaufpause zu gönnen und Marktakteure hielten sich im Vorfeld der heutigen Federal Reserve Entscheidung zurück. Folglich gab es für FX Trader nichts zu holen, doch dies könnte sich eventuell heute ändern denn Trader bereiten sich auf erhöhte Volatilität rund um das Fed Statement vor.

Es wird erwartet, dass die Federal Reserve verkünden wird, dass mit einer Reduzierung der monatlichen Wertpapierkäufe zwar noch vor Jahresende begonnen wird, diese jedoch in den nächsten Monaten unangetastet bleiben werden.

Nichtsdestotrotz ist das wahrscheinlichste Szenario, dass die heutige FOMC Entscheidung ein ereignisloses Event am Markt darstellen wird, denn Fed Präsident Jerome Powell wird heute wohl kaum auf den Zeitplan für zukünftige Straffungen hinweisen. Die Wirtschaftsdaten der USA haben gerade einmal an Fahrt aufgenommen und der U.S. Treasury Markt hat sich beruhigt, somit wäre eine Handlung auf dem heutigen Treffen zu früh. Doch wenn die Erholung der U.S. Wirtschaft weiter so voranschreitet, dann könnte die Fed bald ein Signal setzen.

In dem unwahrscheinlichen Fall eines hawkischen Signals während Powells Pressekonferenz, oder sollte er jegliche Hinweise zum Straffungsfahrplan verkünden, dann bekommen wir eine starke Marktreaktion zu sehen mit einem steigenden U.S. Dollar. Dennoch wird nicht erwartet, dass die Fed der Bank von Kanada Folge leistet, welche den Markt letzte Woche mit einer falkenhaften Neigung überraschte.

Was den geldpolitischen Straffungsrhythmus angeht, so rechnen die meisten Ökonomen mit einer Straffung im ersten Quartal des nächsten Jahres, wonach die Fed ab Juli bei ihrer halbjährlichen Erklärung anfangen könnte den Markt auf einen solchen Schritt vorzubereiten.

EUR/USD: Das Paar verblieb in einer engen Spanne, was aktuell die Chancen auf Kursausbrüche zu beiden Seiten erhöht. Damit die Bullendynamik an Fahrt gewinnt, bedürfte es einem erneuten Ausbruch über 1.2115 oder auf der Unterseite, einem Test der aktuellen Unterstützungszonen bei 1.20 oder 1.19. Kann das Paar die 1.2110-Barriere nicht überwinden, so stehen die Chancen zugunsten der Bären mit dem Fokus auf die Support-Zone bei 1.1950-1.19.

GBP/USD: Der Cable konnte in keine Richtung an Dynamik gewinnen und verblieb somit in einer Seitwärtshandelsspanne zwischen 1.3930 und 1.3850. Fällt das Paar unterhalb von 1.3850, so richten wir unseren Fokus auf ein tieferes Ziel bei 1.38. Ein Bruch unterhalb von 1.3770 könnte sogar die Tür für eine tiefere Korrektur in Richtung von 1.3670 öffnen. Sterling Bullen auf der anderen Seite werden auf einen klaren Bruch oberhalb von 1.3930 und ferner 1.3960 warten müssen um von einem höheren Ziel bei 1.4070 auszugehen.

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Oversold Pound Sterling Could Rebound

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Welcome to a new trading week.

Euro bulls took a breather on Friday after the shared currency had the best week against the U.S. dollar so far this year. While the U.S. and Asia are already on a solid recovery path, there is a belief that Europe will be successful in immunizing the major part of its population within few months.

While Europe’s vaccine campaign might be getting back on track, giving reason for optimism, the EU’s recovery is still on shaky ground.

EUR/USD

Looking at the weekly chart we remember that the euro could be formatting a huge head-shoulders-pattern, giving that the resistance levels at 1.20 and 1.21 remain unbroken. In other words, if euro bulls are unable to overcome the 1.21-barrier the focus will remain on a break below 1.16 which could result in steep losses towards 1.12.

