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Bullish Bias

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Welcome to a new trading week.

The DAX surged to a fresh high at 16440 amid other rallies in Gold and Bitcoin. Markets bet on rate cuts and pay not much attention to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who reminds that policymakers are in no hurry to ease interest rates. Traders rather bet the Fed could cut rates as early as March 2024. Powell on Friday noted the central bank is ready to hike further if needed, though policy is “well into restrictive territory.”

This week, most attention will be paid to the U.S. non-farm payrolls data due on Friday.

DAX – Flirting with record highs

After the index broke above 16050, it almost headed straight-lined towards the next target at 16450. Above 16460, the next target will be the record-high at 16533. While we believe bullish momentum could be enough to break above record highs, we note that the index fluctuates within its resistance zone which is why we prepare for pullbacks towards 16200.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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Traders Eye NFP Report

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Investors have been buying the dip after weeks of selloff. The U.S. Dollar weakened, pushing other peers above current resistance levels. The DAX broke above 14300 and headed toward 14600.

The focus this week will be on Friday’s U.S. payroll numbers, which are projected to show a smaller advance in May. The Federal Reserve is on track to hike interest rates by 50bp at the next couple of meetings but a continued slowdown in payrolls and wage growth could eventually convince policy makers to slow the pace of tightening after the summer.

DAX – Going for 15000?

The index ended its consolidation and broke above 14300. A sustained break above 14600 could spur bullish momentum towards 15000. The price area around 14200 could now serve as a support.

EUR/USD: The euro traded higher and a further test of 1.08 seems realistic. However, the risk for corrections within the recent straight-lined uptrend remains high with the focus turning to 1.0650.

GBP/USD: The cable attempted to break above 1.2660 but bullish momentum faded. If the pair slips back below 1.2580, we expect a potential correction to deepen with lower targets seen at 1.25 and 1.24.

We wish you good trades!

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More USD Gains On NFP Day?

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The U.S. dollar held a climb ahead of today’s payrolls report, which is scheduled to be released at 12:30 UTC.

While the EUR/USD was little changed Thursday, remaining above 1.1840, we got a bearish break below 1.38 in the GBP/USD. As noted in previous analysis, next lower targets are seen at 1.37 in the cable and at 1.18 in the euro.

Today’s payrolls report will provide a key gauge of economic progress, helping to shape expectations of when the Federal Reserve might start tapering stimulus. A stronger June report could set the tone for a tapering announcement at one of the next FOMC meetings.

The Dollar may tend to strengthen ahead and around the release of NFP data but we bear in mind that low liquidity conditions during the summer months can lead to unbeneficial market situations. Traders should therefore not expect too much and pay attention to their risk assessment.

Have a good weekend.

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Monthly results 2021:

June 2021: +264 pips

May 2021: +528 pips

April 2021: +278 pips

March 2021: +45 pips

February 2021: +42 pips

January 2021: +472 pips

 

Results 2020:

December 2020: +318 pips

November 2020: +75 pips

October 2020: +432 pips

 

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Will Payrolls Hurt Or Help The U.S. Dollar?

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Dear Traders,

While Thursday proved to be a volatile trading day, the volatile but choppy swings in the market were not to our liking. Entries were triggered and stopped out due to heightened volatility but there was little follow-through on either side.

The U.S. dollar gained traction ahead of yesterday’s FOMC minutes but the statement did not alter rate hike expectations. While the Fed saw gradual rate hikes as needed given a very strong U.S. economy, some Fed members are concerned about intensified risks around trade policy.

The focus now shifts to the U.S. NFP report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

For more information and analysis, sign up for our signal service.

 

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

NFP Data To Spur USD Strength?

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Dear Traders,

Global trade war fears are back in focus after news that the Trump administration was pursuing the metal tariffs against the EU, Canada and Mexico. While the news has led to a slide in the S&P 500 and Dow, the U.S. dollar received only little attention. The greenback is still seen as the top reserve currency but whether it can hold that title in the future remains an open question.

The euro received a slight boost from updates from Italy that an election is basically off the table. The Italian Five-Star Movement and the League parties have reached a new agreement on a possible coalition government. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte accepted an offer to form a new government with the Eurosceptic Paolo Savona who has been named as EU affairs minister.

Today, all eyes will turn to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report due at 12:30 UTC.  The U.S. economy is expected to have added 190K jobs in May while wages are expected to post modest upticks. An upside surprise in any headline figure of the report could spur the dollar’s strength.

We wish you good trades and a relaxing weekend.

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Greenback Strengthens Pre-NFP

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Dear Traders,

Finally, the U.S. dollar returned to its former strength pre-NFP with also EUR/USD joining the downward trend. The euro gave way to the strengthening dollar and thus, EUR/USD dropped below 1.17 after gains were capped at 1.1780.

The main topic in the market was however the fall of the British pound which came under severe downward pressure after chaotic U.K. politics put the country’s outlook on very shaky foundations. The pound came under selling pressure after UK Prime Minister Theresa May put in a disastrous performance at the annual conference of her Conservative Party. Her speech was disrupted by prankster and then by a coughing fit. That disastrous speech weakened her position as PM while the idea of replacing May in the middle of Brexit negotiations is widely viewed with horror. A replacement by Brexit hardliner Boris Johnson could make a deal with the EU harder rather than easier to reach.

The GBP/USD fell below important support-levels at 1.3150 and 1.31 and could now be headed towards a test of 1.30.

