Posts

Will Payrolls Lead To Further Losses In EUR/USD And GBP/USD?

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Dear Traders,

The ECB’s policy decision came as a surprise for many market participants as policymakers decided to change their guidance by dropping a pledge to increase QE if needed. This tiny step to policy normalization shows confidence in the durability of euro-area growth. The euro initially rose on that hawkish bias but it was ECB President Draghi’s comments at the press conference that send the euro tumbling.

For euro bulls it should have been no surprise that the euro sharply reversed after another test of 1.2450 failed to provide a breakout. Rather, bearish momentum accelerated after the euro dropped below 1.2380 for a second time with the focus now turning to the 1.2280-support level.

The reason for the euro’s decline was that Mario Draghi gave a rather dovish speech saying that he sees interest rates at their present levels well beyond the end of QE. This dovish tone was all traders needed to sell euros toward lower levels.

The British pound was hurt by news from U.K. officials saying that they see “no Brexit deal until next year”. The pound fell toward a low of 1.3780 and currently struggles to hold above 1.38. If it falls below 1.3750 we will focus on lower targets at 1.3710 and 1.3610. A current resistance is however seen at 1.3890.

From the U.K. we have Manufacturing Production figures scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC but this report should take a backseat to the U.S. Nonfarm-payrolls report due at 13:30 UTC, which will receive more attention.

Heading into today’s NFP release, current expectations for the data are modest, with the unemployment rate expected to drop to 4.0 percent and the headline jobs figure to come in at 205K. The focus will also be on average hourly earnings.

Have a nice weekend.

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GBP/USD: Prepare For Higher Volatility Around May Speech

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Thursday has been a challenging trading day for traders of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD as the U.S. dollar suddenly u-turned after U.S. President Donald Trump promised to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The dollar significantly depreciated against the euro after the EU said that it will “react firmly to Trump’s tariffs”. Trump’s announcement has brought to the fore the next escalation in trade wars which could be a permanent downgrade for the greenback. Hawkish rhetoric from New York President Dudley took a backseat to fears of a trade war.

Neither major currency pair provided a sustained profit yesterday while we had to struggle with false breakouts and choppy swings. However, we hope for more profitable trading conditions today while the focus will be on the British pound.

GBP/USD

The pound tumbled after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May rejected the EU’s Brexit draft Wednesday and now the market is waiting for more clarity on the U.K.’s demands of late. Theresa May is delivering the sixth and final “Road to Brexit” speech today, detailing the Government’s plans for the U.K. outside the EU. The time for May’s speech has yet to be scheduled.

We expect higher volatility in the GBP/USD but advise caution as the pound is known for its exaggerated volatile swings.

We wish you good trades and a wonderful weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Roller-Coaster Day

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Yesterday can be described as a roller-coaster day in the markets which was not to our liking. News that officials in Beijing, China, have recommended slowing or halting purchases of U.S. bonds have sent the U.S. dollar sharply lower, at least in a short-term. However, the news was not enough to change the current sentiment and thus, the dollar ended the trading pretty much unchanged against the euro and pound.

The price development in the EUR/USD was as expected. We saw a pullback sending the euro toward 1.2020.

We now expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.20 and 1.1860. Current chances are still in favor of the bears, provided that the euro remains below 1.20. An important support zone is seen around 1.1850 that could be tested before the euro is primed for another leg up.

From the Eurozone we have the German GDP scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC, followed by the ECB meeting minutes at 12:30 UTC.

Trading the GBP/USD has recently proved difficult. From a technical perspective we expect slightly more bearish momentum to come. The pound could fall towards 1.3470 and 1.3450 before buyers are swooping in. A current resistance is however seen at 1.3540-50.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Senate Passes U.S. Tax Bill

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Dear Traders,

The British pound ended the trading day unchanged against the U.S. dollar after it fell to a low near 1.3330. The greenback on the other side, strengthened against most of its peers Tuesday with the exception of the euro. Investors awaited the final votes on the U.S. tax-cut legislation with the House taking another vote on the tax bill this morning.