The British pound experienced a sell-off last week on the back of concerns relating to AstraZeneca Plc’s shot, which the U.K. is heavily dependent on. Hedge funds unwound bullish positions in the pound. Despite the latest correction, April is historically a supportive month for the pound and giving the potential strength of the U.K.’s recovery there is room for a resumption of the pound’s overall uptrend.

GBP/USD

Looking at longer time frames we see the pair reaching oversold territory, increasing the chances for a rebound. We see two crucial support zones which could limit bearish momentum in the currency pair. If 1.3670 breaks significantly, the next crucial support is seen at 1.36 from where bullish momentum can accelerate. Based on the short-term downtrend channel the next support would be at around 1.3520 but giving the oversold situation we anticipate earlier gains and will pay attention to a break of the lower resistance at 1.3850.

This week the focus will be on the U.S. CPI report Tuesday while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could reiterate its dovish rhetoric during his moderated Q&A on Wednesday.

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GBP/USD Vulnerable To Further Losses

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reassured investors that the Fed is committed to a dovish policy that fosters a sustainable recovery from the pandemic. As for inflation concerns, Powell said the central bank has tools to curb any inflation pressures and would react if inflation expectations started “moving persistently and materially” above tolerable levels. The anti-risk U.S. dollar traded lower on the back of Powell’s reiteration of the Fed’s ultra-accommodative stance.

EUR/USD: The euro moved slightly higher on the back of a weakening U.S. dollar but bulls failed to push the pair above 1.1930. We still favor the short-term upward movement with an extension of gains towards 1.1950 but if the euro drops below 1.1860, chances change in favor of the bears with lower targets seen at 1.18 and 1.1780.

GBP/USD: The technical picture hasn’t changed materially but chances remain slightly in favor of the bears. Below 1.3715 bears could attempt to test the 1.3695-level but the main focus is on the March low at 1.3670 and a break of that support would open the door to further losses. Bulls, however, may wait for a breakout above 1.3760 in order to anticipate a test of 1.38.

We wish everyone a beautiful weekend.

We wish you good trades!

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Will The Fed Signal Faster Rate Hikes?

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The U.S. dollar was mostly stronger versus other peers ahead of the Federal Reserve policy statement. The global recovery gains traction and investors eager to see whether the Fed will come up with a new guidance on interest rates and upbeat economic projections. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has promised to maintain an accommodative monetary policy but the central bank’s quarterly economic forecasts today will show how many of the Fed members share his commitment. Alongside their expected policy path, the Fed will also release its first dot-plot of the year, offering their point of view on expected interest rates in the future.

The main focus will be on any unexpected findings on the dot-plot such as one rate hike in 2023. If the Fed signals that rates could rise earlier than previously forecasts, the U.S. dollar will rally. If there is however no change of the Fed’s guidance on interest rates or asset purchases, the dollar could give up some of its recent gains.

Last but not least we will have the Fed’s press conference where Powell may push back against the rise in yields and may also downplays the significance of the dot-plot projections.

Regardless of the outcome, traders will brace for higher volatility and larger market moves and we hope that this risk-event will not be as disappointing for traders as the latest ECB decision where the market’s reaction was muted.

The FOMC statement is scheduled for 18:00 UTC, followed by the Fed’s press conference 30 minutes later.

EUR/USD: We focus on a price range between 1.2050 and 1.18. Above 1.2060, a higher target is seen at 1.2180. Below 1.1750 the euro may extend its slide towards a lower target at 1.16.

GBP/USD: The cable traded recently sideways between 1.40 and 1.38. A renewed break above 1.4010 could push the pair higher towards 1.42 and 1.4340. On the bottom side, we will pay attention to a breakout below 1.3770 that could lead to further losses towards 1.36 and 1.35.

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The Fed is Unlikely to Surprise the Market

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The British pound rose to a high of 1.3750 against the U.S. dollar and analysts predict that sterling will continue to outperform against other peers. One of the reasons for the pound’s strength is the vaccine rollout in the U.K. which is going better than almost anywhere else. While vaccine rollouts elsewhere are lagging, Britain has immunized around five times as many people as a proportion of its population than the European Union. Pound traders bet on a sterling comeback on the back of optimism that the economy will find its footing faster than other peers. Some analysts even predict that the pound could advance 20 percent against the euro.

