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U.S. Dollar Strengthens on Better-Than Expected PMI Data

Dear traders,

The best performer Monday was the British pound that rallied as signs the U.K. and European Union are close to agreeing a trade deal. The latest progress in the development of a coronavirus vaccine bolstered the currency’s upward move.

Bulls in the GBP/USD profited while sterling rose to the highest level since early September. Looking ahead, the potential for progress in Brexit talks, growing optimism for a vaccine and fresh fiscal stimulus should keep the cable supported.

We bear in mind, that a Brexit deal is largely priced in to the pound, which is why a breakdown in talks would see a much larger move lower.

The euro experienced a sharp reversal after the U.S. dollar gained traction on better than expected flash PMI data. The monthly PMI report crushed market forecast as it came in at a five-year high.

From a technical perspective, not much has changed in the EUR/USD. Above 1.1920 gains may be extended towards 1.1960 whereas below 1.1790 the euro may slip towards 1.1690.

The U.S. dollar could experience bullish tailwinds in short-term time frames as robust U.S. economic data could downplay the urgency of another fiscal stimulus package or additional accommodation from the Federal Reserve.

 

We wish you good trades!

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This Week To Set The Tone Until Year-End

Dear traders,

We welcome you to a crucial trading week that has a potential to set the tone for financial markets for the rest of the year.

The main event will be tomorrow’s U.S. election, with Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in polls. However, the senate may matter more for the markets than the President since a so-called “blue wave” (Democratic sweep) scenario is believed to be priced in and if Biden wins the presidency but his party does not gain enough seats in the Senate than we will have the worst scenario for the market.

In short, a divided government will be poison for the markets while a shift in control in the Senate (blue wave congress) could quickly pass a large stimulus plan, which is considered market friendly. But we bear in mind, that despite a Biden lead, Trump has a narrow but viable path to an election win, even though the surprise 2016 election result is less likely this time.

Given the fact that the coronavirus pandemic is driving record numbers of people to vote by mail and counting all votes could take days, or weeks we may need to wait longer than usual to learn who won the presidential race this year.

Whatever the outcome, we will prepare for swings on either side to get the best out of the market’s reaction.

While the U.S. election is front and center in the coming days, we also have the Bank of England and Federal Reserve meeting (Thursday) as well as the U.S. labor market report (Friday) on this week’s calendar.

The Bank of England is widely expected to add to its own bond-buying program as new coronavirus lockdowns put pressure on policy makers to act. The new lockdown in U.K. could also bolster talk of negative interest rates, which could weigh on the pound.

The Federal Reserve, which also meets this Thursday, has signaled that it’ll do what’s needed to keep borrowing costs contained.

This week will most likely be accompanied by a sharp rise in volatility, which is why traders should prepare for larger and sharper market movements.

We wish everyone good trades and hopefully a good profit!

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Final U.S. Presidential Debate Leaves Market Unaffected

Dear traders,

While the tone of the final U.S. presidential debate was much more civil that the first debate it gave traders little reason to shift their stances before the election on November 3 with the market showing no reaction during the debate.

The U.S. dollar traded slightly higher against the euro and pound but no big market moves were seen Thursday.

The DAX broke below 12400 and slid to a low of 12342 which was only a few pips away from our profit target TP100. However, we were able to book a good profit before the index recovered its losses.

Today is the last trading day of the week and we will save our weekly profit and wish everyone a wonderful weekend!

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Will Payrolls Lead To Further Losses In EUR/USD And GBP/USD?

Dear Traders,

The ECB’s policy decision came as a surprise for many market participants as policymakers decided to change their guidance by dropping a pledge to increase QE if needed. This tiny step to policy normalization shows confidence in the durability of euro-area growth. The euro initially rose on that hawkish bias but it was ECB President Draghi’s comments at the press conference that send the euro tumbling.

For euro bulls it should have been no surprise that the euro sharply reversed after another test of 1.2450 failed to provide a breakout. Rather, bearish momentum accelerated after the euro dropped below 1.2380 for a second time with the focus now turning to the 1.2280-support level.

