The best performing currency pair on Thursday was the EUR/USD, which took another glimpse above 1.25 but was yet unable to hold that level. Our yesterday’s long signal has proved profitable while euro bulls lie in wait for a next leg up, targeting at 1.27. The question whether the single currency could be vulnerable to further gains will mainly depend on the demand for dollars following today’s U.S. labor market data.
One reason for the euro’s surge were reports that some ECB policymakers are pushing President Mario Draghi to give investors clearer guidance on when rates might rise. In a nutshell, these rumors confirm that the ECB is comfortable with the euro’s appreciation.
The most prominent event risk on the last trading day of this week will be the January Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 UTC and if payrolls exceed expectations combined with an uptick in wage growth we could see the dollar recovering some of its recent losses. However, traders should bear in mind that given the dollar’s strong downtrend, market participants might be inclined to sell USD at higher levels.
Recently, the release of the monthly NFP report failed to generate extreme volatility in the market, which is why traders now brace for a more muted market reaction. Whatever the case, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenarios.
The current uptrend channel is still intact and after the euro refrained from falling below 1.2385 the chances are in favor of further bullish momentum, driving the pair towards 1.2650 and possibly 1.27.
GBP/USD: There has been no significant correction in the recent performance of the cable with the pair following a clear uptrend. How the cable will trade within the next hours will however depend on the outcome of the payrolls. If the pound finds its way above 1.43 we focus on higher targets at 1.4380 and 1.4450. For bearish momentum to accelerate, the pound would first need to fall below 1.4220 and further 1.4185.
Have a beautiful weekend!
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