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Euro And Cable: Sideways Movement Continues

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Dear Traders,

Despite better than-expected U.S. economic data the greenback refused to trade higher versus its major peers – this was at least the case in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Having already fully discounted a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, investors will now wait for fresh hints about the future rate hike path before entering new long-term positions.

The euro traded sideways and, as expected, the currency pair remained confined to a trading range of nearly 100 pips. While the support at 1.0560 is still intact the euro might tend to test the 1.0715-resistance level, before resuming its overall downtrend. However, if the euro is unable to trade above 1.0670 we will shift our focus to a renewed break below 1.0580.

The cable remained stuck between 1.2530 and 1.2385. A break above 1.2530 may send the pound slightly higher towards 1.2550 but for the pound to rise towards higher targets this resistance level must be significantly breached in order to ignite fresh bullish potential. On the downside we will keep an eye on a break below 1.24.

The Bank of England publishes the results of its annual bank stress tests alongside its Financial Stability Report at 7:00 UTC. Following the report, BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, so sterling traders should keep an eye on the price development as the pound might be vulnerable to volatile swings.

From the Eurozone we have the German Unemployment Report scheduled for release at 8:55 UTC, followed by Eurozone CPI data at 10:00 UTC. Chances are that these reports will have a positive impact on the euro, pushing it towards 1.0715. Furthermore, ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Madrid at 12:30 UTC.

Last but not least, it should be worth watching the release of upcoming U.S. data, such as the ADP report due at 13:15 UTC, PCE numbers at 13:30 UTC and the Fed’s Beige Book at 19:00 UTC.

So it could be an interesting trading day with hopefully profitable trading chances.

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Is The U.S. Dollar Poised For A New Round Of Strength

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar regained some of its strength, pushing the euro and cable lower. While the euro stopped its fall slightly above 1.0560, the British pound turned out to be Monday’s worst performer and dropped towards 1.2385. British companies are increasingly pessimistic about the future outlook and with the Brexit debate intensifying, the pound remains vulnerable to larger losses. We currently see a higher likelihood of a bearish breakout in the GBP/USD but we recommend traders waiting for a break below 1.2350 in order to sell sterling.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned that Britain, rather than the Eurozone, would be the first to suffer from the consequences of a Brexit. When speaking at the European Parliament in Brussels on Monday he described a cocktail of political risks hanging over the global economy, including the Brexit vote, Donald Trump’s election and the looming Italian referendum. Draghi also signaled the ECB’s readiness to continue its monetary stimulus. At the ECB meeting next week, the central bank is widely expected to announce an extension of its bond-buying program.

EUR/USD – Interesting chart formation

While there are good arguments for both bulls and bears favoring one direction or another, it should be interesting in which direction the euro may be heading within the next days. Given the uncertainty ahead of the Italian referendum, the risk is to the downside but with investors staying on the sidelines in the run-up to the important vote on Sunday, the euro could also trade directionless sideways. For the time being, we expect the pair to range-trade between 1.0670 and 1.0570. Above 1.0670 it may head for a test of 1.0710, whereas a break below 1.0560 may invigorate fresh bearish momentum towards 1.0470.

chart_eur_usd_4hours_snapshot29-11-16

Important economic data for today:

13:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index

13:30 USA GDP Report

15:00 USA Consumer Confidence

(Time zone: UTC)

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More To Lose Than To Gain Amid Liquidity Drain

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Dear Traders,

With many U.S. market participants being on holiday for a long weekend, there was not much consistency in the performance of the U.S. dollar and given the unsteady fluctuation there was more to lose than to gain. With liquidity running short we recommend traders not investing much or doing a trading break until market liquidity stabilizes next week.

The euro was little changed and refrained from trading any higher than 1.0585. On the downside, it marked a fresh low at 1.0518 which was much to the displeasure of short traders as our short entry was triggered and quickly stopped out. We expect the euro to trade between 1.0610 and 1.0540 today whereas a break above 1.0615 may drive the euro higher towards 1.0640 or even 1.0660. Below 1.0540 we see chances of accelerated bearish momentum towards 1.05 and 1.0480.

The trading range in the GBP/USD narrowed and breakouts are becoming more likely in the near-term. Sterling traders should keep an eye on the U.K. GDP report scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC. Any surprises may boost the price action in the cable.

