No Demand For Safe Havens?

Instead of benefitting from safe haven flows, the U.S. dollar paired losses this week. A reason for the dollar’s fall could be diminishing rate hike expectations since Federal Reserve commentary has had a more dovish feel when considering further rate hikes.

On Thursday the U.S. headline inflation is seen weakening to 3.6 percent y/y in September from 3.7 percent y/y in August. Lower core inflation in the coming months would support the recent cautious commentary from the Fed, which has been adding slight downward pressure to Treasury yields. This results in less demand for safe haven currencies.

EUR/USD

The euro rose towards 1.0620 – the upper descending trendline of the pair’s latest downtrend channel. If the pair is able to rise and stabilize above 1.0660, chances shift in favor of the bulls and we expect to see a recovery rally towards 1.0770. Bears on the other side will watch out for renewed price breaks below 1.0540 in order to anticipate further bearish momentum and thus, maybe a fresh break of 1.05.

GBP/USD

The cable climbed towards 1.23 and thus, a higher target at 1.2350 comes into play. However, we do not expect a straight-lined upward movement and prepare for corrections towards 1.2220 and maybe even 1.2110. Above 1.2360, however, the bias turns in favor of the bulls with a next target at 1.2420.

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