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Traders Prepare For High Volatility Today

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Dear Traders,

The British pound has recovered some losses after it tested the lower bound of its current downtrend channel. Based on that channel we now see a current resistance at 1.3290 while any bearish moves could be limited until 1.3130. Today will be an interesting trading day for sterling traders as the Bank of England is scheduled to announce its rate decision alongside the release of the MPC meeting minutes.

The BoE is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at today’s meeting but the minutes of officials’ deliberations may offer fresh clues to their thinking on Britain’s post-Brexit economy, particularly on whether another rate cut is still in the cards later this year given that growth appears to be holding up better than expected. Yesterday’s U.K. labour data showed resilience following the Brexit vote while the U.K. unemployment rate stayed steady at an 11-year low.

The BoE rate decision and MPC meeting minutes are scheduled for release at 11:00 UTC and traders should prepare for volatile swings in the GBP/USD. Before the important event, U.K. Retail Sales are due for release at 8:30 UTC.

Apart from the British pound the focus will be on the U.S. dollar today with the U.S. Retail Sales report and Philadelphia Fed Survey scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. Stronger U.S. data will fuel speculations that the Fed could tighten monetary policy at their FOMC meeting next week.

EUR/USD

The euro finally showed some larger swings yesterday, testing its current resistance zone around 1.1270. In the 4-hour chart we see a symmetrical triangle, which may predict increased momentum after the euro broke above or, respectively, below that pattern. Above 1.1275 we see chances of a rise towards 1.1310, the resistance line of the recent downtrend channel. If the euro breaks above that resistance line we watch out for pullbacks around the 1.1330-level as it could act as a crucial resistance. On the bottom side a break below 1.1220 could send the euro lower towards 1.1170 and 1.1130.

chart_eur_usd_4hours_snapshot15-9-16

From the eurozone we have Consumer Prices scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC but no changes are expected. How the euro will trade today will mainly hinge on the performance of the greenback.

We wish you many profitable trades for today.

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Sterling Traders Focus On Carney’s Testimony

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar slumped against the euro and British pound after the U.S. services sector index unexpectedly dropped to a six-year low, bolstering speculation that the Federal Reserve will stand pat on lower interest rates. The ISM non-manufacturing index expanded at its weakest pace in six years and this decline was reason enough for dollar bulls to give up on their dollar long positions, sending the greenback’s counterparts significantly higher in return.

The euro jumped above 1.12 and currently attempts to sustainably overcome the next resistance level at 1.1250. Above 1.1270 it could head for a test of 1.13 and 1.1330. In the case of further dollar weakness we see a next crucial resistance zone around the 1.1360-level. Euro bears should however wait for prices below 1.1220 in order to sell the euro.

The pound sterling extended its gains and rose above 1.34. Whether there is still some more upside room remains to be seen and could hinge on today’s U.K. data and a testimony of Bank of England Governor Carney. The BoE governor will answer to a panel of lawmakers and questions will also center on the August Inflation report, in which officials lowered their growth forecasts by the most ever. The testimony is scheduled for 13:15 UTC today and could have a major impact on the pound as it will be scrutinized for clues about the U.K. outlook and the possibility of a further rate cut by the end of the year.

U.K. Industrial and Manufacturing production figures are scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC.

Last but not least, the Fed releases its Beige Book at 18:00 UTC which could have a minor impact on the dollar.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Will The BoE Deliver Or Disappoint?

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar slightly advanced versus the euro after the ADP report came in better than expected. Unlike the euro, the British pound lacked direction before the Bank of England’s rate decision and fluctuated within a sideways range of 100 pips.

Today, there is only one subject in the market: The Bank of England rate decision and Inflation Report, scheduled to be released at 11:00 UTC. Our focus therefore shifts to the GBP/USD as we prepare for volatile swings. While a 25bp rate cut is widely expected, the price action will depend on how aggressive BoE policymakers will support their dovish stance. If they signal further easing in the near-term, the pound could quickly fall towards 1.32 and even lower. On the other hand, if the central bank is in no hurry to introduce further easing except the anticipated 25bp rate cut, investors could be disappointed and give up on their short positions. The pound could surge as a result of a less dovish BoE.

