Will The Dollar’s Strength Continue?

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar received a boost from hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who conducted his first congressional testimony on Tuesday. The Fed Chair noted that his outlook for the economy has strengthened along with his confidence on inflation getting stronger. Stronger economic growth may prompt policy makers to rethink their plan for three interest rate increases in 2018. These optimistic comments probably led to the market to believe that a fourth rate hike might be in the cards, even though Powell did not mention a number for hikes.


The EUR/USD was hit hard by Powell’s testimony, falling below 1.2275 and heading towards its important support around 1.22. Whether we will see a sustained break below 1.2160 will now hinge on the appetite for dollars and today’s Eurozone data.

The German Labor Market Numbers are scheduled for release at 8:55 UTC followed by the Eurozone Consumer Price Report at 10:00 UTC. If the CPI report comes in weaker than expected, the euro could further fall.

Technically, bears lie in wait for a sustained break below 1.2160 so that the double-top pattern will be played out. Nevertheless, however tempting that bearish pattern might be, traders should also have a look at the oversold situation in the EUR/USD chart, which could become an obstacle for euro bears.


Compared to the EUR/USD, losses were limited in this pair. The pound found some support around 1.3850 and it seems as if sterling is still struggling to determine a direction in the near-term. Thus, with the cable still trading within a narrow price range, we see a higher likelihood of potential price breakouts now.

If the price breaks out of the symmetrical triangle, we expect larger movements and even more profitable trading opportunities.

From the U.S., we have the GDP report scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC today.

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