Investors were caught on the wrong foot as the Bank of England has held interest rates steady at 0.5 percent and thus refrained from prematurely responding to the clouded economic outlook. Market participants priced in more than an 80 percent probability the BoE would lower the rate in July and were therefore disappointed. The pound jumped more than 240 pips from our long-entry in an immediate response to the decision. However the focus now shifts to the BoE’s next monetary policy meeting in August when the central bank will make a full assessment with new forecasts in its inflation report. Until then the performance of the pound will be determined by risk appetite. Nonetheless traders should bear in mind that the pound remains a sell on rallies and it might be worthwhile therefore to sell the pound at crucial resistance levels.
Technical outlook GBP/USD (for subscribers):
The euro rose in tandem with the pound but gains were limited until the upper bound of the euro’s current trading range. Once the common currency is able to break above 1.1170 we could see a test of 1.1215 in a next step. However, the performance of the euro will be determined by risk appetite and U.S. data. The most important piece of U.S. data this week will be Retail Sales scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC alongside the Consumer Price report. Eurozone CPI data (9:00 UTC) is, however, not expected to have a significant impact on the euro as no changes are forecast.
Last but not least, Michigan Confidence is due for release at 14:00 UTC but the focus will be on retails sales and CPI figures.
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