The reason for the euro’s decline was that Mario Draghi gave a rather dovish speech saying that he sees interest rates at their present levels well beyond the end of QE. This dovish tone was all traders needed to sell euros toward lower levels.

The British pound was hurt by news from U.K. officials saying that they see “no Brexit deal until next year”. The pound fell toward a low of 1.3780 and currently struggles to hold above 1.38. If it falls below 1.3750 we will focus on lower targets at 1.3710 and 1.3610. A current resistance is however seen at 1.3890.

From the U.K. we have Manufacturing Production figures scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC but this report should take a backseat to the U.S. Nonfarm-payrolls report due at 13:30 UTC, which will receive more attention.

Heading into today’s NFP release, current expectations for the data are modest, with the unemployment rate expected to drop to 4.0 percent and the headline jobs figure to come in at 205K. The focus will also be on average hourly earnings.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex Signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

GBP/USD: Prepare For Higher Volatility Around May Speech

Dear Traders,

Thursday has been a challenging trading day for traders of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD as the U.S. dollar suddenly u-turned after U.S. President Donald Trump promised to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The dollar significantly depreciated against the euro after the EU said that it will “react firmly to Trump’s tariffs”. Trump’s announcement has brought to the fore the next escalation in trade wars which could be a permanent downgrade for the greenback. Hawkish rhetoric from New York President Dudley took a backseat to fears of a trade war.

Neither major currency pair provided a sustained profit yesterday while we had to struggle with false breakouts and choppy swings. However, we hope for more profitable trading conditions today while the focus will be on the British pound.

GBP/USD

The pound tumbled after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May rejected the EU’s Brexit draft Wednesday and now the market is waiting for more clarity on the U.K.’s demands of late. Theresa May is delivering the sixth and final “Road to Brexit” speech today, detailing the Government’s plans for the U.K. outside the EU. The time for May’s speech has yet to be scheduled.

We expect higher volatility in the GBP/USD but advise caution as the pound is known for its exaggerated volatile swings.

We wish you good trades and a wonderful weekend.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Roller-Coaster Day

Dear Traders,

Yesterday can be described as a roller-coaster day in the markets which was not to our liking. News that officials in Beijing, China, have recommended slowing or halting purchases of U.S. bonds have sent the U.S. dollar sharply lower, at least in a short-term. However, the news was not enough to change the current sentiment and thus, the dollar ended the trading pretty much unchanged against the euro and pound.

The price development in the EUR/USD was as expected. We saw a pullback sending the euro toward 1.2020.

We now expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.20 and 1.1860. Current chances are still in favor of the bears, provided that the euro remains below 1.20. An important support zone is seen around 1.1850 that could be tested before the euro is primed for another leg up.

From the Eurozone we have the German GDP scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC, followed by the ECB meeting minutes at 12:30 UTC.

Trading the GBP/USD has recently proved difficult. From a technical perspective we expect slightly more bearish momentum to come. The pound could fall towards 1.3470 and 1.3450 before buyers are swooping in. A current resistance is however seen at 1.3540-50.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Senate Passes U.S. Tax Bill

Dear Traders,

The British pound ended the trading day unchanged against the U.S. dollar after it fell to a low near 1.3330. The greenback on the other side, strengthened against most of its peers Tuesday with the exception of the euro. Investors awaited the final votes on the U.S. tax-cut legislation with the House taking another vote on the tax bill this morning.

Once the tax bill is behind us, investors will assess how the bill will impact the U.S. economy in the longer run. While the dollar could receive some fresh boost as investors anticipate the tax bill to add growth in the near-term, the longer-term impact on the economy is less certain.

The EUR/USD broke above 1.1825 and rose towards 1.1850. Whether we will see a run for 1.19 remains to be seen and hinges on the risk appetite for euros amid the year-end liquidity drain. Above 1.1865 we expect further gains towards 1.1920.

The GBP/USD remained within a sideways trading range between 1.3420 and 1.3330.