Today, all eyes will be on the Non-farm payrolls report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

The U.S. September Employment report is expected to show a weaker reading due to the impact of hurricanes on southern states. Meanwhile, comments from Fed officials reinforced optimism ahead of the jobs report, saying Fed policymakers “pencil in” a rate hike in December and three hikes next year. The priced-in probability of a December rate hike is currently at 75 percent.

If payrolls beat expectations, the greenback will receive a boost and could further rise against the euro and pound.

If you want to know how we trade the payrolls release sign up for our daily signal service.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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NFP Outcome Will Seal The Dollar’s Fate

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Dear Traders,

The BoE’s Super Thursday is behind us and we got what we were looking for: A breakout in GBP/USD. Our forecast of further bearish momentum toward 1.3110 following a break below 1.3190 proved to be correct. Thus, sterling bears were able to pocket a nice gain yesterday. What prompted the pound to decline? The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee voted 6-2 to keep interest rates unchanged but more importantly, policy makers lowered their economic growth projections to 1.7 from 1.9 percent. Furthermore, the BoE cut its forecast for wage growth for 2018 and 2019. The market was betting on a surprise hawkishness but what it got was some uncertainty when Carney expressed concerns about a “smooth transition to a new economic relationship with the EU”. While he also pointed towards some tightening in the next three years, yesterday’s policy statement was interpreted as negative.

The euro favored the upward movement after correcting towards 1.1830. Based on the recent uptrend we generally expect further gains towards 1.1960 and 1.20. A break below 1.1850 however, could send the euro towards its lower support at 1.18.

The pound now faces a crucial support at around 1.31. A significant break below that barrier may result in further bearish momentum towards 1.30.

All eyes will be on the U.S. employment report scheduled for release today at 12:30 UTC. Market participants hope that the NFP report will provide clues on the strength of the U.S. economy and the Fed’s next policy move. So the U.S. Dollar’s fate will depend on the NFP outcome. Let’s be surprised.

If you want to know how we will trade the payrolls, sign up for our daily signal service here.

We would like to inform all subscribers and readers that we will take a summer trading break until end of August. Our signal service and all daily analysis will be resumed in September.  

We wish you a very enjoyable summer.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

All Eyes On NFP Data

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Dear Traders,

It is U.S. jobs day and the May Nonfarm Payrolls report is considered the top event risk this week as it could generate big swings for the U.S. dollar. The greenback’s performance was only modestly affected by yesterday’s solid ADP report and a strong ISM manufacturing report, so traders hope for more profitable swings today. The expectation is for 180K jobs to have been added in May and while a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting on June 13 and 14 is widely expected, investors will read between the lines to assess the economic environment in the U.S. The dollar has been weak throughout the month of May and dollar bulls need a good reason in order to reinvest into the dollar trade.

The first trading day of June has been a challenging one for sterling traders as the cable traded choppily sideways, triggering and eliminating pending orders easily. We hope for more profitable trading opportunities today.

The euro refrained from falling below the 1.12-mark and hold steadily above that threshold. In case of a dip below 1.1190 we will once again shift our focus to the 1.1160-support. Lower barriers are seen at 1.11/1.1080 and 1.10 whereas any upward movements above 1.1265 could be limited to a high of 1.1350.

The Payrolls report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC today.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will NFP Help Or Hurt U.S. Dollar?

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Dear Traders,

The biggest story on Thursday was the rise of the euro which has surged to a high of 1.0987. The euro is currently supported by expectations of a Macron win in the final round of French elections this Sunday. While we bear in mind that if Le Pen surprises on Sunday, the market’s reaction would be far greater, the most likely scenario is however a victory of the pro-euro candidate Emmanuel Macron. Markets are therefore unlikely to budge much if Macron wins.

Apart from the French election, great attention will be paid to the Non-Farm Payrolls report which appears to be the market-moving event for this week. The U.S. Jobs report is forecast to show a job growth of 190K jobs last month but the focus will also be on Average Hourly earnings. A large miss in this key figure or a disappointment in payrolls growth may raise doubts about a Fed June rate hike. In other words, a disappointment would have a greater impact on the market than a strong report. In case of a weaker jobs report the U.S. dollar could come under strong selling pressure.

The NFP report is due at 12:30 UTC today.

We wish you good trades and a nice weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will Payrolls Inject Momentum To The Sluggish Market?

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Dear Traders,

Overall, yesterday’s trading was not to our liking with the euro remaining confined to its three-week range between 1.0640 – 1.05 and the cable trading choppily in between our daily entry levels. In a nutshell, there was more to lose than to win from an unsteady market environment.

The euro benefited from a positive assessment of the euro-area economy while the ECB’s monetary policy stance has not fundamentally changed. The ECB statement came in as expected while Mario Draghi said downside risks to the euro zone economy were less pronounced. Even if the next change from the ECB will be towards removing accommodation and not adding stimulus, it is still too early for a shift in monetary policy.

The EUR/USD rose to a high of 1.0615 and that was it. The price development remained relatively moderate and major market moves are still lacking. The short-term bias has slightly changed in favor of the bulls but it is the appetite for U.S. dollars that will dictate the price action and thus, traders are eagerly waiting for the March Non-farm Payrolls to determine direction.

The GBP/USD was moving sideways between 1.2195 and 1.2135. Unfortunately, our entries were placed on top and below that sideways trading range. Therefore we have been struggling with false breakouts. U.K. Industrial production is due for release at 9:30 UTC but this report will take a backseat to the highly anticipated NFP report.

Today’s U.S. jobs report is the last top event risk before the Fed meeting next week. A healthy report is widely expected but the expectations are very high. Hence, there is a risk of disappointment, which would carry a higher impact than an upbeat report.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co