As the US rests we do not expect big market movements but nonetheless the U.S. Advance Goods Trade Balance due at 13:30 UTC might be worth watching.

Have a beautiful and relaxing weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Risk-Aversion Dominates The Market Ahead Of Major Risk Events

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar received less attention as investors turned risk-averse in the light of the latest twist in the U.S. election, causing uncertainty about the outcome of the looming vote. The euro still remained within a narrow trading range and none of our entries was triggered Monday. In order to expect an increase in momentum we now wait for an upside break above 1.0980 or, on the other side, a downside break below 1.0935.

Unlike the non-moving euro, the British pound rose to a high of 1.2249 as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney announced that he will remain in the role until 2019. Carney’s decision to stay at the BoE was seen as a positive for the U.K. even though the pound remains vulnerable to further losses in the medium term. The GBP/USD trades sideways between 1.2275 and 1.21 ans as long as there is no breakout of this range we will have to wait.

The U.K. PMI Manufacturing is scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC but this report is unlikely to have a dramatic impact on the pound.

More important will be the ISM Manufacturing index, due for release at 14:00 UTC which should affect the performance of the U.S. dollar provided that the report surprises to the upside.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Pound With A Tailwind While The Euro’s Downtrend Ran Out Of Steam

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Dear Traders,

Tuesday’s best performer was the British pound which rose towards its next resistance zone at 1.2320/50. The pound was supported by better than expected U.K. CPI data, limiting speculation that the Bank of England will need to ease monetary policy further. After bouncing off the 1.2330-resistance level we recommend sterling bulls to wait for a break above 1.2375 in order to buy GBP towards 1.2425. However, if the pound drops back below 1.2220, we expect increased bearish momentum towards 1.2170/50.

The U.K. Labor Market report is scheduled for release today at 8:30 UTC and any changes in the headline figures could have a significant impact on the GBP/USD.

The EUR/USD however, refrained from trading any lower than 1.0970. On the other hand, the pair was also not able to take the hurdle at 1.1030 which is why the euro remained confined to a narrow sideways trading range. If the euro falls below 1.0940 the bias could change in favor of the bears, driving the pair lower towards 1.0830.

While there are no economic reports from the Euro-zone today the price action could be determined by dollar flows. However, U.S. Housing data (12:30 UTC) and the Fed’s Beige Book (18:00 UTC) might be of secondary importance for traders.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Weakened Ahead Of CPI Data

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro and British pound ahead of today’s consumer price reports. While Monday’s trading in the EUR/USD was quiet and none of our entries was triggered, sterling traders had to struggle with false breakouts within a tight trading range. Thus we had to record some losses before our last buy attempt proved to be successful. The pound strengthened before the U.K. releases inflation figures today at 8:30 UTC and sterling traders should pay close attention to the CPI report as it could have a major impact on the price action in the GBP/USD.

Technically, the pound broke above a descending trend line, pointing to further upside momentum in the short-term. If the pair is unable to break above 1.2275, the recent upward movement could be on shaky ground.

Bullish scenario: Above 1.2275 we expect further gains towards the next resistance at 1.2320/50. Above 1.2375 the pound may even head towards 1.2430.

Bearish scenario: Below 1.2130 we expect further pound weakness.

chart_gbp_usd_4hours_snapshot18-10-16

Apart from the U.K. CPI report we have U.S. Consumer Prices scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. Economists predict the report to show inflation is accelerating and if they are right the dollar will strengthen in the wake of Federal Reserve rate hike speculations before year-end.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Risk-Off Ahead Of U.S. Payrolls Number

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Dear Traders,

There is not much news to report in the Forex market on Wednesday with both of our major currency pairs moving sideways. Despite stronger than-expected U.S. economic data, the dollar ended the day unchanged against the euro and British pound.

The euro continued to trade sideways within a tight price range of merely 50 pips. None of our entries was triggered yesterday and we will have to wait for price breakouts above 1.1270 or vice versa, below 1.1120.

The pound sterling took a breather and traded consolidated. As long as it remains firmly above 1.27 we shift our focus to the 1.2775-resistance which needs to be breached on the upside in order to invigorate bullish momentum. Below 1.2680 however, we expect the pound to extend its losses towards 1.2640.

