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Traders Eye NFP Report

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Investors have been buying the dip after weeks of selloff. The U.S. Dollar weakened, pushing other peers above current resistance levels. The DAX broke above 14300 and headed toward 14600.

The focus this week will be on Friday’s U.S. payroll numbers, which are projected to show a smaller advance in May. The Federal Reserve is on track to hike interest rates by 50bp at the next couple of meetings but a continued slowdown in payrolls and wage growth could eventually convince policy makers to slow the pace of tightening after the summer.

DAX – Going for 15000?

The index ended its consolidation and broke above 14300. A sustained break above 14600 could spur bullish momentum towards 15000. The price area around 14200 could now serve as a support.

EUR/USD: The euro traded higher and a further test of 1.08 seems realistic. However, the risk for corrections within the recent straight-lined uptrend remains high with the focus turning to 1.0650.

GBP/USD: The cable attempted to break above 1.2660 but bullish momentum faded. If the pair slips back below 1.2580, we expect a potential correction to deepen with lower targets seen at 1.25 and 1.24.

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More USD Gains On NFP Day?

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The U.S. dollar held a climb ahead of today’s payrolls report, which is scheduled to be released at 12:30 UTC.

While the EUR/USD was little changed Thursday, remaining above 1.1840, we got a bearish break below 1.38 in the GBP/USD. As noted in previous analysis, next lower targets are seen at 1.37 in the cable and at 1.18 in the euro.

Today’s payrolls report will provide a key gauge of economic progress, helping to shape expectations of when the Federal Reserve might start tapering stimulus. A stronger June report could set the tone for a tapering announcement at one of the next FOMC meetings.

The Dollar may tend to strengthen ahead and around the release of NFP data but we bear in mind that low liquidity conditions during the summer months can lead to unbeneficial market situations. Traders should therefore not expect too much and pay attention to their risk assessment.

Have a good weekend.

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Will Payrolls Hurt Or Help The U.S. Dollar?

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Dear Traders,

While Thursday proved to be a volatile trading day, the volatile but choppy swings in the market were not to our liking. Entries were triggered and stopped out due to heightened volatility but there was little follow-through on either side.

The U.S. dollar gained traction ahead of yesterday’s FOMC minutes but the statement did not alter rate hike expectations. While the Fed saw gradual rate hikes as needed given a very strong U.S. economy, some Fed members are concerned about intensified risks around trade policy.

The focus now shifts to the U.S. NFP report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

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NFP Data To Spur USD Strength?

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Dear Traders,

Global trade war fears are back in focus after news that the Trump administration was pursuing the metal tariffs against the EU, Canada and Mexico. While the news has led to a slide in the S&P 500 and Dow, the U.S. dollar received only little attention. The greenback is still seen as the top reserve currency but whether it can hold that title in the future remains an open question.

The euro received a slight boost from updates from Italy that an election is basically off the table. The Italian Five-Star Movement and the League parties have reached a new agreement on a possible coalition government. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte accepted an offer to form a new government with the Eurosceptic Paolo Savona who has been named as EU affairs minister.

Today, all eyes will turn to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report due at 12:30 UTC.  The U.S. economy is expected to have added 190K jobs in May while wages are expected to post modest upticks. An upside surprise in any headline figure of the report could spur the dollar’s strength.

We wish you good trades and a relaxing weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Greenback Strengthens Pre-NFP

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Dear Traders,

Finally, the U.S. dollar returned to its former strength pre-NFP with also EUR/USD joining the downward trend. The euro gave way to the strengthening dollar and thus, EUR/USD dropped below 1.17 after gains were capped at 1.1780.

The main topic in the market was however the fall of the British pound which came under severe downward pressure after chaotic U.K. politics put the country’s outlook on very shaky foundations. The pound came under selling pressure after UK Prime Minister Theresa May put in a disastrous performance at the annual conference of her Conservative Party. Her speech was disrupted by prankster and then by a coughing fit. That disastrous speech weakened her position as PM while the idea of replacing May in the middle of Brexit negotiations is widely viewed with horror. A replacement by Brexit hardliner Boris Johnson could make a deal with the EU harder rather than easier to reach.

The GBP/USD fell below important support-levels at 1.3150 and 1.31 and could now be headed towards a test of 1.30.

Today, all eyes will be on the Non-farm payrolls report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

The U.S. September Employment report is expected to show a weaker reading due to the impact of hurricanes on southern states. Meanwhile, comments from Fed officials reinforced optimism ahead of the jobs report, saying Fed policymakers “pencil in” a rate hike in December and three hikes next year. The priced-in probability of a December rate hike is currently at 75 percent.

If payrolls beat expectations, the greenback will receive a boost and could further rise against the euro and pound.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co