Once the tax bill is behind us, investors will assess how the bill will impact the U.S. economy in the longer run. While the dollar could receive some fresh boost as investors anticipate the tax bill to add growth in the near-term, the longer-term impact on the economy is less certain.

The EUR/USD broke above 1.1825 and rose towards 1.1850. Whether we will see a run for 1.19 remains to be seen and hinges on the risk appetite for euros amid the year-end liquidity drain. Above 1.1865 we expect further gains towards 1.1920.

The GBP/USD remained within a sideways trading range between 1.3420 and 1.3330.

BoE Governor Carney speaks at a Parliament Hearing in London today at 13:15 UTC. If the pound breaks above 1.3420 we anticipate further gains towards 1.3470. If the pound however drops below 1.3340 it could head for a re-test of the 1.33-support.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Will Payrolls Help Or Hurt The Greenback?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

It’s payrolls day again and today’s U.S. jobs numbers could matter more than usual as investors assess the possibility of a steeper Federal reserve rate hike path in 2018. While the Fed has established a commitment to gradual monetary policy pacing even under the chairmanship of Mr. Powell, job and wage growth will shape the expectations for 2018 tightening. The central bank is expected to endorse a wait-and-see approach in the first half of the next year after a last rate hike in 2017, which is widely expected to be announced on next week’s Fed meeting.

In short, there is a greater risk of disappointment than an upside surprise when coming to the latest job numbers. If job growth comes in below expectations amid slowing wage growth, the dollar will give up its recent gains. If today’s NFP report surprises to the upside, the dollar will continue to rise amid progress on the tax-cut legislation.

Traders around the world will watch the NFP release at 13:30 UTC.

GBP/USD: The pound rose against the dollar on speculation that Ireland and Britain were close to a Brexit deal. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will have time until Sunday to resolve the deadlocked Brexit talks. The GBP/USD jumped back towards 1.3520 after it found support at 1.3320. With the pound trading above 1.3330 we now expect the pair to head for a test of 1.3630/50.

EUR/USD: The euro further declined against the greenback and appears to be headed for a test of the falling trendline of its recent downtrend channel. We anticipate a crucial support area between 1.1740 and 1.1710 and if that threshold remains intact we could see some pullback towards 1.1805 and possibly 1.1850.

We wish you profitable trades for today and a cozy and relaxing winter weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

EUR And GBP With A Tailwind, But Do We Underestimate USD?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Both British pound and euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar Thursday, although the dollar was also strong against other currencies. The dollar received a boost after Arizona Senator John McCain said he would support the tax plan but the tax reform bill is still far from done and dusted. Votes on the tax bill will resume today and while this could be dollar-positive we bear in mind that the markets are very sensitive to tax headlines.

On the economic docket, the ISM Manufacturing report due at 15:00 UTC will receive most attention while manufacturing in the U.S. is expected to remain robust in November.

Technically speaking, we continue to favor the upward trend in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The pound climbed above 1.35 and was able to stabilize above that threshold. If the cable is able to take the next hurdle at 1.3550, we probably see a run for 1.36 and possibly even 1.3650. The uptrend is considered intact as long as prices remain above 1.3450/1.34. For the sentiment to sour the pound would need to break below 1.3370.

Sterling traders may keep an eye on the U.K. PMI Manufacturing at 09:30 UTC.

The euro headed towards 1.1950 after it re-tested the 1.18-support level. If the euro climbs above 1.1935 we expect further gains towards 1.20. If 1.1930 however holds, remaining a short-term resistance for euro bulls, the single currency could fall back towards 1.1830 and 1.18.

We wish you good trades and a wonderful first weekend of December.

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

EUR/USD Approaches 1.1860, Next Target At 1.1905?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

As expected, there was little movement in the Forex market with U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. These quiet conditions may continue today which is why we advise traders not to expect too much from the market and better stay out of new engagements or take profits at smaller targets.

EUR/USD: The euro traded with a tailwind and rose towards 1.1860. Once that level is breached we may see the euro extending its gains towards 1.1895. We bear in mind that the next crucial resistance level comes in around 1.1905. As long as the pair remains above 1.1770 the near-term bias is considered slightly bullish.