Today we get Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC ahead of tomorrow’s big payrolls number, but we don’t expect this report to spark any major movement before the highly anticipated U.S. jobs data release.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Investors’ Appetite For U.S. Dollars Will Determine This Week’s Price Action

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Dear Traders,

We welcome you the trading month of October. Even though, the last trading month has proved to be non-profitable for day traders, it was a great month for swing traders while our swing signal trades generated an overall profit of 357 pips in September. Also this month we will again provide swing- and long-term entries for subscribers to get the best out of the current market conditions.

The British pound declined gapped lower at the open of the trading week after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said she will start pulling the Brexit trigger in the first quarter of 2017. May made a clear statement when she said on Sunday that they “will invoke Article 50 no later than the end of March next year.” From a technical perspective the support at 1.2915 is still intact and sterling bears may wait for a break below 1.29 in order to send the pound lower towards 1.2850. A current resistance is however seen around the 1.30-level.

The euro is still trading sideways within its recent trading range between 1.1250 and 1.1150. As long as the EUR/USD remains confined to a price range between 1.1280 and 1.1130 there is nothing new to report.

The focus this week will again shift to the U.S. Payrolls report on Friday while the report is expected to show steady labor-market improvement. An upbeat result may boost the U.S. dollar as it would bolster Federal Reserve rate hike speculation before year-end.

Today’s ISM Manufacturing Survey, scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC will be important to watch. Supportive ISM data may push the dollar higher versus its counterparts.

We wish you a good start to the new week and many profitable trades.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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U.S. Dollar Back In Focus: Will U.S. Data Help Or Hurt?

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Dear Traders,

While both of our major currency pairs fluctuated more or less sideways yesterday, the U.S. dollar was gaining momentum as upbeat economic data boosted optimism on the world’s largest economy. A gauge of consumer confidence rose to its highest level in nine years, coming in as a positive surprise for the market.

The euro tested the 1.12-support but, for the time being, the currency was able to remain above that important price level. Once the 1.1190-level is significantly breached, we may see accelerated bearish momentum towards 1.1130. However, given the recent sideways trend in the EUR/USD we anticipate the price action to be confined to a range between 1.1285 and 1.1120.

GBP/USD

The pound sterling rebounded against the greenback Tuesday and rose to a high of 1.3026. While we expect any further gains in this pair to be limited until 1.3070, downward movements may also be limited towards the lower bound of the pounds recent trading range at 1.2920. Once the 1.29-mark is breached to the downside, we could see further losses towards 1.2820.

chart_gbp_usd_4hours_snapshot28-9-16

Today, we will watch U.S. Durable Goods Orders, scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC, which could have a major impact on the U.S. dollar. Furthermore, Fed chair Janet Yellen testifies before the House Financial Services Committee at 14:00 UTC. Market participants scrutinize her remarks, looking for clues regarding future monetary policy but Yellen is not expected to reveal anything new after last week’s news conference.

ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 14:30 UTC at a meeting of the German Parliament’s EU Committee, but his speech is not expected to have a significant impact on the euro.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Presidential Debate In Full Swing But Investors Remain Risk-Averse

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Dear Traders,

This week started with some volatile swings in the Forex market with GBP/USD being the most volatile currency pair on Monday. The British pound dropped again towards its current support at 1.2910 before it started a relief rally. The cable has been torn between the rising fears of a “hard Brexit” and the weakening dollar.  The euro, however, rebounded against the U.S. dollar and the pair tested its resistance zone around 1.1275/85. As stated in yesterday’s analysis euro bulls should better wait for prices above 1.13 and even better above 1.1350. As long as the euro remains below 1.13, our focus shifts to a break of the 1.12-support.

The pound sterling traded volatile during the Asian session as the first U.S. presidential debate is in full swing. A Clinton win is seen as dollar-positive while a Trump victory would lead to chaos in the markets and has not yet been priced in. Investors remain risk-averse in the run-up to the presidential election in November and seek safe havens. Recent polls show a close head-to-head contest between the two candidates.

Apart from the U.S. debate and safe haven flows, U.S. Consumer Confidence, due at 14:00 UTC could have an impact on the greenback.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co