However, as stated in yesterday’s analysis the 1.3420 level could act as a crucial resistance for the pound. Hence, gains could be limited until 1.3425 and 1.3480. Only a significant break above 1.35 would change the bias in favor of the bulls. On the bottom side, we will focus on the 1.32-level. In case sterling drops below 1.3170 we see chances of an extended downward move towards 1.3030.

Given the fact that today’s focus is on the pound sterling, we do not expect larger fluctuations in the EUR/USD. The euro could trade sideways between 1.12 and 1.11. We recommend traders not investing too much today and take profits at smaller targets if there are any.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Volatile Swings Expected Throughout The Entire Week

/in /by

Dear Traders,

We welcome you to the trading month of August. While markets are usually quieter during this summer month, the first week of August might be different this year as we have big market movers ahead of us. Before the highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, due for release on Friday, traders will scrutinize the ISM Manufacturing (Monday) and ISM Non-Manufacturing index (Wednesday). Apart from these market-moving reports, sterling traders prepare for a volatile week as the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates and add stimulus to stem a potential fallout from Brexit. Analysts predict an aggressive action from the BoE, which could increase the pressure on the British pound. The BoE will announce its rate decision alongside the release of its Quarterly Inflation Report on Thursday. While the overall bias remains bearish for the pound, traders should prepare for volatile swings ahead of “Super-Thursday”. The sentiment only changes from bearish to bullish in case of a sustained break above the resistance area at 1.3485/1.35. On the other side however, if sterling is not able to break below 1.30 in order to reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum, we expect the current sideways trend to continue.

The U.S. dollar weakened against its counterparts after the U.S. GDP expanded at less than half the rate economists had forecast. The weak domestic data led to speculation the Federal Reserve may push back a rate increase to 2017. The focus therefore shifts to the U.S. labor market report this week and it would need an ambiguous strong report to help the dollar.

EUR/USD

The euro rallied towards 1.12 on the back of dollar weakness and broke above a secondary downward channel while it is now facing the higher resistance line of its primary downward channel at around 1.13. Gains might be limited until that level, whereas the 1.11-level could lend a short-term support to the euro.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot1.8.16

Important economic data for today:

7:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI

8:30 UK Manufacturing PMI

14:00 USA ISM Manufacturing

(Time zone: UTC)

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Bullish Bias On GBP/USD As BoE Policymakers Wait For August

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Dear Traders,

Investors were caught on the wrong foot as the Bank of England has held interest rates steady at 0.5 percent and thus refrained from prematurely responding to the clouded economic outlook. Market participants priced in more than an 80 percent probability the BoE would lower the rate in July and were therefore disappointed. The pound jumped more than 240 pips from our long-entry in an immediate response to the decision. However the focus now shifts to the BoE’s next monetary policy meeting in August when the central bank will make a full assessment with new forecasts in its inflation report. Until then the performance of the pound will be determined by risk appetite. Nonetheless traders should bear in mind that the pound remains a sell on rallies and it might be worthwhile therefore to sell the pound at crucial resistance levels.

Technical outlook GBP/USD (for subscribers):

The euro rose in tandem with the pound but gains were limited until the upper bound of the euro’s current trading range. Once the common currency is able to break above 1.1170 we could see a test of 1.1215 in a next step. However, the performance of the euro will be determined by risk appetite and U.S. data. The most important piece of U.S. data this week will be Retail Sales scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC alongside the Consumer Price report. Eurozone CPI data (9:00 UTC) is, however, not expected to have a significant impact on the euro as no changes are forecast.

Last but not least, Michigan Confidence is due for release at 14:00 UTC but the focus will be on retails sales and CPI figures.

