We wish everyone a good start to the new week.
This week will be dominated by the Federal Reserve meeting and the Fed’s statement on Wednesday. Traders will pay attention to updated economic projections and potential comments on rising Treasury yields. While no change in the Fed’s rate-hike timing is expected, economists forecast that a strong recovery from the pandemic recession is likely to prompt the Fed to lift interest rates in 2023 but they also expect the central bank’s own forecasts will show that rates will stay on hold near zero throughout the that year.
President Joe Biden’s massive fiscal stimulus, monetary support and accelerating vaccinations are boosting the economic outlook and could prompt the Fed to raise its estimates of 2021 growth in its first quarterly economic forecasts of the year. As for the sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields in the past month Fed Chair Jerome Powell has attributed the increase to improving prospects and said it doesn’t appear to be troubling.
In a nutshell, the Fed will remain in a wait-and-see mode with no major change in the statement. The focus will be on economic projections and on the Fed’s latest dot plot.
On Thursday we will have the Bank of England rate decision and while also the BoE is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged, the BoE’s decision will take a backseat to the Fed’s decision. The BoE is unlikely to offer a surprise but the monetary policy committee’s view on inflation or any commentary regarding the recent rally in global bond yields will be of interest for traders.
The pound was trading on a softer note last Friday, succumbing to the greenback’s strength. As long as 1.40 remains a crucial hurdle for sterling bulls we expect bearish momentum to accelerate after a break below 1.3860. A lower support is seen at around 1.3780 and if that level breaks, we expect further losses towards 1.36.
EUR/USD: For the time being, we will focus on a trading range between 1.2050 and 1.1820.
The index touched a record high at 14607 and more gains could be in play, provided that the index holds above 14500. We see a next higher target at 14720 whereas on the downside, we will pay attention to breakouts below 14500 and 14450.
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