Hawkish Repricing Strengthens Greenback
The market had to reprice Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for this year, which is obvious in the latest round of U.S. dollar strength. At the beginning of this year, traders assigned an 80 percent probability to the first Fed rate cut coming in March, but the likelihood of an early policy easing dwindled to around 50 percent currently. The reason for the repricing is the U.S. economy which is holding up remarkably well while inflation remains still above-target. The hawkish repricing has led to accelerated Treasury yields, reinforcing the dollar’s recovery. We may see further gains in the greenback in the near term.
EUR/USD
The euro’s recent uptrend channel was broken to the downside with a dip towards 1.0840. If the euro is able to stabilize above 1.0870, we may see a rise back towards 1.10 but if 1.08 breaks to the downside, the next lower target could be at 1.05.
GBP/USD
The 1.26-support remains intact so far. Below 1.2580, traders will sell the pound towards 1.25. Sterling bulls on the topside, will wait for a fresh and clear break above 1.28.
DAX
The index dropped below 16590 and extended its decline towards the lower barrier of the DAX’s support area around 16400- 16350. Bears will now focus on a break below 16300 but more importantly, below 16240. Falling below 16240 could lead to a test of the crucial 16000-treshhold. On the upside, a lower resistance comes in at around 16750.
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