Looking at the GBP/USD chart, chances are in favor of further bullish momentum with a higher target at 1.3850. For bearish momentum to gain traction we would need to see the pound declining again below 1.3630.

The EUR/USD remained trading within a relatively narrow price range between 1.2176 and 1.2107. We will now focus on price breakouts either above 1.2220 or below 1.2115 that could reinvigorate fresh momentum.

Today the focus turns to the Federal Reserve policy decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to strike a cautious tone when it comes to curbing the Fed’s massive asset purchases, even though the economic outlook has brightened further thanks to the expected big budgetary boost from U.S. President Joe Biden. Even if some market participants may hope for a change in the Fed’s ultra-dovish policy stance, the most likely scenario is that the central bank maintains the current guidance indicating that monetary policy will remain ultra-loose for at least another year.

In other words, we do not expect any surprises at today’s decision but if the Fed sends a relatively more hawkish message, the U.S. dollar will strengthen in response.

We wish you good trades!

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Focus Turns To The Fed: Dot-Plot To Show 4 Rate Hikes This Year?

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Dear Traders,

This trading week has been, so far, not only volatile but also very profitable for traders. Yesterday, we saw the U.S. dollar gaining back ground against the euro and British pound ahead of today’s highly anticipated FOMC decision. Thus, short traders were able to book a good profit.

The pound slipped below 1.40 after U.K. inflation data came in worse-than-expected but losses were limited due to hopes that tomorrow’s Bank of England statement will be hawkish.

The euro sold off after the German and Eurozone ZEW Surveys fell well below expectations.

Today, all eyes will be on the Fed decision due at 18:00 UTC followed by Jerome Powell’s news conference 30 minutes later. Market participants are curious whether the central bank will lift its projections for the pace of policy tightening this year. While a 25-basis-point rate is almost certain the focus will turn to updated economic projections (SEP – Summary of Economic Projections) and the Fed’s dot plot forecast. If the dot plot shows monetary policy makers favoring 4 rate hikes this year, the dollar will rise. Anything else could disappoint the market’s high expectations and could send the dollar tumbling.

While today’s Fed decision will be one of the most important decisions in years, it does not mean that it will be market-moving in terms of profitable trading opportunities. As usual, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenarios and will update traders (subscribers) about all current and pending trades on our live signal page.

We wish you profitable trades for today!

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Will The Dollar’s Strength Continue?

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar received a boost from hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who conducted his first congressional testimony on Tuesday. The Fed Chair noted that his outlook for the economy has strengthened along with his confidence on inflation getting stronger. Stronger economic growth may prompt policy makers to rethink their plan for three interest rate increases in 2018. These optimistic comments probably led to the market to believe that a fourth rate hike might be in the cards, even though Powell did not mention a number for hikes.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD was hit hard by Powell’s testimony, falling below 1.2275 and heading towards its important support around 1.22. Whether we will see a sustained break below 1.2160 will now hinge on the appetite for dollars and today’s Eurozone data.

The German Labor Market Numbers are scheduled for release at 8:55 UTC followed by the Eurozone Consumer Price Report at 10:00 UTC. If the CPI report comes in weaker than expected, the euro could further fall.

Technically, bears lie in wait for a sustained break below 1.2160 so that the double-top pattern will be played out. Nevertheless, however tempting that bearish pattern might be, traders should also have a look at the oversold situation in the EUR/USD chart, which could become an obstacle for euro bears.

GBP/USD

Compared to the EUR/USD, losses were limited in this pair. The pound found some support around 1.3850 and it seems as if sterling is still struggling to determine a direction in the near-term. Thus, with the cable still trading within a narrow price range, we see a higher likelihood of potential price breakouts now.

If the price breaks out of the symmetrical triangle, we expect larger movements and even more profitable trading opportunities.

From the U.S., we have the GDP report scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC today.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co