We wish profitable trades for today and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Upcoming Downward Move On BoE Financial Stability Report?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Markets were quiet Monday with both major currency pairs fluctuating within narrow ranges. Unfortunately, breakout-traders had more to lose than to gain as both euro and cable trended sideways without showing any sustained price breakout. However, this may change today with Bank of England Governor Carney outlining the central bank’s macroprudential tools to support the economy in a post-Brexit world. After signaling a willingness to cut interest rates in the near-term, the governor is set to present the financial-stability assessment today at 9:30 UTC.

The governor will give a press conference 30 minutes after the publication of the Financial Stability report. The report and Carney’s rhetoric will be main risk events for traders on Tuesday and could significant influence the pound sterling as well as the euro.

Before coming to the BoE report, Eurozone Retail Sales and U.K. PMI numbers are scheduled for release but these reports are not expected to have a significant impact on the currencies. From the U.S., we have second-tier data such as Factory and Durable Goods Orders scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC.

From a technical perspective we are still looking for breakouts above 1.3340 or below 1.3240 in the GBP/USD and respectively, above 1.1170 or below 1.1070 in the EUR/USD.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Sterling And Euro Drop On Fresh Easing Bias

/in /by

Dear Traders,

There was not much to be gained for euro traders as the recent trading days were characterized by sideways movements and unsteady swings. Ultimately, trading the EUR/USD didn’t really pay off. Unlike the euro, trading the British pound was much more profitable last month as record high volatility provided many profit opportunities.

Both euro and pound dropped on speculation central banks will expand easing as a consequence of the Brexit chaos. While the European Central Bank may shift the prospects of easing further in the future, the Bank of England could take the first step and cut interest rates by August. BoE Governor Carney signaled a rate cut within months, saying in yesterday’s’ speech “the economic outlook has deteriorated and some monetary policy easing will likely be needed over the summer”. Market participants are now pricing in a BoE rate cut at the early August meeting when the central bank releases new forecasts. Until then, the pound sterling is expected to be vulnerable to further losses.

The euro, however, initially declined on fresh easing bias but the losses were limited. Neither the upside break above 1.1135 provided any sustained profit, nor the downward movement below 1.1085 proved to be successful in the first two attempts. We are looking for better profit opportunities next week with the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls scheduled for release next Friday.

Today we will keep an eye on important U.S. data such as the ISM Manufacturing index, due for release at 14:00 UTC. If this report comes in with an uptick, we could see the greenback strengthening. The German Manufacturing PMI (7:55 UTC) and U.K. PMI report (8:30 UTC) could be of secondary importance.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Brexit Is The Big Elephant In The Room Urging The Fed To Adopt Slower Rate Hike Path

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Dear Traders,

The market reaction to the FOMC statement was more muted than expected. While the cable maintained a daily price level around the 1.42-mark, the euro surged to a high of 1.1298 after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady. While the decision to leave rates steady in June was widely expected, Fed chair Yellen declined to provide any guidance on the timing of future rate increases during her press conference. However, the Fed has taken a more cautious stance with regard to next week’s referendum in the U.K., a decision that “could have consequences for economic and financial conditions in global financial markets (…) and in turn for the U.S. economic outlook”, Yellen said. At present, the Brexit vote is the greatest uncertainty in the market.

In the light of a slower approach to interest-rate increases, the U.S. dollar weakened but losses were limited as the dollar is profiting from its function as a safe haven amidst all uncertainties. Traders should bear in mind that as long as the market is biased by the upcoming Brexit vote we might not see any sustained movements in the currencies. Large investors are likely to wait until after the big event in order to take new positions.

Today, the focus shifts to the U.S. Consumer Price report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. In case of any unexpected surprises the dollar will respond accordingly. Apart from that most important piece of economic data, the Bank of England is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision at 11:00 UTC but no changes are expected, making it a non-event for traders. Before the BoE interest rate decision, U.K. Retail Sales are due for release at 8:30 UTC which could have a minor impact on the pound.

