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GBP/USD: 1.36 – A Make-It Or Break-It Level

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The best performer on Monday was the British pound which rebounded and provided buyers in the GBP/USD a good gain. It will now be interesting whether the 1.3650-hurdle can be taken out. We will watch out for a break above 1.3670-80 in order to anticipate further gains towards 1.3750 and 1.38. On the downside, a renewed break below 1.3570 could see a continuation of the cable’s steeper decline with a lower target at 1.3350.

The EUR/USD was flat between 1.1640 and 1.16. Buyers should watch out for a renewed break above 1.1630 in order to buy euros towards 1.1670. A break below 1.1580 on the other side could increase chances for accelerated bearish momentum.

The DAX traded choppily between 15180 and 15000. A break below 14950 could see a dip towards 14900 whereas a rise above 15300 may prompt bulls for a test of 15500.

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Oversold Pound Sterling Could Rebound

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Welcome to a new trading week.

Euro bulls took a breather on Friday after the shared currency had the best week against the U.S. dollar so far this year. While the U.S. and Asia are already on a solid recovery path, there is a belief that Europe will be successful in immunizing the major part of its population within few months.

While Europe’s vaccine campaign might be getting back on track, giving reason for optimism, the EU’s recovery is still on shaky ground.

EUR/USD

Looking at the weekly chart we remember that the euro could be formatting a huge head-shoulders-pattern, giving that the resistance levels at 1.20 and 1.21 remain unbroken. In other words, if euro bulls are unable to overcome the 1.21-barrier the focus will remain on a break below 1.16 which could result in steep losses towards 1.12.

The British pound experienced a sell-off last week on the back of concerns relating to AstraZeneca Plc’s shot, which the U.K. is heavily dependent on. Hedge funds unwound bullish positions in the pound. Despite the latest correction, April is historically a supportive month for the pound and giving the potential strength of the U.K.’s recovery there is room for a resumption of the pound’s overall uptrend.

GBP/USD

Looking at longer time frames we see the pair reaching oversold territory, increasing the chances for a rebound. We see two crucial support zones which could limit bearish momentum in the currency pair. If 1.3670 breaks significantly, the next crucial support is seen at 1.36 from where bullish momentum can accelerate. Based on the short-term downtrend channel the next support would be at around 1.3520 but giving the oversold situation we anticipate earlier gains and will pay attention to a break of the lower resistance at 1.3850.

This week the focus will be on the U.S. CPI report Tuesday while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could reiterate its dovish rhetoric during his moderated Q&A on Wednesday.

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Euro Depreciates Against Dollar, Pound With A Tailwind

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar experienced a long-needed recovery against most of its major peers at the beginning of this week while the strongest move was seen against the euro. The EUR/USD dropped below 1.20 and extended its slide towards 1.1950. Whether we will see further losses in this pair remains to be seen and hinges on the appetite for dollars ahead of Friday’s U.S. CPI data.

Unlike the euro, the pound sterling was able to stem the decline and rebounded against the greenback after it marked a recent support at 1.3520. Our assumption of a steeper slide following a break below 1.3540 has been shown to be false, at least for now. We still see a higher likelihood of an extended upside swing after a break above 1.3590. However, if the pound falls back below 1.3530 it may be vulnerable for a break below 1.3520. Lets us be surprised.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on important price barriers shown in the table below.

  Resistances Supports
GBP/USD 1.3590

1.3615

1.3650

 1.3520

1.3490

1.3450

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