U.S. dollar – MaiMarFX

What’s Next After The Latest Round Of U.S. Dollar Strength?

February 5, 2024/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Friday’s U.S. NFP release showed the U.S. jobs market in good health with 353k new jobs created in January compared to expectations of only 180k. Following these healthy job numbers, traders pushed back on Federal Reserve rate cut expectations while a March rate cut is currently off the table.

The U.S. dollar strengthened strongly in response to Friday’s NFP report and provided short traders in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD some good gains.

Compared to last week, the economic calendar this week is light in terms of potential market-moving data and risk events. Traders should thus prepare for range-bound trades and smaller profits.

The EUR/USD slipped below 1.0790 and further towards 1.0760 but we expect that a short-term support is coming in at around 1.0750, which is why bulls could go for a test of the area around 1.0860. Falling below 1.0740, on the other side, could lead to a sell-off towards 1.0660.

The GBP/USD remained within its sideways range between 1.28 and 1.26. Looking for short entries, we will wait for price breaks below 1.2590 with a lower target at around 1.2560 and further for a fall below 1.2540 with a next target at 1.25. On the topside, a resistance is currently seen at 1.2750.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Nahostkrise als Risikofaktor

October 9, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Die Nachrichten über den Ausbruch von Gewalt im Nahen Osten haben die Märkte aufgewühlt, und trotz des Status des US-Dollars als Zufluchtsort in schwierigen Zeiten halten sich der Euro und das britische Pfund zu Beginn der neuen Woche (noch) recht gut gegenüber dem Greenback. Nach dem soliden Arbeitsmarktbericht vom Freitag, in dem für September 336.000 neue Arbeitsplätze gemeldet wurden, zeigte sich der Dollar zunächst sogar zurückhaltend gegenüber einer weiteren Rallye.

Nach dem Schock über den Hamas-Anschlag in Israel am Wochenende eröffnete der Dollar nur mit einer kleinen Kurslücke nach oben.

Die Instabilität im Nahen Osten hat jedoch das Potenzial, die Rallye des Greenback neu zu entfachen und könnte die Diskussion darüber, ob der Euro erneut auf die Parität fallen könnte, wieder aufleben lassen.

Bob Savage, Head of Markets Strategy at Insights bei BNY Mellon Capital Markets, schrieb in einer Notiz: “Das Dollar-Gebot hält an und die Verwirrung über Wachstum und Inflation hält an. Es ist wahrscheinlicher, dass wir eine Eskalation des Konflikts erleben werden als eine Lösung, sowohl im Inland als auch im Ausland, an den Märkten und in der Wirtschaft, in der Geld- und Steuerpolitik.”

Heute ist in den USA ein Feiertag, was dazu beitragen könnte, dass die Marktbedingungen heute eventuell unruhiger sind als an anderen Tagen mit wenig Liquidität.

Wenn auch Sie wissen möchten, wo wir unseren Stopp-Loss und Take-Profit setzen und ob wir an einem bestimmten Tag handeln oder nicht, sowie wie wir unsere Positionen managen, dann abonnieren Sie unseren Signalservice.

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

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GBP/USD: Hope For The Bulls?

June 22, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Even though Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained his hawkish stance that the inflation fight ‘has a long way to go’ and that more rate hikes are expected, the U.S. dollar failed to move higher. Instead, the euro flirted with the 1.10-area against the greenback and traders thus, brace for a next leg higher towards the resistance zone at 1.11.

Yesterday’s correction in the cable stopped at 1.2690. We still expect a short-term support to lie at 1.2660. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates today at 11:00 UTC by 25bp. For a chance of a profitable bullish breakout, however, we would wait for the price to exceed the 1.2860-area.

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Our trading ideas for today 22/6/23:

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2775

Short @ 1.2735

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Powell Testimony In Focus

June 20, 2022/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Welcome to a new trading week after the challenging last one which has cost us some feathers. Many trades have failed to deliver the desired results. However, this week is not such an event-loaden one, which is why we might see more muted trading conditions.

As recessionary fears ebb and flow so too will the U.S. dollar, given its safe-haven status. The greenback’s major focus this week will be the testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday and Thursday. If Powell firms up already strong expectations for further monetary policy tightening, sacrificing economic growth, the dollar could rise.

GBP/USD

Traders will eye U.K. inflation figures due on Wednesday. Inflation is expected to show another increase, intensifying hawkish pressure on the Bank of England to increase interest rates by 50bp in August.

The outlook for the pound sterling remains bearish despite its short-term relief rally. A higher resistance is expected to come in at around 1.25 (green ellipse). The sentiment will only change from bearish to bullish in case of a clear break above 1.27. Current supports are seen at 1.2150 and 1.20.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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Will The Fed Meet The Market’s Hawkish Expectations?

September 22, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

It was a kind of turnaround-Tuesday with the U.S. dollar edging down after its most recent acceleration. However, it seemed that the market was just taking a breather ahead of today’s Federal Reserve decision. The sentiment could remain constrained until the decision at 18:00 UTC.

The Fed is expected to signal a reduction in stimulus later this year. The focus will also be on the dot plot rate hike forecasts. However, the FOMC announcement could be a tricky one as the Fed moves increasingly closer to scaling back asset purchases amid a deteriorating global economic backdrop where slowing GDP growth estimates in the U.S., relatively high inflation and rising Covid cases are posing a threat.

What is expected today?

Market participants expect a hawkish Fed with a strong hint that the taper will begin before the end of the year following a formal announcement in November.

The hawkish scenario: If the Fed thinks it is time to taper and if the dot plot shows a first rate hike in late 2022 the dollar will rise.