From the Eurozone we have Consumer Prices scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC but if the report is in line with the expectations, it will not have a significant impact on the euro.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Dollar Weakened On Dovish Fed Statement

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Dear Traders,

The FOMC statement came in slightly more dovish than markets had expected, predicting two quarter-point rate increases by the end of this year. The Federal Reserve’s stance was generally friendly and while policy makers are still looking for two rate hikes in 2016 the statement pointed to risks to global economic growth, citing the impact from global risks on the U.S. economy. The market’s reaction to the Fed’s statement suggests that expectations were somewhat more bullish, focusing on the “dot-chart” of interest-rate forecasts which finally represented only two rate hikes instead of the expected three hikes this year. With regard to the so-called “dot plot” projections which were recently of considerable importance, Yellen tried to downplay the significance of those forecasts saying that they are neither a present plan nor a commitment.

On the bottom line, the Fed maintains its hawkish monetary policy stance even if the pace of further tightening slightly slowed. The probability of a rate hike in April is currently at 15 percent whereas economists see a 42 percent-chance of a rate increase in June.

Both euro and British pound benefitted from the dovish statement and rose towards next resistance levels. The EUR/USD bounced back from the next resistance level around 1.1250 but was able to remain above 1.12. For euro traders it was yet another day of huge profits and our monthly performance increased by 100 pips to 304 pips profit. Technically we see a next hurdle at 1.1280 before heading towards a test of 1.13 but traders should bear in mind that the euro is generally not the most attractive currency and can quickly give up on its gains as soon as risk appetite declines. Euro bears should wait for a break of 1.1050 and 1.10.

The British pound climbed towards 1.43 on the back of broad-based dollar weakness. Whether the pair will be able to break above 1.43 remains to be seen. However, concerning the technical picture the bias remains bearish and we will focus on current resistance from where the pound may bounce back.

The Bank of England will announce its monetary policy statement including the rate decision today at 12:00 GMT but no changes are expected. Let us have a look at the technical outlook.

GBP/USD

Looking at the daily chart we see that the overall trend is bearish and that the recent upward move can yet be considered as correction within a downward trend. With a break above 1.4310 next resistances are seen at 1.4375 and 1.44. We expect the 1.4515- 1.4580 area to be a key resistance for the currency pair. Consequently we favor the downward trend sending sterling back towards 1.4040 and 1.40.

Chart_GBP_USD_Daily_snapshot17.3.16

Further important economic data for today:

10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Prices

12:00 UK Bank of England Rate Decision

12:30 USA Philly Fed Index

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Bears Regained Some Control – The Calm Before The Storm?

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Dear Traders,

The British pound has begun to give up some of its gains and dropped below the 1.42-level. Meanwhile, the upcoming U.K. referendum and the Brexit debate have led to new tensions between lawmakers and the Bank of England. In yesterday’s hearing, the central bank was accused of being supportive of the “remain”-campaign, overstating the positives. Uncertainties surrounding a potential Brexit-scenario are weighing on the pound which is why the odds are in favor of further bearish momentum. The closer the June-vote approaches, the more tensions we can expect.

Next lower targets are seen at 1.4155 and 1.4110. If GBP breaks significantly below 1.41 we might see a slide towards 1.4060 and 1.4020. On the upside, gains were capped at 1.4275 and it would require a sustained break above 1.43 in order to revive fresh bullish momentum.

U.K. Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures are scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT, a report which could have a short-term impact on the cable.

The euro reversed just shy of 1.1060 and ended the day lower against the greenback. Our focus now shifts towards the 1.0950-support. A break below 1.0940 could drive the euro towards lower levels at 1.0910 and 1.0870. On the topside, the resistance-zone at 1.1060/70 remains intact.

There are no important economic reports from the Eurozone scheduled for release today but going into tomorrow’s crucial ECB meeting, the euro could be vulnerable to further losses.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co