Week Starts With A Correction, Focus on ECB

The new week began with a correction in the market with the euro giving up some of its recent gains in the early trading hours while elsewhere, crypto investors are waking up with a sore head after the latest ‘peak party’ in the biggest cryptocurrencies.

This week the focus will be on the European Central Bank decision on Thursday. The ECB is expected to keep its policy unchanged but the tone of the press conference may offer some hints on the plans to pare back monetary policy support. However, a full assessment of the pace of asset purchases will not happen until June, so it’s probably too soon for a debate about a policy shift and bond-buying to be tapered.

EUR/USD

After the euro failed to overcome the 1.1995-barrier, we saw the pair correcting its recent gains. We expect further losses towards 1.19 ahead of the ECB decision. If the euro falls below 1.1890, we will turn our focus to a lower support area which ranges from 1.1875 to 1.1835 (orange ellipse). On the upside and ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision, euro bulls could wait for a break above 1.2060 in order to buy euros towards 1.21 and 1.2170.

The pound sterling rebounded against the U.S. dollar as the U.K. economy is building up momentum while restrictions ease further. The Bank of England anticipates a rapid recovery with almost two thirds of adults in the U.K. immunized against the coronavirus.

Taking a look at the technical picture in the GBP/USD we see the pound breaking out of its recent downtrend channel, heading towards 1.3850. Above 1.3850 we focus on a higher target at 1.3915 where we see a short-term resistance for sterling bulls. Above 1.3920 the focus turns to the crucial 1.40 resistance. A short-term support is however seen at 1.3750.