We welcome you to a new trading week which promises to be an interesting one with the Federal Reserve meeting and plenty of economic news scheduled for release throughout the entire week. While the economic calendar includes plenty of important news, such as first-quarter GDP numbers from the U.S., U.K. and the Eurozone, the main focus will be on the FOMC statement and the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates twice this year. The Fed is not expected to change monetary policy this month but market participants are eager to learn whether policy makers changed their outlook for rate increases in 2016 or maintain their hawkish policy stance.
Accordingly, the U.S. dollar will be back in focus this week and should determine the direction in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Apart from the FOMC meeting, traders will be watching Gross Domestic Product reports and German Unemployment numbers, scheduled for release on Thursday and Friday. The euro dropped as low as 1.1220 on Friday, confirming our presumption of renewed bearish momentum although euro bears have been fooled by the final upswing towards 1.14 before a reversal occurred. The euro would now need to break below 1.1190 in order to revive fresh bearish momentum towards 1.1150 and 1.1080. We expect the 1.1150 and 1.1080/70-levels to lend a crucial support to the EUR/USD before the focus shifts to a break of 1.1050 and 1.10. On the upside, possible resistance levels are currently seen at 1.13, 1.1335 and 1.1360.
The most important piece of U.K. data will be GDP numbers due for release on Wednesday. Taking a look at the daily chart we see sterling trading within an uptrend channel approaching important resistance levels. The next crucial resistance level is at 1.45, from where sterling will have the opportunity to start a decline. If the pair is able to break above 1.4515, next resistances are seen at 1.4560 and 1.46. As we generally maintain a bearish stance in this pair, we are looking for resistance levels which could cap on gains in the British pound. A current support-zone is seen at 1.43 – 1.4285.
This week starts off with the German IFO Index, due at 8:00 UTC today, a report which could have a short-term effect on the euro. Furthermore U.S. New Home Sales are scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC.
We wish everyone many profitable trades and a nice week.
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