BoE Governor Carney speaks at a Parliament Hearing in London today at 13:15 UTC. If the pound breaks above 1.3420 we anticipate further gains towards 1.3470. If the pound however drops below 1.3340 it could head for a re-test of the 1.33-support.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will Payrolls Help Or Hurt The Greenback?

Dear Traders,

It’s payrolls day again and today’s U.S. jobs numbers could matter more than usual as investors assess the possibility of a steeper Federal reserve rate hike path in 2018. While the Fed has established a commitment to gradual monetary policy pacing even under the chairmanship of Mr. Powell, job and wage growth will shape the expectations for 2018 tightening. The central bank is expected to endorse a wait-and-see approach in the first half of the next year after a last rate hike in 2017, which is widely expected to be announced on next week’s Fed meeting.

In short, there is a greater risk of disappointment than an upside surprise when coming to the latest job numbers. If job growth comes in below expectations amid slowing wage growth, the dollar will give up its recent gains. If today’s NFP report surprises to the upside, the dollar will continue to rise amid progress on the tax-cut legislation.

Traders around the world will watch the NFP release at 13:30 UTC.

GBP/USD: The pound rose against the dollar on speculation that Ireland and Britain were close to a Brexit deal. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will have time until Sunday to resolve the deadlocked Brexit talks. The GBP/USD jumped back towards 1.3520 after it found support at 1.3320. With the pound trading above 1.3330 we now expect the pair to head for a test of 1.3630/50.

EUR/USD: The euro further declined against the greenback and appears to be headed for a test of the falling trendline of its recent downtrend channel. We anticipate a crucial support area between 1.1740 and 1.1710 and if that threshold remains intact we could see some pullback towards 1.1805 and possibly 1.1850.

We wish you profitable trades for today and a cozy and relaxing winter weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

EUR And GBP With A Tailwind, But Do We Underestimate USD?

Dear Traders,

Both British pound and euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar Thursday, although the dollar was also strong against other currencies. The dollar received a boost after Arizona Senator John McCain said he would support the tax plan but the tax reform bill is still far from done and dusted. Votes on the tax bill will resume today and while this could be dollar-positive we bear in mind that the markets are very sensitive to tax headlines.

On the economic docket, the ISM Manufacturing report due at 15:00 UTC will receive most attention while manufacturing in the U.S. is expected to remain robust in November.

Technically speaking, we continue to favor the upward trend in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The pound climbed above 1.35 and was able to stabilize above that threshold. If the cable is able to take the next hurdle at 1.3550, we probably see a run for 1.36 and possibly even 1.3650. The uptrend is considered intact as long as prices remain above 1.3450/1.34. For the sentiment to sour the pound would need to break below 1.3370.

Sterling traders may keep an eye on the U.K. PMI Manufacturing at 09:30 UTC.

The euro headed towards 1.1950 after it re-tested the 1.18-support level. If the euro climbs above 1.1935 we expect further gains towards 1.20. If 1.1930 however holds, remaining a short-term resistance for euro bulls, the single currency could fall back towards 1.1830 and 1.18.

We wish you good trades and a wonderful first weekend of December.

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

EUR/USD Approaches 1.1860, Next Target At 1.1905?

Dear Traders,

As expected, there was little movement in the Forex market with U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. These quiet conditions may continue today which is why we advise traders not to expect too much from the market and better stay out of new engagements or take profits at smaller targets.

EUR/USD: The euro traded with a tailwind and rose towards 1.1860. Once that level is breached we may see the euro extending its gains towards 1.1895. We bear in mind that the next crucial resistance level comes in around 1.1905. As long as the pair remains above 1.1770 the near-term bias is considered slightly bullish.

GBP/USD: The cable rejected the 1.3340-barrier and dropped back below 1.33. We now expect a near-term support to come in near 1.3265 from where we may see some leg up. Once the cable breaks above 1.3340 we anticipate further gains towards 1.3370 and possibly even 1.34. However, we recommend taking a cautious approach to markets that are illiquid.

Have a nice weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co