GBP/USD: The cable rejected the 1.3340-barrier and dropped back below 1.33. We now expect a near-term support to come in near 1.3265 from where we may see some leg up. Once the cable breaks above 1.3340 we anticipate further gains towards 1.3370 and possibly even 1.34. However, we recommend taking a cautious approach to markets that are illiquid.

Have a nice weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

GBP/USD Trends Upwards While EUR/USD Remains Stuck In Consolidation Phase

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Monday was characterized by a weakening U.S. dollar which suffered a slight setback against its counterparts. The recent weakness can be attributed to uncertainty over the future monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve. New York Fed President William Dudley plans to retire next year and with Dudley’s planned exit, the unfilled board seats create uncertainty over the Fed’s approach to policy in the coming year.

The EUR/USD extended its consolidative mode into the new week and traders are still struggling with false breakouts and limited price swings. ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision today at 9:00 UTC but these opening remarks might be not enough to free the euro from its lethargy. Technically speaking, we now wait for a break below 1.1570 to sell euros whereas on the topside, we expect potential gains to be limited until 1.1660 and 1.17 amidst subdued price action.

The best performer was the GBP/USD which rose towards 1.3180, providing buyers a good profit yesterday. The latest upward move is not surprising given the fact that the pound continues to oscillate within its range between 1.3340 and 1.30.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

All Eyes On The FOMC Decision Even Though No Changes Are Expected

/in /by

Dear Traders,

While the euro ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged, the pound sterling headed for a test of 1.33 but reversed some of its gains just shy of that barrier. Whether we will see a sustained breakout above 1.33 remains to be seen and hinges on the risk appetite for pounds ahead of tomorrow’s BoE Super Thursday. The bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade but this move is shrouded in suspicion. We will discuss the risk potential in tomorrow’s analysis.

Today’s focus will be on the Federal Reserve and the market’s appetite for U.S. dollars. It could thus be a turbulent trading day with traders bracing for higher volatility in all USD crosses.

The FOMC rate decision today at 18:00 UTC is top listing but the market is virtually certain that no change to the benchmark will be made this month. Economists expect policy makers to keep rates on hold for now and increase them at the December meeting. The probability of a December rate hike is at 83 percent. However, even if today’s Fed decision is unlikely to serve as a big market mover it could still surprise dollar bulls. In case of a less hawkish outcome, in other words, if there are a number of hawkish dissents, the dollar could give up some of its gains. Let us be surprised.

With regard to the U.S. tax reforms, the House Republicans are expected to release the tax bill text on Thursday.

We also have the ADP Report scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC followed by the ISM Manufacturing Index due at 14:00 UTC, so there is plenty of economic data that could affect the price action in the greenback today.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

EUR/USD And GBP/USD Bounce Off Resistance Levels; USD Stronger

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Positive developments in Washington and hopes that the U.S. tax reform bill could pass the House have been supportive for the U.S. dollar. The greenback advanced against the euro and British pound, driving both EUR/USD and GBP/USD towards important support levels. The U.S. Senate adopted a fiscal 2018 budget resolution on Thursday that House GOP leaders agreed to accept.

On the flipside, the euro received no support from political developments in Spain. Madrid is finalizing plans to take control of Catalonia and to suspend the region’s autonomy. This step should keep the political situation in Spain tense.

The pound fell on disappointing U.K. data and speculation that the upcoming Bank of England rate hike could be a one-off. The BoE is forecast to hike rates on their next monetary policy meeting on November 2 but analysts doubt that there could be more than one rate increase in the medium-term. For the time being, we expect the pound to trade with volatile swings between 1.3250 and 1.30. As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, for bearish momentum to accelerate the pound will have to break the 1.31-support significantly.

EUR/USD: As expected, the resistance level at 1.1850/60 has proved correct and the euro tested this barrier before reversing some of its gains. We now expect the pair to trade lower and focus on targets at 1.1770 and 1.17.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to hold a speech today but since this speech is only due after markets close, it will not affect the price action.

We wish you good trades and a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co