Quiet Trading?

The U.S. dollar rally continued as the market has moved the timing of the first rate hike to June 2022, pricing in an earlier end to QE. The FOMC minutes were hawkish and thus confirmed the Fed’s openness to quicker stimulus reduction.

Today is the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and trading volumes might be thin.

EUR/USD: As long as the pair remains below 1.1250, we favor the downtrend.

GBP/USD: As long as the cable trades below 1.3420, we focus on a lower target at around 1.3280.

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

 

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Further U.S. Dollar Strength Ahead?

The euro consolidated within a 50-pip-range against the U.S. dollar Tuesday and it seems as if the dollar is only taking a breather before we see the greenback resuming its rally and thus seeing more bearish momentum in the EUR/USD. As long as the pair remains trading below 1.13, the chances are in favor of the bears with a next lower target seen at 1.1150.

The GBP/USD trended lower as prospects for a Bank of England December rate hike started to fade. Below 1.3340, the next target is at 1.33.

Today, traders await key U.S. data such as the PCE index due at 15:00 UTC as well as the latest Federal Reserve minutes at 19:00 UTC. If the PCE index surprises to the upside, the dollar could further strengthen with traders speculating on a tighter Fed monetary policy path.

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ETH/USD

Long @ 4310

Short @ 4240

 

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Relief Across The Market After Powell Pick

U.S. President Joe Biden decided to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Federal Reserve chair and thus, calmed the markets. So, what we got was the status-quo scenario and a stronger U.S. dollar as Biden’s pick bolstered expectations that interest rates will climb next year. Lael Brainard was elevated to vice chair, making Powel and Brainard a powerful duo.

The greenback traded higher and pushed other counterparts lower in turn.

EUR/UD: As long as the euro remains below 1.13, we expect further losses.

GBP/USD: The cable broke below 1.3390. We see a next lower target at 1.3350 and if 1.34 serves as a lower resistance we anticipate another leg down toward 1.33.

DAX: Prepare for a test of the crucial 16000-support. Below 15980 bearish momentum could accelerate with a lower target seen at 15800. Back above 16210 we may see a run for 16400.

 

We wish you good trades!

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Thanksgiving-Woche mit Blick auf Trends

Es ist Thanksgiving-Feiertagswoche in den USA und obwohl dies saisonal eine Verminderung der Liquidität an den Märkten bedeutet, heißt es nicht gleichbedeutend, dass es in dieser Woche keinen Trend geben wird. Steigende Covid-Fälle und die Geldpolitik bleiben die treibenden Themen und der Markt wartet auf die Entscheidung von U.S. Präsident Biden über den nächsten Chef der Federal Reserve. Die Entscheidung scheint zwischen Jerome Powell und Lael Brainard zu fallen. Letztere ist deutlich dovischer als Powell und eine Entscheidung zugunsten von Brainard könnte daher eine bärische Reaktion im U.S. Dollar auslösen. Die Märkte erwarten allerdings weitgehend, dass Amtsinhaber Powell seine Rolle beibehält und preisen sogar schon eine Zinserhöhung der Fed im Juli ein. Bidens Entscheidung, wer der nächste Fed-Vorsitzende sein wird, wird vor dem Thanksgiving-Feiertag am Donnerstag erwartet.

EUR/USD – Anfällig für einen Dip bis 1.1150?

Der Euro gibt der Warnung vor neuen wirtschaftlichen Stilllegungen im Zusammenhang mit wieder steigenden Covid-Fällen in Europa nach. Wir sahen das Paar bei 1.1250 eine kurzfristige Unterstützung findend, jedoch erwarten wir den Euro anfällig für weitere Verluste, da Deutschland die Tür für mögliche Lockdowns in der Weihnachtszeit offenlässt.

Aus technischer Sicht werden wir uns auf einen Bruch unter 1.1240 konzentrieren, um dann den Blick auf ein tieferes Ziel bei 1.1150 zu richten. Auf der Oberseite sehen wir einen kurzfristigen Widerstandsbereich zwischen 1.13 und 1.1330, der Verkäufer anziehen könnte.

GBP/USD – Könnten die Bären die Kontrolle übernehmen?

Während es Sterling Bullen gelang das Paar oberhalb von 1.34 zu stabilisieren, könnte sich die Stimmung nun zugunsten der Bären wandeln – vorausgesetzt die 1.34-Schwelle bricht. Unterhalb von 1.3390 richten wir unseren Fokus auf ein tieferes Ziel bei 1.33. Nichtsdestotrotz sollten Trader berücksichtigen, dass das Britische Pfund von einer „Buy-the dip“ Strategie profitieren könnte im Vorfeld der Bank von England Zinsentscheidung im Dezember, bei der eine erhöhte Wahrscheinlichkeit für eine Zinserhöhung besteht. Dies ist jedenfalls das, was der Markt einpreist.

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Thanksgiving Week: Focus on Trends

It’s the Thanksgiving holiday week and while this means a seasonal liquidity drain across the markets, it does not mean that there will be no trend. Rising Covid cases and monetary policy remain driving themes and the market awaits President Biden’s decision on the next leader of the Federal Reserve. The decision seems to be between Jerome Powell and Lael Brainard. The latter is notably more dovish than Powell and could therefore generate a bearish reaction in the U.S. dollar. Markets largely expect incumbent Powell to keep his role and are already pricing in a Fed rate hike as soon as July. Biden’s decision on who will be the next Fed chair is expected before the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

EUR/USD – Vulnerable to a dip toward 1.1150?