The dovish scenario: If the Fed disappoints the market’s expectations, stating that taper conditions haven’t been met and if Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplays the countdown for a rate liftoff, the dollar will sharply fall.

Most interesting for traders will be the dot-plot forecast due for release at 18:00 UTC and Powell’s press conference at 18:30 UTC.

EUR/USD: If the euro climbs above 1.1765, we expect the pair to test the 1.1770-1.18 price area. A current support zone remains intact between 1.17 and 1.1660. For a bullish breakout we would need a rise above 1.1850 which would shift the sentiment in favor of the bulls.

GBP/USD: The pair still remains oversold while hovering around 1.3650. If the cable falls below 1.3630 and further 1.36, we see a next lower target at 1.3550. On the upside we look at a resistance zone between 1.38 and 1.39.

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No Big Movements For Traders

July 29, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The FOMC statement came in with a somewhat hawkish tone, stating that policymakers are closer to tapering. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, however, depressed the U.S. dollar in the aftermath of the statement as he said that there was still some way to go. While no decision on taper timing had been made, Powell said officials “expect further progress” but they are “clearly a ways away” from liftoff. Economists now expect that a reduction in asset purchases (taper) will not happen until early 2022.

The next gathering of the FOMC is September 21-22 but before that, Powell will speak at the August 26-28 conference in Jackson Hole. Fed chairs have sometimes used the venue to signal policy shifts.

As for day trades there was nothing to gain yesterday with momentum in the Forex market still lacking. We therefore recommend traders staying on the sidelines during these low-liquidity periods, taking a break from the markets and adjusting risk exposure. Better trading conditions will come after the summer doldrums.

Traders will watch the U.S. GDP data today at 12:30 UTC but chances of big market moves are small.

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Risk Aversion Returns To The Market

July 20, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Traders saw a strong sell-off on Monday which led in many indices to a slump towards psychological support zones such as the 15000 level in the DAX. The index fell to the lowest level since May as investors rushed into safe haven assets as sentiment soured. A bout of risk aversion returned to the summer markets amid renewed fears over an economic slowdown, driven by a resurgence in Covid cases.

DAX

The index did not stop its fall until nearly 15000. Buying the dip could lead to some rebound towards 15500 now.

As for the currencies, the biggest beneficiaries of haven demand were the U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen. The GBP/USD dropped towards the descending trendline of its recent downward channel near 1.3650. If now 1.3630 holds, we may see a small rebound towards 1.3750.

The EUR/USD was the only currency pair that ended the trading day virtually unchanged. We keep tabs on technical breaks below 1.1730 and 1.17 on the downside and 1.1850 on the upside.

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EUR/USD And GBP/USD in Tight Ranges, Focus on U.S. Retail Sales

July 16, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The U.S. dollar ended yesterday’s trading day slightly higher against the euro and British pound while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell repeated the central bank’s dovish stance that a decision to taper stimulus is still a ways off. Many market participants expect the Fed to start tapering in December or January. Powell said that policymakers will talk about the possibility of scaling back stimulus at their next gathering on July 27-28.

Market momentum has faded amid the summer doldrums, making it difficult for traders to profit from small fluctuations within narrow price ranges. We continue to recommend a low-risk approach when trading in low volatile markets or staying on the sidelines.

EUR/USD: We expect the pair to remain within a trading range between 1.1880 and 1.1750. Breaking below 1.1740 could see accelerated bearish momentum towards 1.17. Euro bulls on the other side, should pay attention to a break above 1.19 with a higher target at 1.20.

GBP/USD: The cable traded sideways between 1.39 and 1.38. Above 1.3910 we see a next hurdle at 1.3940 followed by 1.3990. Below 1.3770 we will favor the downtrend with a lower target at 1.3650.

Traders will watch the U.S. retail sales report scheduled for release today at 12:30 UTC that could have an impact on dollar crosses.

Have a good weekend.

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals

We wish you good trades!

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No Big Movements As Powell Reiterates Dovish Stance

July 15, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday that it was still too soon to scale back asset purchases while acknowledging that recent inflation readings had been “higher than expected”. On the other hand, he said that if high inflation persisted “we would absolutely change our policy as appropriate”.

In short, Powell reiterated his dovish stance and signaled that the Fed will be patient in tightening monetary stimulus since ‘substantial further progress’ is still a ‘ways off’.

The U.S. dollar slightly weakened after Powell’s speech but there were no significant market movements.

Powell will face more questions from the Senate banking panel today.

Summer is in the markets and given a lower-liquidity backdrop across many markets during the summer months the potential for range-bound conditions is high. We therefore recommend traders staying on the sidelines during these low-liquidity periods, taking a break from the markets and adjusting risk exposure. The next major risk event will be later in the summer with the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium August 26-28.

We will take our annual summer trading break from August 2 to August 20 but will adjust risk exposure even in the month of July.

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EUR/USD And GBP/USD: How Low Can It Go?

July 1, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Short traders in the EUR/USD and DAX were able to catch some good profits on Wednesday.

The GBP/USD, however, lacked behind and refrained from a break below its 1.38-support, at least until now.

Let’s take a brief look at the technical picture:

EUR/USD

Looking at larger time frames (weekly chart) we see that the latest bearish move towards 1.1840 has sent the pair in oversold territory, increasing the chances of bullish pullbacks. However, before we shift our focus to potential pullbacks towards 1.20, we brace for a steeper decline towards at least 1.18 and possibly even 1.1750 until the release of tomorrow’s U.S. payrolls report.

GBP/USD

The cable still trades around the 1.38-mark and if that level finally breaks, which means a break below 1.3785, we could see a fall towards 1.37. A further break below 1.3665 could even increase selling pressure towards 1.35 but for such steep fall we must see a big upside surprise in the payrolls data tomorrow.