The euro gives in to the warning of new economic shutdowns related to the resurgence in covid cases in Europe. We saw the pair finding some short-term support at 1.1250 but the euro remains vulnerable to further losses with Germany leaving the door open to lockdowns heading into the holiday season.

From a technical perspective, we will focus on a break below 1.1240 in order to shift the focus to a lower target at 1.1150. On the upside, we see a short-term resistance area between 1.13 and 1.1330 which could attract sellers.

GBP/USD – Could bears take over control?

While sterling bulls were able to stabilize the pair above 1.34, the sentiment could now change in favor of the bears – provided that 1.34 breaks again. Below 1.3390 we will shift our focus to a lower target at 1.33. Nevertheless, traders should bear in mind that the British pound could benefit from a buy-the-dip strategy ahead of the Bank of England rate decision in December with an increased probability of a BoE rate hike.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Try out our new signals for cryptocurrencies:

ETH/USD

Long @ 4310

Short @ 4180

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Daily Forex Signals

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1380

Short @ 1.1340

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3515

Short @ 1.3460

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 16310

Short @ 16230

ETH/USD

Long @ 4120

Short @ 4030

 

Monthly results 2021:

 

October 2021: +165 pips

September 2021: +578 pips

August 2021: +135 pips

July 2021: +34 pips

June 2021: +264 pips

May 2021: +528 pips

April 2021: +278 pips

March 2021: +45 pips

February 2021: +42 pips

January 2021: +472 pips

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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GBP/USD Heads For Test of 1.35, More Gains Ahead?

The EUR/USD consolidated between 1.1340 and 1.1290 while the GBP/USD headed for a test of 1.35 this morning. Sterling bulls will pay attention to a break above 1.3525 which could spur bullish momentum towards 1.36. A current support is however seen at 1.34.

Elsewhere, the DAX seems to be on its way toward 16400. As long as the index remains above 16150 and generally above 16000, we favor the upward trend.

In the crypto world we saw some corrective movements which were expected after the recent high levels in many cryptocurrencies. In the ETH/USD we look at a trading range between 4650 and 4000. If the pair drops below 3890, we may see a steeper decline toward 3600.

We wish you good trades!

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EUR/USD: Bearish Breakout Below 1.13

The U.S. dollar rally continues and while king dollar remains bid, the EUR/USD sells off even more aggressively this morning. With Austria and Germany imposing restrictions on unvaccinated people and with the European Central bank lagging behind the Federal Reserve in tightening its monetary policy there is very little demand for euros right now.

EUR/USD – Breakout below 1.13

If the euro now remains below 1.1370, we will prepare for a lower target at around 1.1220. Caution is however warranted since the pair is deeply oversold.

GBP/USD – Struggles to overcome 1.3450

We see chances shifting in favor of the bears in case the cable isn’t able to stabilize above the 1.3450-level. For bears it will be important that sterling breaks again below 1.3390 in order to expect lower targets at 1.33 and 1.32. Any bullish attempt on the other side, could end with a test of 1.35 – at least in the short-term.

We wish you good trades!

Try out our new signals for cryptocurrencies:

ETH/USD

Long @ 4260

Short @ 4125

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EUR/USD Drops Below 1.14 – Further Lows in Sight?

The U.S. dollar strengthened Monday on speculation the Federal Reserve may have to speed up policy tightening to fight price pressures. The euro fell victim to the greenback’s strength and broke below 1.14. The focus will now be on U.S. retail sales scheduled for release today at 13:30 UTC.

EUR/USD- technical picture

The pair fell toward a low at 1.1350 and traders wonder whether lower targets at 1.12 could be in sight. If the euro is unable to stabilize above 1.1420 we might see another leg down but this will primarily hinge on the demand for USD.

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Try out our new signals for cryptocurrencies:

ETH/USD

Long @ 4515

Short @ 4290

 

We wish you good trades!

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U.S. Dollar Pauses Rally, For Now

Welcome to a new trading week.

What will be in focus this week? We have some Federal Reserve speak in the days ahead as well as the U.S. retail sales report on Tuesday. Retail Sales are poised to show an acceleration in October which could trigger a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar.

EUR/USD – Further downward pressure?

The euro’s underperformance is set to continue as long as the European Central Bank lags behind the Fed in tapering asset purchases and hiking interest rates. An ECB rate hike next year is according to ECB President Christine Lagarde “very unlikely”, which is why the euro’s performance will depend on the dollar’s strength in the near-term. We continue to look at a potential trading range between 1.14 and 1.1540.

GBP/USD – Consolidation ahead?

After the cable has stopped its fall just two pips above 1.3350, we saw a small rebound with sterling trading back above 1.34. Currently we see short-term chances in favor of the bulls with a lower resistance coming in at 1.3480. In the case of a rise above 1.3510 we see a higher target at 1.3570 but we do not expect big movements in the days ahead. Consolidated moves between 1.35 and 1.33 are much more likely.

Try out our new signals for cryptocurrencies:

ETH/USD

Long @ 4715

Short @ 4635

We wish you good trades!

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